ScoreProb
Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 Spain Group 18 - 10 2026

Tarancón vs La Solana

Tarancón Home · Elo 1,614
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
La Solana Away · Elo 1,437
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Tarancón win
Tarancón winPick
68.3%
Draw
20.0%
La Solana win
11.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes42.8%
No57.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.549.4%
Under 2.550.6%

How much we know

Tarancón history50 matches
La Solana history32 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 16:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (68.3%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Tarancón are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Tarancón are rated 177 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,614 against 1,437. On rating alone Tarancón would be expected to take 73% of the points on offer.

  • Tarancón score far more

    1.52 goals a game over 50 matches for Tarancón, against 0.63 over 32 for La Solana.

  • Tarancón concede fewer

    Tarancón concede 0.74 a game, La Solana 1.16.

  • Tarancón games more often go over 2.5 goals

    44% of Tarancón matches, against 22% for La Solana. The model puts this match at 49% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Tarancón
La Solana
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1613.8
ELO
1437.1
50
ELO · Matches
32
1613.8
Current Team ELO
1437.1
1437.1
Current Opponent ELO
1613.8
176.6
Current ELO Difference
-176.6
0.73
Expected score
0.27
50
History Matches
32
0.11
Residual Mean
-0.10
57.83
Overperformance
44.12
0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.21
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
0.80
1.80
Goals for per game
0.60
0.20
Goals against per game
1.20
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
2.20
PPG
0.50
1.70
Goals for per game
0.60
0.50
Goals against per game
1.60
70.0%
Win rate
10.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.60
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.66
0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
0.67
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.20
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
1.47
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.26
Overall performance9 signals
90
50
Matches
32
1.94
PPG
0.91
56.0%
Win rate
18.8%
26.0%
Draw rate
34.4%
18.0%
Loss rate
46.9%
70.0%
Over 1.5 rate
46.9%
44.0%
Over 2.5 rate
21.9%
14.0%
Over 3.5 rate
15.6%
1.62
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.35
Venue performance10 signals
100
25
Matches
16
2.00
PPG
0.75
56.0%
Win rate
12.5%
32.0%
Draw rate
37.5%
12.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
68.8%
52.0%
Over 2.5 rate
31.3%
16.0%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.35
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.53
25
History Matches
16
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.52
Goals for per game
0.63
74.0%
Scoring rate
46.9%
40.0%
BTTS rate
31.3%
1.64
Goals for per game
0.75
80.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
48.0%
BTTS rate
43.8%
50
History Matches
32
1.52
Goals Mean
0.63
1.33
Goals Std
0.78
74.0%
Scored 1+ rate
46.9%
48.0%
Scored 2+ rate
12.5%
22.0%
Scored 3+ rate
3.1%
1.64
Venue Goals Mean
0.75
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.74
Goals against per game
1.16
54.0%
Conceding rate
62.5%
0.72
Goals against per game
1.44
56.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
50
History Matches
32
0.74
Conceded Mean
1.16
0.80
Conceded Std
1.30
18.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
28.1%
2.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.5%
0.72
Venue Conceded Mean
1.44
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
46.0%
Clean-sheet rate
37.5%
26.0%
Failed-to-score rate
53.1%
44.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
46.0%
Clean-sheet rate
37.5%
26.0%
Failed-to-score rate
53.1%
44.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
46.0%
Clean-sheet rate
37.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
50
History Matches
32
0.90
Result entropy
0.94
1.62
Goal Difference Std
1.35
10.47
Stability score
5.69
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
50
Eligible Matches
32
21
Lead Matches
4
85.7%
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
0.89
Lead Points Retention
0.75
8
Trailing Matches
10
37.5%
Non-loss rate
20.0%
12.5%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
50
Halftime Coverage Matches
32
0.74
First Half Goals For Mean
0.25
0.32
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.44
0.78
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.38
0.42
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.72
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
168.9
Rest days
182.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
27
Normal Rest History Matches
17
2.04
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.00
22
Long Rest History Matches
14
1.77
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.86
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
1
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.24
Portability PPG Std
—
0.49
Portability PPG Range
—
67.31
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
50
Clean History Matches
32
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO176.6
PPG1.03
GF0.90
GA-0.42
PPG1.25
PPG1.20
PPG1.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches18
Clean-sheet rate8.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.27
History Matches9
Clean-sheet rate19.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.30
History Matches18
Goals Mean0.90
Goals Std0.55
Scored 1+ rate27.1%
Scored 2+ rate35.5%
Scored 3+ rate18.9%
Venue Goals Mean0.89
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.44
History Matches18
Conceded Mean-0.42
Conceded Std-0.51
Clean-sheet rate8.5%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.10
Conceded 3+ rate-0.11
Venue Conceded Mean-0.72
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.53
History Matches18
Result entropy-0.05
Goal Difference Std0.27
Stability score4.78
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.20
Eligible Matches18
Lead Matches17
Lead Win Rate10.7%
Lead Points Retention0.14
Trailing Matches-2
Non-loss rate17.5%
Trailing Win Rate12.5%
Halftime Coverage Matches18
First Half Goals For Mean0.49
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.12
Second Half Goals For Mean0.41
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.30
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Rest days-13.08
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches10
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.04
Long Rest History Matches8
Long Rest Points Per Match0.92
Current Team ELO176.6
Current Opponent ELO-176.6
Current ELO Difference353.3
Expected score0.47
History Matches18
Residual Mean0.21
Overperformance13.71
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.29

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Tarancón

D
Noblejas2–2Tarancón31 Oct · away
Pick: Tarancón 64% · missed
D
Tarancón1–1Villarrubia24 Oct · home
Pick: Tarancón 50% · missed
W
Quintanar del Rey1–2Tarancón18 Oct · away
Pick: Tarancón 36% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

La Solana

L
CD Villa1–0La Solana25 Oct · away
Pick: CD Villa 38% · hit
W
La Solana2–0Torrijos17 Oct · home
Pick: La Solana 55% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Tarancón and La Solana meet in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 16:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Tarancón win 68.3%, draw 20.0%, La Solana win 11.6%. The pick is Tarancón win. Over 2.5 goals: 49.4%. Both teams to score: 42.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.