ScoreProb
Professional Development League England Regular Season 2026

Swansea City U21 vs Bristol City U21

Swansea City U21 Home · Elo 1,516
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Bristol City U21 Away · Elo 1,477
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Swansea City U21 win
Swansea City U21 winPick
41.7%
Draw
23.5%
Bristol City U21 win
34.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes71.2%
No28.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.572.0%
Under 2.528.0%

How much we know

Swansea City U21 history57 matches
Bristol City U21 history52 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 19:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (41.7%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Swansea City U21 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Swansea City U21 are rated 38 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,516 against 1,477. On rating alone Swansea City U21 would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Swansea City U21 score more

    2.19 goals a game over 57 matches for Swansea City U21, against 1.87 over 52 for Bristol City U21.

  • Swansea City U21 concede fewer

    Swansea City U21 concede 1.68 a game, Bristol City U21 2.13.

  • Bristol City U21 games more often go over 2.5 goals

    74% of Swansea City U21 matches, against 83% for Bristol City U21. The model puts this match at 72% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Swansea City U21
Bristol City U21
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1515.6
ELO
1477.5
57
ELO · Matches
52
1515.6
Current Team ELO
1477.5
1477.5
Current Opponent ELO
1515.6
38.09
Current ELO Difference
-38.09
0.55
Expected score
0.45
57
History Matches
52
0.00
Residual Mean
-0.02
50.10
Overperformance
48.52
-0.12
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.13
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
1.60
1.40
Goals for per game
1.80
1.60
Goals against per game
1.80
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
1.60
1.80
Goals for per game
2.00
1.40
Goals against per game
1.90
30.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.00
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.77
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.90
1.02
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.14
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
2.01
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.30
Overall performance9 signals
90
57
Matches
52
1.58
PPG
1.21
47.4%
Win rate
32.7%
15.8%
Draw rate
23.1%
36.8%
Loss rate
44.2%
86.0%
Over 1.5 rate
98.1%
73.7%
Over 2.5 rate
82.7%
59.6%
Over 3.5 rate
53.8%
2.62
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.87
Venue performance10 signals
100
25
Matches
26
1.76
PPG
0.73
52.0%
Win rate
19.2%
20.0%
Draw rate
15.4%
28.0%
Loss rate
65.4%
92.0%
Over 1.5 rate
96.2%
72.0%
Over 2.5 rate
84.6%
52.0%
Over 3.5 rate
53.8%
2.56
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.88
25
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.19
Goals for per game
1.87
82.5%
Scoring rate
92.3%
61.4%
BTTS rate
84.6%
2.32
Goals for per game
1.54
84.0%
Scoring rate
84.6%
56.0%
BTTS rate
80.8%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.50
50.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
57
History Matches
52
2.19
Goals Mean
1.87
1.73
Goals Std
1.06
82.5%
Scored 1+ rate
92.3%
54.4%
Scored 2+ rate
59.6%
38.6%
Scored 3+ rate
26.9%
2.32
Venue Goals Mean
1.54
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.68
Goals against per game
2.13
77.2%
Conceding rate
92.3%
1.32
Goals against per game
2.62
68.0%
Conceding rate
96.2%
2.50
Goals against per game
1.50
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
57
History Matches
52
1.68
Conceded Mean
2.13
1.50
Conceded Std
1.44
43.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
65.4%
26.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
28.8%
1.32
Venue Conceded Mean
2.62
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
22.8%
Clean-sheet rate
7.7%
17.5%
Failed-to-score rate
7.7%
32.0%
Clean-sheet rate
3.8%
16.0%
Failed-to-score rate
15.4%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
22.8%
Clean-sheet rate
7.7%
17.5%
Failed-to-score rate
7.7%
32.0%
Clean-sheet rate
3.8%
16.0%
Failed-to-score rate
15.4%
22.8%
Clean-sheet rate
7.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
57
History Matches
52
0.92
Result entropy
0.97
2.62
Goal Difference Std
1.87
7.77
Stability score
3.09
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
57
Eligible Matches
52
23
Lead Matches
14
82.6%
Lead Win Rate
50.0%
0.86
Lead Points Retention
0.64
13
Trailing Matches
17
15.4%
Non-loss rate
29.4%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
23.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
57
Halftime Coverage Matches
52
1.02
First Half Goals For Mean
0.81
0.79
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.96
1.18
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.06
0.89
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.17
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
73.33
Rest days
76.33
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
6
Short Rest History Matches
1
1.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
28
Normal Rest History Matches
33
1.54
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.09
22
Long Rest History Matches
17
1.77
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.53
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
0.00
PPG
1.00
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
100.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
0.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.00
2
Current Competition Matches
2
0.00
Current Competition PPG
1.00
-1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
7
Competition Season Count
5
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.21
Portability PPG Std
0.32
0.57
Portability PPG Range
0.73
70.74
Portability Score
61.25
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
57
Clean History Matches
52
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO38.09
PPG0.37
GF0.33
GA-0.45
PPG-1.00
PPG1.03
PPG-0.80
PPG-0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate15.1%
Failed-to-score rate9.9%
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate28.2%
Failed-to-score rate0.6%
History Matches5
Goals Mean0.33
Goals Std0.67
Scored 1+ rate-0.10
Scored 2+ rate-0.05
Scored 3+ rate11.7%
Venue Goals Mean0.78
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.63
History Matches5
Conceded Mean-0.45
Conceded Std0.06
Clean-sheet rate15.1%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.22
Conceded 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Conceded Mean-1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.12
History Matches5
Result entropy-0.05
Goal Difference Std0.75
Stability score4.68
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.03
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.71
Eligible Matches5
Lead Matches9
Lead Win Rate32.6%
Lead Points Retention0.21
Trailing Matches-4
Non-loss rate-0.14
Trailing Win Rate-0.24
Halftime Coverage Matches5
First Half Goals For Mean0.21
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.17
Second Half Goals For Mean0.12
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.28
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.50
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.11
Portability PPG Range-0.16
Portability Score9.49
Rest days-3.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches5
Short Rest Points Per Match1.33
Normal Rest History Matches-5
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.44
Long Rest History Matches5
Long Rest Points Per Match0.24
Current Team ELO38.09
Current Opponent ELO-38.09
Current ELO Difference76.17
Expected score0.11
History Matches5
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance1.58
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.24

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Swansea City U21

W
Birmingham City U210–3Swansea City U2130 Oct · away
Pick: Swansea City U21 70% · hit
W
Swansea City U213–2Charlton Athletic U2126 Oct · home
Pick: Swansea City U21 44% · hit
L
Coventry City U212–0Swansea City U2120 Oct · away
Pick: Coventry City U21 47% · hit
W
Colchester United U211–2Swansea City U216 Oct · away
Pick: Swansea City U21 51% · hit
W
Hull City U210–2Swansea City U211 Sep · away
Pick: Hull City U21 55% · missed

Bristol City U21

L
Bristol City U211–3Millwall U2127 Oct · home
Pick: Bristol City U21 54% · missed
D
Norwich City U211–1Bristol City U2121 Oct · away
Pick: Bristol City U21 42% · missed
L
Queens Park Rangers U213–1Bristol City U2118 Oct · away
Pick: Queens Park Rangers U21 45% · hit
L
Bristol City U213–5Exeter U2112 Oct · home
Pick: Bristol City U21 60% · missed
W
Bristol City U214–1Charlton Athletic U216 Oct · home
Pick: Bristol City U21 46% · hit

About this match

Swansea City U21 and Bristol City U21 meet in Professional Development League on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 19:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Swansea City U21 win 41.7%, draw 23.5%, Bristol City U21 win 34.8%. The pick is Swansea City U21 win. Over 2.5 goals: 72.0%. Both teams to score: 71.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.