ScoreProb
Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 Spain Group 3 - 10 2026

Torina vs Bezana

Torina Home · Elo 1,530
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Bezana Away · Elo 1,487
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Bezana win
Torina win
33.7%
Draw
29.2%
Bezana winPick
37.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes51.3%
No48.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.548.2%
Under 2.551.8%

How much we know

Torina history48 matches
Bezana history49 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 17:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (37.1%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Bezana are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Torina are rated 43 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,530 against 1,487. On rating alone Torina would be expected to take 56% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.27 goals a game over 48 matches for Torina, against 1.29 over 49 for Bezana.

  • Defences are close

    Torina concede 1.29 a game, Bezana 1.27.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    46% of Torina matches, against 53% for Bezana. The model puts this match at 48% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 14 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Torina
Bezana
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1529.7
ELO
1486.9
48
ELO · Matches
49
1529.7
Current Team ELO
1486.9
1486.9
Current Opponent ELO
1529.7
42.79
Current ELO Difference
-42.79
0.56
Expected score
0.44
48
History Matches
49
0.03
Residual Mean
-0.01
51.89
Overperformance
49.16
-0.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.09
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
1.00
1.40
Goals for per game
1.20
1.00
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
1.50
1.00
Goals for per game
2.00
1.00
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.00
0.89
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.18
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.00
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.73
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.90
Overall performance9 signals
90
48
Matches
49
1.54
PPG
1.31
43.8%
Win rate
34.7%
22.9%
Draw rate
26.5%
33.3%
Loss rate
38.8%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.5%
45.8%
Over 2.5 rate
53.1%
18.8%
Over 3.5 rate
24.5%
1.80
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.72
Venue performance10 signals
100
23
Matches
24
1.57
PPG
1.33
43.5%
Win rate
33.3%
26.1%
Draw rate
33.3%
30.4%
Loss rate
33.3%
73.9%
Over 1.5 rate
70.8%
30.4%
Over 2.5 rate
54.2%
8.7%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.63
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.54
23
History Matches
24
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.27
Goals for per game
1.29
68.8%
Scoring rate
69.4%
45.8%
BTTS rate
46.9%
1.13
Goals for per game
1.29
65.2%
Scoring rate
75.0%
39.1%
BTTS rate
50.0%
48
History Matches
49
1.27
Goals Mean
1.29
1.08
Goals Std
1.12
68.8%
Scored 1+ rate
69.4%
43.8%
Scored 2+ rate
40.8%
12.5%
Scored 3+ rate
14.3%
1.13
Venue Goals Mean
1.29
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.29
Goals against per game
1.27
68.8%
Conceding rate
67.3%
0.96
Goals against per game
1.25
65.2%
Conceding rate
62.5%
48
History Matches
49
1.29
Conceded Mean
1.27
1.37
Conceded Std
1.14
33.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
38.8%
14.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
18.4%
0.96
Venue Conceded Mean
1.25
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
31.3%
Clean-sheet rate
32.7%
31.3%
Failed-to-score rate
30.6%
34.8%
Clean-sheet rate
37.5%
34.8%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
31.3%
Clean-sheet rate
32.7%
31.3%
Failed-to-score rate
30.6%
34.8%
Clean-sheet rate
37.5%
34.8%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
31.3%
Clean-sheet rate
32.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
48
History Matches
49
0.97
Result entropy
0.99
1.80
Goal Difference Std
1.72
3.01
Stability score
1.09
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
44
Eligible Matches
48
15
Lead Matches
13
86.7%
Lead Win Rate
76.9%
0.87
Lead Points Retention
0.79
9
Trailing Matches
16
22.2%
Non-loss rate
25.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
6.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
44
Halftime Coverage Matches
48
0.66
First Half Goals For Mean
0.56
0.50
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.58
0.66
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.71
0.89
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.71
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
183.0
Rest days
86.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
27
Normal Rest History Matches
23
1.74
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.39
20
Long Rest History Matches
25
1.35
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.28
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.04
Portability PPG Std
0.00
0.08
Portability PPG Range
0.00
92.18
Portability Score
100.0
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
48
Clean History Matches
49
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO42.79
PPG0.24
GF-0.01
GA0.03
PPG0.23
PPG0.60
PPG0.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate0.6%
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Failed-to-score rate9.8%
History Matches-1
Goals Mean-0.01
Goals Std-0.05
Scored 1+ rate-0.01
Scored 2+ rate2.9%
Scored 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Goals Mean-0.16
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.29
History Matches-1
Conceded Mean0.03
Conceded Std0.23
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Conceded 2+ rate-0.05
Conceded 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Conceded Mean-0.29
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.10
History Matches-1
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std0.08
Stability score1.92
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.17
Eligible Matches-4
Lead Matches2
Lead Win Rate9.7%
Lead Points Retention0.07
Trailing Matches-7
Non-loss rate-0.03
Trailing Win Rate-0.06
Halftime Coverage Matches-4
First Half Goals For Mean0.10
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.08
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.05
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.18
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.04
Portability PPG Range0.08
Portability Score-7.82
Rest days97.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches4
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.35
Long Rest History Matches-5
Long Rest Points Per Match0.07
Current Team ELO42.79
Current Opponent ELO-42.79
Current ELO Difference85.57
Expected score0.12
History Matches-1
Residual Mean0.04
Overperformance2.73
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.09

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Torina

D
Velarde0–0Torina25 Oct · away
Pick: Draw 34% · hit
D
Torina1–1Sámano18 Oct · home
Pick: Torina 57% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Bezana

W
Bezana4–1Velarde31 Oct · home
Pick: Bezana 69% · hit
D
Sámano1–1Bezana25 Oct · away
Pick: Sámano 41% · missed
L
Bezana0–2Cayón17 Oct · home
Pick: Bezana 37% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Torina and Bezana meet in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 17:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Torina win 33.7%, draw 29.2%, Bezana win 37.1%. The pick is Bezana win. Over 2.5 goals: 48.2%. Both teams to score: 51.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.