ScoreProb
FA WSL England Round 9 2026

Tottenham Hotspur W vs Brighton W

Tottenham Hotspur W Home · Elo 1,524
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Brighton W Away · Elo 1,515
Brisbane Road, London Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Brighton W win
Tottenham Hotspur W win
27.9%
Draw
24.4%
Brighton W winPick
47.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes54.9%
No45.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.555.5%
Under 2.544.5%

How much we know

Tottenham Hotspur W history40 matches
Brighton W history43 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 14:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (47.8%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Brighton W are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,524 against 1,515. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.40 goals a game over 40 matches for Tottenham Hotspur W, against 1.42 over 43 for Brighton W.

  • Defences are close

    Tottenham Hotspur W concede 1.63 a game, Brighton W 1.49.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    58% of Tottenham Hotspur W matches, against 60% for Brighton W. The model puts this match at 56% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 31 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Tottenham Hotspur W
Brighton W
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1523.9
ELO
1514.6
40
ELO · Matches
43
1523.9
Current Team ELO
1514.6
1514.6
Current Opponent ELO
1523.9
9.38
Current ELO Difference
-9.38
0.51
Expected score
0.49
40
History Matches
43
0.03
Residual Mean
0.01
51.85
Overperformance
50.80
-0.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.16
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.00
1.40
Goals for per game
1.20
1.80
Goals against per game
2.00
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
1.50
1.90
Goals for per game
1.30
2.30
Goals against per game
1.40
30.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
1.87
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.00
2.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
1.55
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.20
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
2.01
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.58
Overall performance9 signals
90
40
Matches
43
1.33
PPG
1.28
37.5%
Win rate
37.2%
20.0%
Draw rate
16.3%
42.5%
Loss rate
46.5%
72.5%
Over 1.5 rate
76.7%
57.5%
Over 2.5 rate
60.5%
27.5%
Over 3.5 rate
32.6%
1.81
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.59
Venue performance10 signals
100
19
Matches
23
1.42
PPG
1.26
42.1%
Win rate
39.1%
15.8%
Draw rate
8.7%
42.1%
Loss rate
52.2%
52.6%
Over 1.5 rate
73.9%
47.4%
Over 2.5 rate
56.5%
10.5%
Over 3.5 rate
30.4%
1.62
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.32
19
History Matches
23
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.40
Goals for per game
1.42
72.5%
Scoring rate
81.4%
55.0%
BTTS rate
60.5%
1.05
Goals for per game
1.30
63.2%
Scoring rate
87.0%
36.8%
BTTS rate
60.9%
40
History Matches
43
1.40
Goals Mean
1.42
1.32
Goals Std
1.10
72.5%
Scored 1+ rate
81.4%
45.0%
Scored 2+ rate
37.2%
12.5%
Scored 3+ rate
16.3%
1.05
Venue Goals Mean
1.30
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.63
Goals against per game
1.49
75.0%
Conceding rate
74.4%
1.05
Goals against per game
1.52
57.9%
Conceding rate
73.9%
40
History Matches
43
1.63
Conceded Mean
1.49
1.49
Conceded Std
1.13
45.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
51.2%
20.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
20.9%
1.05
Venue Conceded Mean
1.52
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.6%
27.5%
Failed-to-score rate
18.6%
42.1%
Clean-sheet rate
26.1%
36.8%
Failed-to-score rate
13.0%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.6%
27.5%
Failed-to-score rate
18.6%
42.1%
Clean-sheet rate
26.1%
36.8%
Failed-to-score rate
13.0%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
40
History Matches
43
0.96
Result entropy
0.93
1.81
Goal Difference Std
1.59
4.12
Stability score
7.21
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
40
Eligible Matches
43
13
Lead Matches
17
69.2%
Lead Win Rate
58.8%
0.77
Lead Points Retention
0.67
13
Trailing Matches
15
7.7%
Non-loss rate
13.3%
7.7%
Trailing Win Rate
6.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
40
Halftime Coverage Matches
43
0.65
First Half Goals For Mean
0.72
0.73
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.74
0.75
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.70
0.90
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.74
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
176.1
Rest days
161.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
15
Normal Rest History Matches
23
1.40
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.13
24
Long Rest History Matches
19
1.21
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.53
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
4
Competition Season Count
5
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.47
Portability PPG Std
0.54
1.20
Portability PPG Range
1.40
51.53
Portability Score
48.15
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
40
Clean History Matches
43
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO9.38
PPG0.05
GF-0.02
GA0.14
PPG0.16
PPG0.40
PPG-0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate8.9%
History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate16.0%
Failed-to-score rate23.8%
History Matches-3
Goals Mean-0.02
Goals Std0.21
Scored 1+ rate-0.09
Scored 2+ rate7.8%
Scored 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Goals Mean-0.25
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std0.86
History Matches-3
Conceded Mean0.14
Conceded Std0.37
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Conceded 2+ rate-0.06
Conceded 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Conceded Mean-0.47
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.35
History Matches-3
Result entropy0.03
Goal Difference Std0.22
Stability score-3.09
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.43
Eligible Matches-3
Lead Matches-4
Lead Win Rate10.4%
Lead Points Retention0.10
Trailing Matches-2
Non-loss rate-0.06
Trailing Win Rate1.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-3
First Half Goals For Mean-0.07
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.02
Second Half Goals For Mean0.05
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.16
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.07
Portability PPG Range-0.20
Portability Score3.38
Rest days15.08
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-8
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.27
Long Rest History Matches5
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.32
Current Team ELO9.38
Current Opponent ELO-9.38
Current ELO Difference18.77
Expected score0.03
History Matches-3
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance1.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.17

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Tottenham Hotspur W

W
Birmingham City W1–4Tottenham Hotspur W1 Nov · away
Pick: Birmingham City W 50% · missed
W
Bristol City W1–6Tottenham Hotspur W28 Oct · away
Pick: Tottenham Hotspur W 41% · hit
L
Tottenham Hotspur W1–2Arsenal W24 Oct · home
Pick: Arsenal W 53% · hit
L
Chelsea W6–2Tottenham Hotspur W18 Oct · away
Pick: Chelsea W 69% · hit
L
Tottenham Hotspur W1–6London City Lionesses W4 Oct · home
Pick: Tottenham Hotspur W 44% · missed

Brighton W

W
Brighton W2–1Crystal Palace W1 Nov · home
Pick: Brighton W 46% · hit
W
Wolverhampton W0–6Brighton W28 Oct · away
Pick: Brighton W 49% · hit
W
Brighton W3–0West Ham W24 Oct · home
Pick: Brighton W 50% · hit
L
Manchester City W3–2Brighton W18 Oct · away
Pick: Manchester City W 65% · hit
W
Brighton W5–1Charlton Athletic W4 Oct · home
Pick: Brighton W 45% · hit

About this match

Tottenham Hotspur W and Brighton W meet in FA WSL on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. The match is played at Brisbane Road, London. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Tottenham Hotspur W win 27.9%, draw 24.4%, Brighton W win 47.8%. The pick is Brighton W win. Over 2.5 goals: 55.5%. Both teams to score: 54.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.