ScoreProb
Oberliga - Hessen Germany Hessen - 17 2026

TuBa Pohlheim vs 1960 Hanau

TuBa Pohlheim Home · Elo 1,551
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
1960 Hanau Away · Elo 1,480
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: TuBa Pohlheim win
TuBa Pohlheim winPick
43.6%
Draw
21.7%
1960 Hanau win
34.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes70.3%
No29.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.576.7%
Under 2.523.3%

How much we know

TuBa Pohlheim history38 matches
1960 Hanau history57 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 13:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (43.6%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why TuBa Pohlheim are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • TuBa Pohlheim are rated 70 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,551 against 1,480. On rating alone TuBa Pohlheim would be expected to take 60% of the points on offer.

  • TuBa Pohlheim score more

    2.13 goals a game over 38 matches for TuBa Pohlheim, against 1.54 over 57 for 1960 Hanau.

  • TuBa Pohlheim concede fewer

    TuBa Pohlheim concede 1.79 a game, 1960 Hanau 2.00.

  • TuBa Pohlheim games more often go over 2.5 goals

    79% of TuBa Pohlheim matches, against 65% for 1960 Hanau. The model puts this match at 77% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
TuBa Pohlheim
1960 Hanau
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1550.5
ELO
1480.3
38
ELO · Matches
57
1550.5
Current Team ELO
1480.3
1480.3
Current Opponent ELO
1550.5
70.23
Current ELO Difference
-70.23
0.60
Expected score
0.40
38
History Matches
57
0.07
Residual Mean
-0.01
54.29
Overperformance
48.92
0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.03
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.00
1.80
Goals for per game
2.00
1.60
Goals against per game
2.00
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
1.30
2.00
Goals for per game
1.80
2.50
Goals against per game
1.90
50.0%
Win rate
30.0%
2.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
1.48
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.25
2.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.90
1.43
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.30
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
2.16
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.64
Overall performance9 signals
90
38
Matches
57
1.66
PPG
1.25
47.4%
Win rate
35.1%
23.7%
Draw rate
19.3%
28.9%
Loss rate
45.6%
92.1%
Over 1.5 rate
89.5%
78.9%
Over 2.5 rate
64.9%
52.6%
Over 3.5 rate
49.1%
2.38
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.18
Venue performance10 signals
100
19
Matches
28
1.89
PPG
1.07
57.9%
Win rate
28.6%
15.8%
Draw rate
21.4%
26.3%
Loss rate
50.0%
94.7%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
94.7%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
68.4%
Over 3.5 rate
57.1%
1.97
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.34
19
History Matches
28
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.13
Goals for per game
1.54
81.6%
Scoring rate
75.4%
71.1%
BTTS rate
59.6%
2.53
Goals for per game
1.46
84.2%
Scoring rate
75.0%
73.7%
BTTS rate
64.3%
1.80
Goals for per game
2.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
80.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
60.0%
38
History Matches
57
2.13
Goals Mean
1.54
1.67
Goals Std
1.26
81.6%
Scored 1+ rate
75.4%
57.9%
Scored 2+ rate
47.4%
36.8%
Scored 3+ rate
22.8%
2.53
Venue Goals Mean
1.46
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.79
Goals against per game
2.00
81.6%
Conceding rate
84.2%
1.79
Goals against per game
2.43
84.2%
Conceding rate
89.3%
1.60
Goals against per game
2.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
80.0%
38
History Matches
57
1.79
Conceded Mean
2.00
1.45
Conceded Std
1.50
50.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
56.1%
26.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
29.8%
1.79
Venue Conceded Mean
2.43
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
18.4%
Clean-sheet rate
15.8%
18.4%
Failed-to-score rate
24.6%
15.8%
Clean-sheet rate
10.7%
15.8%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
18.4%
Clean-sheet rate
15.8%
18.4%
Failed-to-score rate
24.6%
15.8%
Clean-sheet rate
10.7%
15.8%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
18.4%
Clean-sheet rate
15.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
38
History Matches
57
0.96
Result entropy
0.95
2.38
Goal Difference Std
2.18
4.07
Stability score
5.06
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
37
Eligible Matches
57
17
Lead Matches
16
82.4%
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
0.84
Lead Points Retention
0.79
9
Trailing Matches
17
33.3%
Non-loss rate
11.8%
11.1%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
37
Halftime Coverage Matches
57
1.11
First Half Goals For Mean
0.75
0.76
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.84
1.05
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.79
0.97
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.16
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
78.02
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
1
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
19
Normal Rest History Matches
31
1.79
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.16
17
Long Rest History Matches
24
1.53
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.29
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.00
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
20.0%
Draw rate
40.0%
20.0%
Loss rate
40.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
80.0%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
60.0%
1.72
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.10
5
Current Competition Matches
5
2.00
Current Competition PPG
1.00
0.20
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
2
Competition Season Count
4
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.20
Portability PPG Std
0.16
0.39
Portability PPG Range
0.38
71.74
Portability Score
76.21
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
38
Clean History Matches
57
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO70.23
PPG0.41
GF0.59
GA-0.21
PPG1.00
PPG0.82
PPG1.00
PPG0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-19
Clean-sheet rate2.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches-9
Clean-sheet rate5.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.09
History Matches-19
Goals Mean0.59
Goals Std0.42
Scored 1+ rate6.1%
Scored 2+ rate10.5%
Scored 3+ rate14.0%
Venue Goals Mean1.06
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.23
History Matches-19
Conceded Mean-0.21
Conceded Std-0.04
Clean-sheet rate2.6%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.06
Conceded 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Conceded Mean-0.64
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.13
History Matches-19
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std0.20
Stability score-0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.52
Eligible Matches-20
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate7.4%
Lead Points Retention0.05
Trailing Matches-8
Non-loss rate21.6%
Trailing Win Rate11.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches-20
First Half Goals For Mean0.35
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.09
Second Half Goals For Mean0.26
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.18
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.20
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.04
Portability PPG Range0.01
Portability Score-4.47
Rest days-0.98
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.00
Normal Rest History Matches-12
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.63
Long Rest History Matches-7
Long Rest Points Per Match0.24
Current Team ELO70.23
Current Opponent ELO-70.23
Current ELO Difference140.5
Expected score0.20
History Matches-19
Residual Mean0.08
Overperformance5.37
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.01

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

TuBa Pohlheim

W
Kassel 20–3TuBa Pohlheim1 Nov · away
Pick: TuBa Pohlheim 45% · hit
W
Bayern Alzenau0–1TuBa Pohlheim17 Oct · away
Pick: Bayern Alzenau 46% · missed
W
TuBa Pohlheim2–1FC Gießen4 Oct · home
Pick: TuBa Pohlheim 49% · hit
W
Hadamar0–2TuBa Pohlheim29 Aug · away
Pick: Hadamar 48% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

1960 Hanau

W
1960 Hanau3–1Friedberg1 Nov · home
Pick: 1960 Hanau 39% · hit
L
Unter-Flockenbach3–01960 Hanau24 Oct · away
Pick: Unter-Flockenbach 53% · hit
W
1960 Hanau1–0Darmstadt 98 II18 Oct · home
Pick: Darmstadt 98 II 54% · missed
W
1960 Hanau1–0Hadamar4 Oct · home
Pick: Hadamar 48% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

TuBa Pohlheim and 1960 Hanau meet in Oberliga - Hessen on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: TuBa Pohlheim win 43.6%, draw 21.7%, 1960 Hanau win 34.7%. The pick is TuBa Pohlheim win. Over 2.5 goals: 76.7%. Both teams to score: 70.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.