ScoreProb
Bundesliga Austria Round 12 2026

TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach

TSV Hartberg Home · Elo 1,564
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
SCR Altach Away · Elo 1,531
Stadion Hartberg Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: TSV Hartberg win
TSV Hartberg winPick
40.5%
Draw
24.9%
SCR Altach win
34.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes55.1%
No44.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.550.3%
Under 2.549.7%

How much we know

TSV Hartberg history73 matches
SCR Altach history71 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 13:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (40.5%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why TSV Hartberg are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • TSV Hartberg are rated 33 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,564 against 1,531. On rating alone TSV Hartberg would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.37 goals a game over 73 matches for TSV Hartberg, against 1.35 over 71 for SCR Altach.

  • Defences are close

    TSV Hartberg concede 1.18 a game, SCR Altach 1.25.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    45% of TSV Hartberg matches, against 48% for SCR Altach. The model puts this match at 50% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
TSV Hartberg
SCR Altach
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1564.0
ELO
1530.7
73
ELO · Matches
71
1564.0
Current Team ELO
1530.7
1530.7
Current Opponent ELO
1564.0
33.29
Current ELO Difference
-33.29
0.55
Expected score
0.45
73
History Matches
71
0.04
Residual Mean
0.02
53.10
Overperformance
51.65
0.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.02
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.20
1.00
Goals for per game
1.00
1.40
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
1.50
1.30
Goals for per game
1.60
1.00
Goals against per game
1.10
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
1.19
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.28
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
0.77
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.94
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.63
1.85
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.69
Overall performance9 signals
90
73
Matches
71
1.47
PPG
1.32
38.4%
Win rate
32.4%
31.5%
Draw rate
35.2%
30.1%
Loss rate
32.4%
68.5%
Over 1.5 rate
70.4%
45.2%
Over 2.5 rate
47.9%
28.8%
Over 3.5 rate
33.8%
1.69
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.84
Venue performance10 signals
100
35
Matches
36
1.34
PPG
1.11
37.1%
Win rate
27.8%
22.9%
Draw rate
27.8%
40.0%
Loss rate
44.4%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
48.6%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
28.6%
Over 3.5 rate
38.9%
2.01
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.19
35
History Matches
36
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.37
Goals for per game
1.35
68.5%
Scoring rate
69.0%
49.3%
BTTS rate
49.3%
1.43
Goals for per game
1.33
74.3%
Scoring rate
58.3%
51.4%
BTTS rate
38.9%
0.50
Goals for per game
1.00
25.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
25.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
73
History Matches
71
1.37
Goals Mean
1.35
1.30
Goals Std
1.37
68.5%
Scored 1+ rate
69.0%
45.2%
Scored 2+ rate
38.0%
15.1%
Scored 3+ rate
18.3%
1.43
Venue Goals Mean
1.33
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.18
Goals against per game
1.25
67.1%
Conceding rate
70.4%
1.40
Goals against per game
1.36
74.3%
Conceding rate
72.2%
1.50
Goals against per game
1.25
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
73
History Matches
71
1.18
Conceded Mean
1.25
1.19
Conceded Std
1.11
30.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
38.0%
12.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.7%
1.40
Venue Conceded Mean
1.36
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
32.9%
Clean-sheet rate
29.6%
31.5%
Failed-to-score rate
31.0%
25.7%
Clean-sheet rate
27.8%
25.7%
Failed-to-score rate
41.7%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
75.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
32.9%
Clean-sheet rate
29.6%
31.5%
Failed-to-score rate
31.0%
25.7%
Clean-sheet rate
27.8%
25.7%
Failed-to-score rate
41.7%
32.9%
Clean-sheet rate
29.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
73
History Matches
71
0.99
Result entropy
1.00
1.69
Goal Difference Std
1.84
0.52
Stability score
0.07
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
72
Eligible Matches
70
25
Lead Matches
21
80.0%
Lead Win Rate
76.2%
0.85
Lead Points Retention
0.83
14
Trailing Matches
14
35.7%
Non-loss rate
14.3%
7.1%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
72
Halftime Coverage Matches
70
0.67
First Half Goals For Mean
0.70
0.42
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.50
0.69
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.67
0.76
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.73
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.94
Rest days
77.94
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
6
Short Rest History Matches
1
1.67
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
44
Normal Rest History Matches
42
1.45
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.31
22
Long Rest History Matches
27
1.45
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.30
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
0.75
PPG
0.75
25.0%
Win rate
25.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
75.0%
Loss rate
75.0%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
25.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.22
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.30
4
Current Competition Matches
4
0.75
Current Competition PPG
0.75
-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.25
8
Competition Season Count
7
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.46
Portability PPG Std
0.38
1.52
Portability PPG Range
1.05
52.30
Portability Score
56.74
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
73
Clean History Matches
71
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO33.29
PPG0.14
GF0.02
GA-0.08
PPG0.00
PPG0.23
PPG0.00
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate3.3%
Failed-to-score rate0.5%
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Failed-to-score rate-0.16
History Matches2
Goals Mean0.02
Goals Std-0.08
Scored 1+ rate-0.01
Scored 2+ rate7.2%
Scored 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.09
History Matches2
Conceded Mean-0.08
Conceded Std0.08
Clean-sheet rate3.3%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.08
Conceded 3+ rate0.00
Venue Conceded Mean0.04
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.17
History Matches2
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std-0.15
Stability score0.45
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.23
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.16
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches4
Lead Win Rate3.8%
Lead Points Retention0.03
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate21.4%
Trailing Win Rate7.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean-0.03
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.08
Second Half Goals For Mean0.02
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.04
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.75
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.07
Portability PPG Range0.47
Portability Score-4.44
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches5
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.33
Normal Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.15
Long Rest History Matches-5
Long Rest Points Per Match0.16
Current Team ELO33.29
Current Opponent ELO-33.29
Current ELO Difference66.58
Expected score0.10
History Matches2
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance1.45
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.07

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

TSV Hartberg

W
Grazer AK0–4TSV Hartberg30 Oct · away
Pick: TSV Hartberg 53% · hit
W
TSV Hartberg1–0Wolfsberger AC24 Oct · home
Pick: Wolfsberger AC 49% · missed
L
Rapid Vienna3–1TSV Hartberg16 Oct · away
Pick: Rapid Vienna 67% · hit
W
TSV Hartberg3–2Ried30 Aug · home
Pick: TSV Hartberg 42% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

SCR Altach

D
SCR Altach1–1Ried31 Oct · home
Pick: SCR Altach 47% · missed
W
Grazer AK0–4SCR Altach27 Oct · away
Pick: Grazer AK 41% · missed
W
SCR Altach2–1Austria Vienna23 Oct · home
Pick: SCR Altach 45% · hit
L
Red Bull Salzburg3–0SCR Altach18 Oct · away
Pick: Red Bull Salzburg 65% · hit
L
Lask Linz3–0SCR Altach29 Aug · away
Pick: Lask Linz 68% · hit

About this match

TSV Hartberg and SCR Altach meet in Bundesliga on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. The match is played at Stadion Hartberg. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: TSV Hartberg win 40.5%, draw 24.9%, SCR Altach win 34.6%. The pick is TSV Hartberg win. Over 2.5 goals: 50.3%. Both teams to score: 55.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.