ScoreProb
Gamma Ethniki - Group 4 Greece Group 4 - 7 2026

Trikala vs Pierikos

Trikala Home · Elo 1,517
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Pierikos Away · Elo 1,493
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Draw
Trikala win
35.4%
DrawPick
37.6%
Pierikos win
27.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · the live score only: events are not provided for this competition by our data source
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes47.4%
No52.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.544.4%
Under 2.555.6%

How much we know

Trikala history41 matches
Pierikos history39 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (37.6%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why a draw is the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,517 against 1,493. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Pierikos score more

    1.15 goals a game over 41 matches for Trikala, against 1.41 over 39 for Pierikos.

  • Defences are close

    Trikala concede 0.95 a game, Pierikos 0.97.

  • Pierikos games more often go over 2.5 goals

    32% of Trikala matches, against 46% for Pierikos. The model puts this match at 44% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 12 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Trikala
Pierikos
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1516.6
ELO
1493.4
41
ELO · Matches
39
1516.6
Current Team ELO
1493.4
1493.4
Current Opponent ELO
1516.6
23.15
Current ELO Difference
-23.15
0.53
Expected score
0.47
41
History Matches
39
0.02
Residual Mean
-0.01
51.46
Overperformance
49.48
-0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.33
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
0.20
0.20
Goals for per game
0.20
1.20
Goals against per game
2.00
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
0.50
0.80
Goals for per game
0.50
0.80
Goals against per game
1.70
20.0%
Win rate
10.0%
0.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.50
0.98
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.92
0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
1.17
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.27
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
1.73
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.40
Overall performance9 signals
90
41
Matches
39
1.39
PPG
1.59
31.7%
Win rate
48.7%
43.9%
Draw rate
12.8%
24.4%
Loss rate
38.5%
68.3%
Over 1.5 rate
59.0%
31.7%
Over 2.5 rate
46.2%
14.6%
Over 3.5 rate
28.2%
1.52
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.15
Venue performance10 signals
100
21
Matches
19
1.67
PPG
1.21
42.9%
Win rate
36.8%
38.1%
Draw rate
10.5%
19.0%
Loss rate
52.6%
57.1%
Over 1.5 rate
52.6%
28.6%
Over 2.5 rate
42.1%
9.5%
Over 3.5 rate
36.8%
1.62
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.39
21
History Matches
19
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.15
Goals for per game
1.41
68.3%
Scoring rate
61.5%
43.9%
BTTS rate
25.6%
1.14
Goals for per game
1.26
61.9%
Scoring rate
52.6%
23.8%
BTTS rate
21.1%
41
History Matches
39
1.15
Goals Mean
1.41
1.05
Goals Std
1.55
68.3%
Scored 1+ rate
61.5%
31.7%
Scored 2+ rate
35.9%
12.2%
Scored 3+ rate
25.6%
1.14
Venue Goals Mean
1.26
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.95
Goals against per game
0.97
61.0%
Conceding rate
56.4%
0.62
Goals against per game
1.11
42.9%
Conceding rate
63.2%
41
History Matches
39
0.95
Conceded Mean
0.97
1.06
Conceded Std
1.07
19.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
28.2%
9.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
10.3%
0.62
Venue Conceded Mean
1.11
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
39.0%
Clean-sheet rate
43.6%
31.7%
Failed-to-score rate
38.5%
57.1%
Clean-sheet rate
36.8%
38.1%
Failed-to-score rate
47.4%
39.0%
Clean-sheet rate
43.6%
31.7%
Failed-to-score rate
38.5%
57.1%
Clean-sheet rate
36.8%
38.1%
Failed-to-score rate
47.4%
39.0%
Clean-sheet rate
43.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
41
History Matches
39
0.97
Result entropy
0.89
1.52
Goal Difference Std
2.15
2.63
Stability score
10.69
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
38
Eligible Matches
39
8
Lead Matches
14
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
85.7%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.88
11
Trailing Matches
9
27.3%
Non-loss rate
11.1%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
11.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
38
Halftime Coverage Matches
39
0.39
First Half Goals For Mean
0.72
0.53
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.36
0.71
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.69
0.45
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.62
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
87.92
Rest days
213.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
2
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.50
27
Normal Rest History Matches
25
1.74
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.44
12
Long Rest History Matches
11
0.75
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.26
Portability PPG Std
0.65
0.52
Portability PPG Range
1.31
65.98
Portability Score
43.33
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
41
Clean History Matches
39
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO23.15
PPG-0.20
GF-0.26
GA-0.02
PPG0.46
PPG0.40
PPG0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Failed-to-score rate-0.07
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate20.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.09
History Matches2
Goals Mean-0.26
Goals Std-0.50
Scored 1+ rate6.8%
Scored 2+ rate-0.04
Scored 3+ rate-0.13
Venue Goals Mean-0.12
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.06
History Matches2
Conceded Mean-0.02
Conceded Std-0.02
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Conceded 2+ rate-0.09
Conceded 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Conceded Mean-0.49
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.10
History Matches2
Result entropy0.08
Goal Difference Std-0.63
Stability score-8.06
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.14
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.33
Eligible Matches-1
Lead Matches-6
Lead Win Rate-0.11
Lead Points Retention-0.05
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate16.2%
Trailing Win Rate-0.11
Halftime Coverage Matches-1
First Half Goals For Mean-0.32
First Half Goals Against Mean0.17
Second Half Goals For Mean0.02
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.17
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.40
Portability PPG Range-0.79
Portability Score22.64
Rest days-125.1
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.50
Normal Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.30
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match-1.25
Current Team ELO23.15
Current Opponent ELO-23.15
Current ELO Difference46.30
Expected score0.07
History Matches2
Residual Mean0.03
Overperformance1.97
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.27

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Trikala

W
Karitsa0–2Trikala1 Nov · away
Pick: Trikala 39% · hit
W
Trikala4–0Digenis Neochori25 Oct · home
Pick: Trikala 63% · hit
W
Iraklis Larissa0–1Trikala4 Oct · away
Pick: Trikala 39% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Pierikos

W
Pierikos2–1Anthoupoli1 Nov · home
Pick: Pierikos 46% · hit
D
Pierikos1–1Karitsa25 Oct · home
Pick: Pierikos 65% · missed
D
Digenis Neochori1–1Pierikos17 Oct · away
Pick: Pierikos 34% · missed
L
Sarakinos1–0Pierikos4 Oct · away
Pick: Pierikos 43% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Trikala and Pierikos meet in Gamma Ethniki - Group 4 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Trikala win 35.4%, draw 37.6%, Pierikos win 27.0%. The pick is a draw. Over 2.5 goals: 44.4%. Both teams to score: 47.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.