ScoreProb
Oberliga - Niederrhein Germany Niederrhein - 13 2026

SSVg Velbert vs Fortuna Düsseldorf II

SSVg Velbert Home · Elo 1,460
Fri 13 Nov
UTC
Not started
Fortuna Düsseldorf II Away · Elo 1,505
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 7 Nov, 08:56 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Fortuna Düsseldorf II win
SSVg Velbert win
26.9%
Draw
22.8%
Fortuna Düsseldorf II winPick
50.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes59.2%
No40.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.563.5%
Under 2.536.5%

How much we know

SSVg Velbert history54 matches
Fortuna Düsseldorf II history57 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead
    7 Nov · 08:56 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    13 Nov · 18:30 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,663 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,748
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,387
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,845
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,914
70–79% Won 76.0% · said 73.9% · n 601
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 168
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (50.3%). Picks in that band won 55.7% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,845 matches.

Why Fortuna Düsseldorf II are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Fortuna Düsseldorf II are rated 45 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,505 against 1,460. On rating alone Fortuna Düsseldorf II would be expected to take 56% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.54 goals a game over 54 matches for SSVg Velbert, against 1.67 over 57 for Fortuna Düsseldorf II.

  • Fortuna Düsseldorf II concede fewer

    SSVg Velbert concede 1.80 a game, Fortuna Düsseldorf II 1.58.

  • SSVg Velbert games more often go over 2.5 goals

    70% of SSVg Velbert matches, against 58% for Fortuna Düsseldorf II. The model puts this match at 64% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
SSVg Velbert
Fortuna Düsseldorf II@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1459.8
ELO
1504.8
54
ELO · Matches
57
1459.8
Current Team ELO
1504.8
1504.8
Current Opponent ELO
1459.8
-44.92
Current ELO Difference
44.92
0.44
Expected score
0.56
54
History Matches
57
-0.04
Residual Mean
0.01
47.05
Overperformance
50.71
-0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.10
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.60
1.40
Goals for per game
2.80
2.80
Goals against per game
2.00
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
1.60
1.50
Goals for per game
2.10
2.40
Goals against per game
1.40
30.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.10
1.28
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.22
2.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
2.11
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.28
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
2.84
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.68
Overall performance9 signals
90
54
Matches
57
1.26
PPG
1.37
35.2%
Win rate
38.6%
20.4%
Draw rate
21.1%
44.4%
Loss rate
40.4%
79.6%
Over 1.5 rate
82.5%
70.4%
Over 2.5 rate
57.9%
46.3%
Over 3.5 rate
45.6%
2.41
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.84
Venue performance10 signals
100
26
Matches
27
1.15
PPG
1.33
34.6%
Win rate
37.0%
11.5%
Draw rate
22.2%
53.8%
Loss rate
40.7%
92.3%
Over 1.5 rate
88.9%
84.6%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
53.8%
Over 3.5 rate
51.9%
2.85
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.84
26
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.54
Goals for per game
1.67
74.1%
Scoring rate
70.2%
55.6%
BTTS rate
54.4%
1.77
Goals for per game
1.74
69.2%
Scoring rate
81.5%
53.8%
BTTS rate
66.7%
2.50
Goals for per game
3.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
54
History Matches
57
1.54
Goals Mean
1.67
1.46
Goals Std
1.38
74.1%
Scored 1+ rate
70.2%
37.0%
Scored 2+ rate
56.1%
24.1%
Scored 3+ rate
28.1%
1.77
Venue Goals Mean
1.74
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.80
Goals against per game
1.58
74.1%
Conceding rate
77.2%
2.12
Goals against per game
1.78
80.8%
Conceding rate
81.5%
0.50
Goals against per game
0.00
50.0%
Conceding rate
0.0%
54
History Matches
57
1.80
Conceded Mean
1.58
1.58
Conceded Std
1.24
57.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
47.4%
27.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
26.3%
2.12
Venue Conceded Mean
1.78
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
25.9%
Clean-sheet rate
22.8%
25.9%
Failed-to-score rate
29.8%
19.2%
Clean-sheet rate
18.5%
30.8%
Failed-to-score rate
18.5%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
25.9%
Clean-sheet rate
22.8%
25.9%
Failed-to-score rate
29.8%
19.2%
Clean-sheet rate
18.5%
30.8%
Failed-to-score rate
18.5%
25.9%
Clean-sheet rate
22.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
54
History Matches
57
0.96
Result entropy
0.97
2.41
Goal Difference Std
1.84
4.24
Stability score
3.36
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
53
Eligible Matches
56
14
Lead Matches
20
71.4%
Lead Win Rate
70.0%
0.76
Lead Points Retention
0.75
19
Trailing Matches
14
15.8%
Non-loss rate
14.3%
5.3%
Trailing Win Rate
7.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
53
Halftime Coverage Matches
56
0.70
First Half Goals For Mean
0.84
0.77
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.63
0.79
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.79
1.06
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.93
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
83.13
Rest days
91.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
1
1.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
23
Normal Rest History Matches
34
1.22
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.06
27
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.22
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.71
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
1
3.00
PPG
3.00
100.0%
Win rate
100.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
—
2
Current Competition Matches
1
3.00
Current Competition PPG
3.00
2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
3.00
5
Competition Season Count
5
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.68
Portability PPG Std
0.74
1.37
Portability PPG Range
1.82
42.24
Portability Score
40.45
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
54
Clean History Matches
57
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-44.92
PPG-0.11
GF-0.13
GA0.22
PPG0.00
PPG-0.18
PPG-0.40
PPG-0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate3.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate0.7%
Failed-to-score rate12.3%
History Matches-3
Goals Mean-0.13
Goals Std0.08
Scored 1+ rate3.9%
Scored 2+ rate-0.19
Scored 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Goals Mean0.03
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std0.06
History Matches-3
Conceded Mean0.22
Conceded Std0.34
Clean-sheet rate3.1%
Conceded 2+ rate10.0%
Conceded 3+ rate1.5%
Venue Conceded Mean0.34
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.83
History Matches-3
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std0.57
Stability score0.88
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.14
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.17
Eligible Matches-3
Lead Matches-6
Lead Win Rate1.4%
Lead Points Retention0.01
Trailing Matches5
Non-loss rate1.5%
Trailing Win Rate-0.02
Halftime Coverage Matches-3
First Half Goals For Mean-0.14
First Half Goals Against Mean0.15
Second Half Goals For Mean0.01
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.13
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Portability PPG Std-0.05
Portability PPG Range-0.46
Portability Score1.79
Rest days-7.92
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.67
Normal Rest History Matches-11
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.16
Long Rest History Matches6
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.49
Current Team ELO-44.92
Current Opponent ELO44.92
Current ELO Difference-89.83
Expected score-0.13
History Matches-3
Residual Mean-0.05
Overperformance-3.66
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.18

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

SSVg Velbert

W
SSVg Velbert4–1Holzheimer SG25 Oct · home
Pick: SSVg Velbert 66% · hit
W
Solingen-Wald2–3SSVg Velbert18 Oct · away
Pick: SSVg Velbert 41% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Fortuna Düsseldorf II

W
Holzheimer SG1–3Fortuna Düsseldorf II6 Nov · away
Pick: Fortuna Düsseldorf II 61% · hit
D
Fortuna Düsseldorf II1–1SC St. Tönis23 Oct · home
Pick: Fortuna Düsseldorf II 60% · missed
W
BW Dingden0–2Fortuna Düsseldorf II16 Oct · away
Pick: Fortuna Düsseldorf II 57% · hit
L
Schonnebeck2–1Fortuna Düsseldorf II4 Oct · away
Pick: Schonnebeck 39% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

SSVg Velbert and Fortuna Düsseldorf II meet in Oberliga - Niederrhein on Friday 13 November 2026, kickoff 18:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 7 Nov, 08:56 UTC: SSVg Velbert win 26.9%, draw 22.8%, Fortuna Düsseldorf II win 50.3%. The pick is Fortuna Düsseldorf II win. Over 2.5 goals: 63.5%. Both teams to score: 59.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.