ScoreProb
FAW Championship Wales South - 12 2026

Swansea University vs Treowen Stars

Swansea University Home · Elo 1,539
Fri 13 Nov
UTC
Not started
Treowen Stars Away · Elo 1,510
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 7 Nov, 08:56 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Swansea University win
Swansea University winPick
45.3%
Draw
20.7%
Treowen Stars win
34.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes61.6%
No38.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.571.0%
Under 2.529.0%

How much we know

Swansea University history6 matches
Treowen Stars history37 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead
    7 Nov · 08:56 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    13 Nov · 19:30 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,663 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,748
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,387
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,845
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,914
70–79% Won 76.0% · said 73.9% · n 601
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 168
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (45.3%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,387 matches.

Why Swansea University are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Swansea University are rated 29 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,539 against 1,510. On rating alone Swansea University would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.

  • Swansea University score more

    2.83 goals a game over 6 matches for Swansea University, against 1.89 over 37 for Treowen Stars.

  • Swansea University concede fewer

    Swansea University concede 1.33 a game, Treowen Stars 2.00.

  • Swansea University games more often go over 2.5 goals

    100% of Swansea University matches, against 73% for Treowen Stars. The model puts this match at 71% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Swansea University
Treowen Stars@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1538.5
ELO
1509.6
6
ELO · Matches
37
1538.5
Current Team ELO
1509.6
1509.6
Current Opponent ELO
1538.5
28.88
Current ELO Difference
-28.88
0.54
Expected score
0.46
6
History Matches
37
0.29
Residual Mean
0.01
56.62
Overperformance
50.72
0.29
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.12
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
2.40
3.00
Goals for per game
3.00
1.40
Goals against per game
1.40
80.0%
Win rate
80.0%
6
Matches
10
2.50
PPG
1.80
2.83
Goals for per game
2.30
1.33
Goals against per game
2.20
83.3%
Win rate
60.0%
2.83
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.30
1.21
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.49
1.33
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.20
2.13
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.83
0.41
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.61
3.04
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.95
Overall performance9 signals
90
6
Matches
37
2.50
PPG
1.38
83.3%
Win rate
37.8%
0.0%
Draw rate
24.3%
16.7%
Loss rate
37.8%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
91.9%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
73.0%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
56.8%
3.04
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.32
Venue performance10 signals
100
2
Matches
19
1.50
PPG
1.32
50.0%
Win rate
36.8%
0.0%
Draw rate
21.1%
50.0%
Loss rate
42.1%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
94.7%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
78.9%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
57.9%
4.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.34
2
History Matches
19
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.83
Goals for per game
1.89
100.0%
Scoring rate
83.8%
50.0%
BTTS rate
67.6%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.95
100.0%
Scoring rate
78.9%
50.0%
BTTS rate
73.7%
3.50
Goals for per game
2.75
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
25.0%
BTTS rate
75.0%
6
History Matches
37
2.83
Goals Mean
1.89
1.21
Goals Std
1.33
100.0%
Scored 1+ rate
83.8%
83.3%
Scored 2+ rate
59.5%
66.7%
Scored 3+ rate
27.0%
2.00
Venue Goals Mean
1.95
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.33
Goals against per game
2.00
50.0%
Conceding rate
83.8%
3.00
Goals against per game
2.32
50.0%
Conceding rate
94.7%
0.25
Goals against per game
1.50
25.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
6
History Matches
37
1.33
Conceded Mean
2.00
2.13
Conceded Std
1.58
16.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
54.1%
16.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
32.4%
3.00
Venue Conceded Mean
2.32
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
16.2%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
16.2%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
5.3%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
21.1%
75.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
16.2%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
16.2%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
5.3%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
21.1%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
16.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
6
History Matches
37
0.41
Result entropy
0.98
3.04
Goal Difference Std
2.32
58.99
Stability score
1.75
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
6
Eligible Matches
37
3
Lead Matches
7
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
71.4%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.76
2
Trailing Matches
14
100.0%
Non-loss rate
35.7%
100.0%
Trailing Win Rate
14.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
6
Halftime Coverage Matches
37
0.83
First Half Goals For Mean
0.43
0.50
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.81
2.00
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.46
0.83
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.19
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.03
Rest days
83.25
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
2
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
2
Normal Rest History Matches
24
3.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.33
3
Long Rest History Matches
10
2.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.40
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
3.00
PPG
2.25
100.0%
Win rate
75.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
25.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
0.43
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.48
4
Current Competition Matches
4
3.00
Current Competition PPG
2.25
3.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.25
2
Competition Season Count
4
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
—
Portability PPG Std
0.51
—
Portability PPG Range
1.02
—
Portability Score
49.59
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
6
Clean History Matches
37
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO28.88
PPG1.12
GF0.94
GA-0.67
PPG0.75
PPG0.18
PPG0.00
PPG0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-31
Clean-sheet rate33.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.16
History Matches-17
Clean-sheet rate44.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.21
History Matches-31
Goals Mean0.94
Goals Std-0.12
Scored 1+ rate16.2%
Scored 2+ rate23.9%
Scored 3+ rate39.6%
Venue Goals Mean0.05
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.53
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.27
History Matches-31
Conceded Mean-0.67
Conceded Std0.56
Clean-sheet rate33.8%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.37
Conceded 3+ rate-0.16
Venue Conceded Mean0.68
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.87
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.30
History Matches-31
Result entropy-0.57
Goal Difference Std0.72
Stability score57.23
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.20
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.09
Eligible Matches-31
Lead Matches-4
Lead Win Rate28.6%
Lead Points Retention0.24
Trailing Matches-12
Non-loss rate64.3%
Trailing Win Rate85.7%
Halftime Coverage Matches-31
First Half Goals For Mean0.40
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.31
Second Half Goals For Mean0.54
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.36
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.75
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean2.00
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Rest days0.78
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest History Matches-22
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.67
Long Rest History Matches-7
Long Rest Points Per Match0.60
Current Team ELO28.88
Current Opponent ELO-28.88
Current ELO Difference57.77
Expected score0.08
History Matches-31
Residual Mean0.28
Overperformance5.90
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.16

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Swansea University

L
Ynyshir Albions4–2Swansea University31 Oct · away
Pick: Swansea University 54% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Treowen Stars

D
Newport City2–2Treowen Stars6 Nov · away
Pick: Newport City 48% · missed
W
Baglan Dragons0–1Treowen Stars30 Oct · away
Pick: Treowen Stars 45% · hit
L
Caerau (Ely)3–2Treowen Stars31 Aug · away
Pick: Caerau (Ely) 48% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Swansea University and Treowen Stars meet in FAW Championship on Friday 13 November 2026, kickoff 19:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 7 Nov, 08:56 UTC: Swansea University win 45.3%, draw 20.7%, Treowen Stars win 34.0%. The pick is Swansea University win. Over 2.5 goals: 71.0%. Both teams to score: 61.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.