Sunrise vs Al Merreikh
Sunrise
Thu 5 Nov
UTC
Not started
Al Merreikh
Match result probability Model pick: Draw
Sunrise win
34.5%
DrawPick
36.2%
Al Merreikh win
29.4%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes47.8%
No52.2%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.543.5%
Under 2.556.5%
How much we know
Sunrise history0 matches
Al Merreikh history55 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Draw
Over / under 2.5: ours Under
Both teams to score: ours No
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead30 Oct · 08:38 UTC
- Re-published 13 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 2 Nov · 19:23 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 12:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre5 Nov · 13:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (36.2%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.
Why a draw is the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Al Merreikh are rated 61 Elo points higher
Elo 1,561 against 1,500. On rating alone Al Merreikh would be expected to take 59% of the points on offer.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Sunrise
Al Merreikh
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1500.0
ELO
1560.9
0
ELO · Matches
55
1500.0
Current Team ELO
1560.9
1560.9
Current Opponent ELO
1500.0
-60.87
Current ELO Difference
60.87
0.41
Expected score
0.59
0
History Matches
55
—
Residual Mean
0.05
—
Overperformance
53.51
—
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.21
Recent form16 signals 160
0
Matches
5
—
PPG
0.20
—
Goals for per game
0.60
—
Goals against per game
1.60
—
Win rate
0.0%
0
Matches
10
—
PPG
1.10
—
Goals for per game
1.30
—
Goals against per game
1.00
—
Win rate
30.0%
—
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
—
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.42
—
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
—
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.89
—
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
—
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.85
Overall performance9 signals 90
0
Matches
55
—
PPG
1.65
—
Win rate
43.6%
—
Draw rate
34.5%
—
Loss rate
21.8%
—
Over 1.5 rate
50.9%
—
Over 2.5 rate
30.9%
—
Over 3.5 rate
9.1%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.30
Venue performance10 signals 100
0
Matches
29
—
PPG
1.66
—
Win rate
44.8%
—
Draw rate
31.0%
—
Loss rate
24.1%
—
Over 1.5 rate
44.8%
—
Over 2.5 rate
20.7%
—
Over 3.5 rate
6.9%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.41
0
History Matches
29
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
—
Goals for per game
1.07
—
Scoring rate
69.1%
—
BTTS rate
38.2%
—
Goals for per game
0.93
—
Scoring rate
65.5%
—
BTTS rate
27.6%
0
History Matches
55
—
Goals Mean
1.07
—
Goals Std
0.99
—
Scored 1+ rate
69.1%
—
Scored 2+ rate
25.5%
—
Scored 3+ rate
10.9%
—
Venue Goals Mean
0.93
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
—
Goals against per game
0.71
—
Conceding rate
52.7%
—
Goals against per game
0.66
—
Conceding rate
48.3%
0
History Matches
55
—
Conceded Mean
0.71
—
Conceded Std
0.85
—
Conceded 2+ rate
12.7%
—
Conceded 3+ rate
3.6%
—
Venue Conceded Mean
0.66
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
—
Clean-sheet rate
47.3%
—
Failed-to-score rate
30.9%
—
Clean-sheet rate
51.7%
—
Failed-to-score rate
34.5%
—
Clean-sheet rate
47.3%
—
Failed-to-score rate
30.9%
—
Clean-sheet rate
51.7%
—
Failed-to-score rate
34.5%
—
Clean-sheet rate
47.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
0
History Matches
55
—
Result entropy
0.97
—
Goal Difference Std
1.30
—
Stability score
3.40
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
0
Eligible Matches
49
0
Lead Matches
13
—
Lead Win Rate
84.6%
—
Lead Points Retention
0.90
0
Trailing Matches
6
—
Non-loss rate
50.0%
—
Trailing Win Rate
16.7%
Goal timing5 signals 50
0
Halftime Coverage Matches
49
—
First Half Goals For Mean
0.47
—
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.33
—
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.61
—
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.33
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
—
Rest days
157.9
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
11
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.82
0
Normal Rest History Matches
26
—
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.58
0
Long Rest History Matches
17
—
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.76
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
0
Competition Season Count
4
0
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
—
Portability PPG Std
0.01
—
Portability PPG Range
0.02
—
Portability Score
98.14
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
0
Clean History Matches
55
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGGFGAPPGPPGPPGPPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreClean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rateClean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rateGoals MeanGoals StdScored 1+ rateScored 2+ rateScored 3+ rateVenue Goals MeanRecent 10 Goals MeanRecent 10 Goals StdConceded MeanConceded StdClean-sheet rateConceded 2+ rateConceded 3+ rateVenue Conceded MeanRecent 10 Conceded MeanRecent 10 Conceded StdResult entropyGoal Difference StdStability scoreRecent 10 Result EntropyRecent 10 Goal Difference StdLead Win RateLead Points RetentionNon-loss rateTrailing Win RateFirst Half Goals For MeanFirst Half Goals Against MeanSecond Half Goals For MeanSecond Half Goals Against MeanCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreRest daysShort Rest Points Per MatchNormal Rest Points Per MatchLong Rest Points Per MatchResidual MeanOverperformanceRecent 10 Residual Mean
ELO-60.87
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-55
History Matches-29
History Matches-55
History Matches-55
History Matches-55
Eligible Matches-49
Lead Matches-13
Trailing Matches-6
Halftime Coverage Matches-49
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-4
Eligible Competition Season Count-3
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-11
Normal Rest History Matches-26
Long Rest History Matches-17
Current Team ELO-60.87
Current Opponent ELO60.87
Current ELO Difference-121.7
Expected score-0.17
History Matches-55
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Sunrise
D
Gicumbi0–0Sunrise1 Nov · away
Pick: Gicumbi 61% · missed L
Amagaju4–0Sunrise17 Oct · away
Pick: Amagaju 64% · hit D
Sunrise1–1Gasogi United14 Oct · home
Pick: Sunrise 36% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
Al Merreikh
D
Al Merreikh1–1Mukura31 Oct · home
Pick: Al Merreikh 45% · missed W
Police0–1Al Merreikh28 Oct · away
Pick: Draw 36% · missed L
Horoya1–0Al Merreikh18 Oct · away
Pick: Horoya 38% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Sunrise and Al Merreikh meet in National Soccer League on Thursday 5 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC: Sunrise win 34.5%, draw 36.2%, Al Merreikh win 29.4%. The pick is a draw. Over 2.5 goals: 43.5%. Both teams to score: 47.8%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.