Stella vs AFAD
Match result probability Model pick: Draw
Stella win
30.8%
DrawPick
35.7%
AFAD win
33.5%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes44.3%
No55.7%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.534.5%
Under 2.565.5%
How much we know
Stella history43 matches
AFAD history47 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Draw
Over / under 2.5: ours Under
Both teams to score: ours No
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 7 h ahead31 Oct · 08:14 UTC
- Re-published 9 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 2 Nov · 19:23 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 14:30 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre5 Nov · 15:30 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (35.7%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.
Why a draw is the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
AFAD are rated 67 Elo points higher
Elo 1,568 against 1,501. On rating alone AFAD would be expected to take 60% of the points on offer.
-
AFAD score far more
0.77 goals a game over 43 matches for Stella, against 1.30 over 47 for AFAD.
-
Defences are close
Stella concede 0.93 a game, AFAD 0.91.
-
AFAD games more often go over 2.5 goals
26% of Stella matches, against 36% for AFAD. The model puts this match at 35% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 24 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1500.7
ELO
1568.1
43
ELO · Matches
47
1500.7
Current Team ELO
1568.1
1568.1
Current Opponent ELO
1500.7
-67.43
Current ELO Difference
67.43
0.40
Expected score
0.60
43
History Matches
47
0.01
Residual Mean
0.07
50.58
Overperformance
55.17
0.15
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.19
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
2.60
PPG
3.00
1.20
Goals for per game
3.20
0.40
Goals against per game
0.60
80.0%
Win rate
100.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
2.20
0.90
Goals for per game
2.10
0.70
Goals against per game
0.90
40.0%
Win rate
70.0%
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.10
0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std
2.17
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.90
0.64
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.83
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
0.75
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.52
Overall performance9 signals 90
43
Matches
47
1.28
PPG
1.66
32.6%
Win rate
46.8%
30.2%
Draw rate
25.5%
37.2%
Loss rate
27.7%
55.8%
Over 1.5 rate
59.6%
25.6%
Over 2.5 rate
36.2%
4.7%
Over 3.5 rate
12.8%
1.36
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.68
Venue performance10 signals 100
23
Matches
23
1.35
PPG
1.43
30.4%
Win rate
39.1%
43.5%
Draw rate
26.1%
26.1%
Loss rate
34.8%
52.2%
Over 1.5 rate
65.2%
21.7%
Over 2.5 rate
30.4%
4.3%
Over 3.5 rate
4.3%
0.98
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.35
23
History Matches
23
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
0.77
Goals for per game
1.30
51.2%
Scoring rate
66.0%
32.6%
BTTS rate
40.4%
0.78
Goals for per game
1.00
56.5%
Scoring rate
65.2%
43.5%
BTTS rate
43.5%
43
History Matches
47
0.77
Goals Mean
1.30
0.91
Goals Std
1.49
51.2%
Scored 1+ rate
66.0%
18.6%
Scored 2+ rate
36.2%
7.0%
Scored 3+ rate
12.8%
0.78
Venue Goals Mean
1.00
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.93
Goals against per game
0.91
65.1%
Conceding rate
61.7%
0.78
Goals against per game
1.00
65.2%
Conceding rate
73.9%
43
History Matches
47
0.93
Conceded Mean
0.91
0.85
Conceded Std
0.92
23.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
21.3%
4.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
8.5%
0.78
Venue Conceded Mean
1.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
34.9%
Clean-sheet rate
38.3%
48.8%
Failed-to-score rate
34.0%
34.8%
Clean-sheet rate
26.1%
43.5%
Failed-to-score rate
34.8%
34.9%
Clean-sheet rate
38.3%
48.8%
Failed-to-score rate
34.0%
34.8%
Clean-sheet rate
26.1%
43.5%
Failed-to-score rate
34.8%
34.9%
Clean-sheet rate
38.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
43
History Matches
47
1.00
Result entropy
0.96
1.36
Goal Difference Std
1.68
0.34
Stability score
3.57
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
40
Eligible Matches
44
12
Lead Matches
12
83.3%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.89
Lead Points Retention
1.00
12
Trailing Matches
10
8.3%
Non-loss rate
50.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
10.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
40
Halftime Coverage Matches
44
0.38
First Half Goals For Mean
0.50
0.48
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.43
0.38
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.75
0.48
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.48
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
166.0
Rest days
165.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
19
Normal Rest History Matches
23
1.16
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.70
22
Long Rest History Matches
23
1.45
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.70
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.20
Portability PPG Std
0.11
0.40
Portability PPG Range
0.25
71.43
Portability Score
82.02
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
43
Clean History Matches
47
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-67.43
PPG-0.38
GF-0.53
GA0.02
PPG-0.09
PPG-0.40
PPG-0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Failed-to-score rate14.8%
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate8.7%
Failed-to-score rate8.7%
History Matches-4
Goals Mean-0.53
Goals Std-0.58
Scored 1+ rate-0.15
Scored 2+ rate-0.18
Scored 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Goals Mean-0.22
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-1.47
History Matches-4
Conceded Mean0.02
Conceded Std-0.07
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Conceded 2+ rate2.0%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Conceded Mean-0.22
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.19
History Matches-4
Result entropy0.03
Goal Difference Std-0.32
Stability score-3.23
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.23
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.77
Eligible Matches-4
Lead Matches0
Lead Win Rate-0.17
Lead Points Retention-0.11
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate-0.42
Trailing Win Rate-0.10
Halftime Coverage Matches-4
First Half Goals For Mean-0.13
First Half Goals Against Mean0.04
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.38
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.00
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.09
Portability PPG Range0.15
Portability Score-10.59
Rest days1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches-4
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.54
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.24
Current Team ELO-67.43
Current Opponent ELO67.43
Current ELO Difference-134.9
Expected score-0.19
History Matches-4
Residual Mean-0.07
Overperformance-4.59
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.04
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
About this match
Stella and AFAD meet in Ligue 1 on Thursday 5 November 2026, kickoff 15:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:14 UTC: Stella win 30.8%, draw 35.7%, AFAD win 33.5%. The pick is a draw. Over 2.5 goals: 34.5%. Both teams to score: 44.3%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.