ScoreProb
Copa del Rey Spain Round 128 2026

Tarancón vs Levante

Tarancón Home · Elo 1,614
Thu 5 Nov
UTC
Not started
Levante Away · Elo 1,549
Estadio Municipal de Tarancon Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Levante win
Tarancón win
34.1%
Draw
26.2%
Levante winPick
39.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes48.8%
No51.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.551.2%
Under 2.548.8%

How much we know

Tarancón history50 matches
Levante history70 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead
    30 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 13 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 19:23 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    5 Nov · 18:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (39.8%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Levante are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Tarancón are rated 64 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,614 against 1,549. On rating alone Tarancón would be expected to take 59% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.52 goals a game over 50 matches for Tarancón, against 1.37 over 70 for Levante.

  • Tarancón concede fewer

    Tarancón concede 0.74 a game, Levante 1.33.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    44% of Tarancón matches, against 46% for Levante. The model puts this match at 51% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Tarancón
Levante
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1613.8
ELO
1549.5
50
ELO · Matches
70
1613.8
Current Team ELO
1549.5
1549.5
Current Opponent ELO
1613.8
64.30
Current ELO Difference
-64.30
0.59
Expected score
0.41
50
History Matches
70
0.11
Residual Mean
0.03
57.83
Overperformance
52.59
0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.06
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.40
1.80
Goals for per game
1.00
0.20
Goals against per game
1.20
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
2.20
PPG
1.60
1.70
Goals for per game
1.20
0.50
Goals against per game
1.10
70.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.98
0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
0.67
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.94
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.47
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.51
Overall performance9 signals
90
50
Matches
70
1.94
PPG
1.49
56.0%
Win rate
42.9%
26.0%
Draw rate
20.0%
18.0%
Loss rate
37.1%
70.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.7%
44.0%
Over 2.5 rate
45.7%
14.0%
Over 3.5 rate
27.1%
1.62
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.69
Venue performance10 signals
100
25
Matches
36
2.00
PPG
1.28
56.0%
Win rate
36.1%
32.0%
Draw rate
19.4%
12.0%
Loss rate
44.4%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
77.8%
52.0%
Over 2.5 rate
47.2%
16.0%
Over 3.5 rate
27.8%
1.35
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.79
25
History Matches
36
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.52
Goals for per game
1.37
74.0%
Scoring rate
70.0%
40.0%
BTTS rate
48.6%
1.64
Goals for per game
1.28
80.0%
Scoring rate
63.9%
48.0%
BTTS rate
47.2%
50
History Matches
70
1.52
Goals Mean
1.37
1.33
Goals Std
1.24
74.0%
Scored 1+ rate
70.0%
48.0%
Scored 2+ rate
40.0%
22.0%
Scored 3+ rate
20.0%
1.64
Venue Goals Mean
1.28
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.74
Goals against per game
1.33
54.0%
Conceding rate
72.9%
0.72
Goals against per game
1.44
56.0%
Conceding rate
77.8%
50
History Matches
70
0.74
Conceded Mean
1.33
0.80
Conceded Std
1.13
18.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
41.4%
2.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.9%
0.72
Venue Conceded Mean
1.44
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
46.0%
Clean-sheet rate
27.1%
26.0%
Failed-to-score rate
30.0%
44.0%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
36.1%
46.0%
Clean-sheet rate
27.1%
26.0%
Failed-to-score rate
30.0%
44.0%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
36.1%
46.0%
Clean-sheet rate
27.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
50
History Matches
70
0.90
Result entropy
0.96
1.62
Goal Difference Std
1.69
10.47
Stability score
4.16
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
50
Eligible Matches
70
21
Lead Matches
20
85.7%
Lead Win Rate
65.0%
0.89
Lead Points Retention
0.75
8
Trailing Matches
21
37.5%
Non-loss rate
23.8%
12.5%
Trailing Win Rate
14.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
50
Halftime Coverage Matches
70
0.74
First Half Goals For Mean
0.51
0.32
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.61
0.78
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.86
0.42
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.71
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
166.0
Rest days
73.02
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
3
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.33
27
Normal Rest History Matches
38
2.04
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.63
22
Long Rest History Matches
28
1.77
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.36
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
6
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.24
Portability PPG Std
0.36
0.49
Portability PPG Range
0.95
67.31
Portability Score
57.86
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
50
Clean History Matches
70
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO64.30
PPG0.45
GF0.15
GA-0.59
PPG0.72
PPG0.60
PPG0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-20
Clean-sheet rate18.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches-11
Clean-sheet rate21.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.16
History Matches-20
Goals Mean0.15
Goals Std0.09
Scored 1+ rate4.0%
Scored 2+ rate8.0%
Scored 3+ rate2.0%
Venue Goals Mean0.36
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std0.12
History Matches-20
Conceded Mean-0.59
Conceded Std-0.34
Clean-sheet rate18.9%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.23
Conceded 3+ rate-0.11
Venue Conceded Mean-0.72
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.27
History Matches-20
Result entropy-0.06
Goal Difference Std-0.07
Stability score6.31
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.04
Eligible Matches-20
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate20.7%
Lead Points Retention0.14
Trailing Matches-13
Non-loss rate13.7%
Trailing Win Rate-0.02
Halftime Coverage Matches-20
First Half Goals For Mean0.23
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.29
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.08
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.29
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-4
Eligible Competition Season Count-3
Portability PPG Std-0.12
Portability PPG Range-0.46
Portability Score9.44
Rest days92.98
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest History Matches-11
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.41
Long Rest History Matches-6
Long Rest Points Per Match0.42
Current Team ELO64.30
Current Opponent ELO-64.30
Current ELO Difference128.6
Expected score0.18
History Matches-20
Residual Mean0.08
Overperformance5.24
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.02

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Tarancón

D
Noblejas2–2Tarancón31 Oct · away
Pick: Tarancón 64% · missed
D
Tarancón1–1Villarrubia24 Oct · home
Pick: Tarancón 50% · missed
W
Quintanar del Rey1–2Tarancón18 Oct · away
Pick: Tarancón 36% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Levante

L
Levante0–2Atletico Madrid31 Oct · home
Pick: Atletico Madrid 58% · hit
L
Real Sociedad2–1Levante25 Oct · away
Pick: Real Sociedad 48% · hit
W
Levante3–1Athletic Club21 Oct · home
Pick: Levante 44% · hit
D
Deportivo La Coruna1–1Levante16 Oct · away
Pick: Deportivo La Coruna 60% · missed
D
Levante3–3Sevilla12 Oct · home
Pick: Sevilla 38% · missed

About this match

Tarancón and Levante meet in Copa del Rey on Thursday 5 November 2026, kickoff 18:00 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Municipal de Tarancon. ScoreProb published its prediction on 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC: Tarancón win 34.1%, draw 26.2%, Levante win 39.8%. The pick is Levante win. Over 2.5 goals: 51.2%. Both teams to score: 48.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.