ScoreProb
Segunda Liga Portugal Round 10 2026

Torreense vs União de Leiria

Torreense Home · Elo 1,569
Mon 9 Nov
UTC
Not started
União de Leiria Away · Elo 1,513
Estadio Manuel Marques, Torres Vedras Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 3 Nov, 08:36 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Torreense win
Torreense winPick
46.6%
Draw
24.2%
União de Leiria win
29.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes56.9%
No43.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.557.3%
Under 2.542.7%

How much we know

Torreense history70 matches
União de Leiria history63 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 11 h ahead
    3 Nov · 08:36 UTC
  2. Re-published 4 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 08:08 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    9 Nov · 20:15 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (46.6%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Torreense are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Torreense are rated 57 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,569 against 1,513. On rating alone Torreense would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.50 goals a game over 70 matches for Torreense, against 1.59 over 63 for União de Leiria.

  • Torreense concede fewer

    Torreense concede 1.16 a game, União de Leiria 1.35.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    51% of Torreense matches, against 59% for União de Leiria. The model puts this match at 57% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Torreense
União de Leiria
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1569.5
ELO
1513.0
70
ELO · Matches
63
1569.5
Current Team ELO
1513.0
1513.0
Current Opponent ELO
1569.5
56.51
Current ELO Difference
-56.51
0.58
Expected score
0.42
70
History Matches
63
0.04
Residual Mean
0.01
53.19
Overperformance
50.58
-0.17
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.26
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
1.20
1.00
Goals for per game
1.80
1.40
Goals against per game
1.60
0.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
0.90
PPG
0.70
1.20
Goals for per game
1.20
1.10
Goals against per game
1.70
10.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
1.47
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.25
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
0.83
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.90
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
1.76
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.43
Overall performance9 signals
90
70
Matches
63
1.61
PPG
1.49
44.3%
Win rate
41.3%
28.6%
Draw rate
25.4%
27.1%
Loss rate
33.3%
71.4%
Over 1.5 rate
74.6%
51.4%
Over 2.5 rate
58.7%
28.6%
Over 3.5 rate
44.4%
1.51
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.57
Venue performance10 signals
100
32
Matches
32
1.75
PPG
1.53
50.0%
Win rate
43.8%
25.0%
Draw rate
21.9%
25.0%
Loss rate
34.4%
78.1%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
56.3%
Over 2.5 rate
59.4%
37.5%
Over 3.5 rate
43.8%
1.70
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.49
32
History Matches
32
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.50
Goals for per game
1.59
72.9%
Scoring rate
79.4%
51.4%
BTTS rate
60.3%
1.72
Goals for per game
1.69
81.3%
Scoring rate
81.3%
56.3%
BTTS rate
65.6%
1.67
Goals for per game
1.67
100.0%
Scoring rate
66.7%
100.0%
BTTS rate
66.7%
70
History Matches
63
1.50
Goals Mean
1.59
1.23
Goals Std
1.27
72.9%
Scored 1+ rate
79.4%
48.6%
Scored 2+ rate
47.6%
22.9%
Scored 3+ rate
19.0%
1.72
Venue Goals Mean
1.69
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.16
Goals against per game
1.35
70.0%
Conceding rate
74.6%
1.22
Goals against per game
1.34
68.8%
Conceding rate
81.3%
2.00
Goals against per game
1.67
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
70
History Matches
63
1.16
Conceded Mean
1.35
1.04
Conceded Std
0.99
32.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
47.6%
8.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.7%
1.22
Venue Conceded Mean
1.34
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
30.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.4%
27.1%
Failed-to-score rate
20.6%
31.3%
Clean-sheet rate
18.8%
18.8%
Failed-to-score rate
18.8%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
30.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.4%
27.1%
Failed-to-score rate
20.6%
31.3%
Clean-sheet rate
18.8%
18.8%
Failed-to-score rate
18.8%
30.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
70
History Matches
63
0.98
Result entropy
0.98
1.51
Goal Difference Std
1.57
2.37
Stability score
1.74
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
67
Eligible Matches
61
19
Lead Matches
22
78.9%
Lead Win Rate
59.1%
0.86
Lead Points Retention
0.68
23
Trailing Matches
11
52.2%
Non-loss rate
36.4%
26.1%
Trailing Win Rate
18.2%
Goal timing5 signals
50
67
Halftime Coverage Matches
61
0.52
First Half Goals For Mean
0.77
0.57
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.48
0.90
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.84
0.57
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.90
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
79.14
Rest days
79.43
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
49
Normal Rest History Matches
36
1.67
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.42
19
Long Rest History Matches
26
1.53
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.54
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
0.67
PPG
1.00
0.0%
Win rate
33.3%
66.7%
Draw rate
0.0%
33.3%
Loss rate
66.7%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
66.7%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
0.47
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.41
3
Current Competition Matches
3
0.67
Current Competition PPG
1.00
-0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
8
Competition Season Count
6
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.48
Portability PPG Std
0.30
1.58
Portability PPG Range
0.69
51.19
Portability Score
62.87
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
70
Clean History Matches
63
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO56.51
PPG0.12
GF-0.09
GA-0.19
PPG-0.33
PPG0.22
PPG-0.60
PPG0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches7
Clean-sheet rate4.6%
Failed-to-score rate6.5%
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate12.5%
Failed-to-score rate0.0%
History Matches7
Goals Mean-0.09
Goals Std-0.04
Scored 1+ rate-0.07
Scored 2+ rate1.0%
Scored 3+ rate3.8%
Venue Goals Mean0.03
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std0.22
History Matches7
Conceded Mean-0.19
Conceded Std0.04
Clean-sheet rate4.6%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.15
Conceded 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Conceded Mean-0.13
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.07
History Matches7
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.06
Stability score0.63
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.09
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.33
Eligible Matches6
Lead Matches-3
Lead Win Rate19.9%
Lead Points Retention0.18
Trailing Matches12
Non-loss rate15.8%
Trailing Win Rate7.9%
Halftime Coverage Matches6
First Half Goals For Mean-0.25
First Half Goals Against Mean0.09
Second Half Goals For Mean0.06
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.33
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.33
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.18
Portability PPG Range0.90
Portability Score-11.68
Rest days-0.29
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches13
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.26
Long Rest History Matches-7
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.01
Current Team ELO56.51
Current Opponent ELO-56.51
Current ELO Difference113.0
Expected score0.16
History Matches7
Residual Mean0.03
Overperformance2.60
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.09

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Torreense

D
Portimonense0–0Torreense31 Oct · away
Pick: Portimonense 50% · missed
W
Torreense1–0Amarante26 Oct · home
Pick: Torreense 54% · hit
L
Ferencvarosi TC4–1Torreense22 Oct · away
Pick: Ferencvarosi TC 63% · hit
L
Torreense1–2Sunderland15 Oct · home
Pick: Sunderland 38% · hit
L
Torreense0–3Vizela29 Aug · home
Pick: Torreense 49% · missed

União de Leiria

W
União de Leiria2–1AVS31 Oct · home
Pick: União de Leiria 53% · hit
D
FC Porto B1–1União de Leiria25 Oct · away
Pick: União de Leiria 41% · missed
W
União de Leiria2–1Bragança17 Oct · home
Pick: União de Leiria 51% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Torreense and União de Leiria meet in Segunda Liga on Monday 9 November 2026, kickoff 20:15 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Manuel Marques, Torres Vedras. ScoreProb published its prediction on 3 Nov, 08:36 UTC: Torreense win 46.6%, draw 24.2%, União de Leiria win 29.2%. The pick is Torreense win. Over 2.5 goals: 57.3%. Both teams to score: 56.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.