ScoreProb
Premier League Mongolia Round 14 2027

Ulaangom City vs Khovd

Ulaangom City Home · Elo 1,416
Mon 9 Nov
UTC
Not started
Khovd Away · Elo 1,405
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 3 Nov, 08:36 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Khovd win
Ulaangom City win
23.3%
Draw
17.7%
Khovd winPick
59.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes68.4%
No31.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.578.5%
Under 2.521.5%

How much we know

Ulaangom City history20 matches
Khovd history38 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 23 h ahead
    3 Nov · 08:36 UTC
  2. Re-published 4 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 08:08 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    9 Nov · 08:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (59.0%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Khovd are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,416 against 1,405. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Khovd score far more

    1.35 goals a game over 20 matches for Ulaangom City, against 2.11 over 38 for Khovd.

  • Khovd concede fewer

    Ulaangom City concede 5.85 a game, Khovd 3.50.

  • Ulaangom City games more often go over 2.5 goals

    95% of Ulaangom City matches, against 87% for Khovd. The model puts this match at 78% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 5 Jul 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Ulaangom City
Khovd
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1416.1
ELO
1404.7
20
ELO · Matches
38
1416.1
Current Team ELO
1404.7
1404.7
Current Opponent ELO
1416.1
11.41
Current ELO Difference
-11.41
0.52
Expected score
0.48
20
History Matches
38
-0.21
Residual Mean
-0.12
39.33
Overperformance
42.19
0.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.18
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
0.80
3.20
Goals for per game
2.20
4.00
Goals against per game
3.80
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
0.70
2.00
Goals for per game
1.80
4.70
Goals against per game
4.80
30.0%
Win rate
20.0%
2.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
1.61
Recent 10 Goals Std
2.04
4.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
4.80
3.58
Recent 10 Conceded Std
2.48
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
4.63
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
4.10
Overall performance9 signals
90
20
Matches
38
0.55
PPG
0.89
15.0%
Win rate
26.3%
10.0%
Draw rate
10.5%
75.0%
Loss rate
63.2%
95.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
95.0%
Over 2.5 rate
86.8%
95.0%
Over 3.5 rate
76.3%
4.06
Goal difference · Standard deviation
4.08
Venue performance10 signals
100
9
Matches
18
0.22
PPG
0.89
0.0%
Win rate
22.2%
22.2%
Draw rate
22.2%
77.8%
Loss rate
55.6%
88.9%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
88.9%
Over 2.5 rate
88.9%
88.9%
Over 3.5 rate
72.2%
3.90
Goal difference · Standard deviation
3.32
9
History Matches
18
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.35
Goals for per game
2.11
70.0%
Scoring rate
73.7%
70.0%
BTTS rate
68.4%
1.22
Goals for per game
1.67
77.8%
Scoring rate
77.8%
77.8%
BTTS rate
77.8%
20
History Matches
38
1.35
Goals Mean
2.11
1.39
Goals Std
2.43
70.0%
Scored 1+ rate
73.7%
30.0%
Scored 2+ rate
42.1%
20.0%
Scored 3+ rate
31.6%
1.22
Venue Goals Mean
1.67
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
5.85
Goals against per game
3.50
95.0%
Conceding rate
94.7%
6.11
Goals against per game
3.50
88.9%
Conceding rate
100.0%
20
History Matches
38
5.85
Conceded Mean
3.50
3.12
Conceded Std
2.33
95.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
81.6%
80.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
57.9%
6.11
Venue Conceded Mean
3.50
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
5.0%
Clean-sheet rate
5.3%
30.0%
Failed-to-score rate
26.3%
11.1%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
22.2%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
5.0%
Clean-sheet rate
5.3%
30.0%
Failed-to-score rate
26.3%
11.1%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
22.2%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
5.0%
Clean-sheet rate
5.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
20
History Matches
38
0.67
Result entropy
0.80
4.06
Goal Difference Std
4.08
33.50
Stability score
20.03
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
20
Eligible Matches
37
2
Lead Matches
8
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
87.5%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.92
14
Trailing Matches
18
14.3%
Non-loss rate
5.6%
7.1%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
20
Halftime Coverage Matches
37
0.60
First Half Goals For Mean
0.92
2.55
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.19
0.75
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.24
3.30
Second Half Goals Against Mean
2.35
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
127.9
Rest days
130.9
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
10
1.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.50
11
Normal Rest History Matches
18
0.27
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.44
5
Long Rest History Matches
9
0.80
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.33
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
1
Competition Season Count
2
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
—
Portability PPG Std
0.20
—
Portability PPG Range
0.40
—
Portability Score
71.54
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
20
Clean History Matches
38
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
ELO11.41
PPG-0.34
GF-0.76
GA2.35
PPG-0.67
PPG1.20
PPG0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-18
Clean-sheet rate0.00
Failed-to-score rate3.7%
History Matches-9
Clean-sheet rate11.1%
Failed-to-score rate0.0%
History Matches-18
Goals Mean-0.76
Goals Std-1.04
Scored 1+ rate-0.04
Scored 2+ rate-0.12
Scored 3+ rate-0.12
Venue Goals Mean-0.44
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.43
History Matches-18
Conceded Mean2.35
Conceded Std0.79
Clean-sheet rate0.00
Conceded 2+ rate13.4%
Conceded 3+ rate22.1%
Venue Conceded Mean2.61
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std1.10
History Matches-18
Result entropy-0.13
Goal Difference Std-0.03
Stability score13.47
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.21
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.53
Eligible Matches-17
Lead Matches-6
Lead Win Rate12.5%
Lead Points Retention0.08
Trailing Matches-4
Non-loss rate8.7%
Trailing Win Rate7.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches-17
First Half Goals For Mean-0.32
First Half Goals Against Mean1.36
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.49
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.95
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Rest days-3.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-7
Short Rest Points Per Match0.83
Normal Rest History Matches-7
Normal Rest Points Per Match-1.17
Long Rest History Matches-4
Long Rest Points Per Match0.47
Current Team ELO11.41
Current Opponent ELO-11.41
Current ELO Difference22.81
Expected score0.03
History Matches-18
Residual Mean-0.09
Overperformance-2.86
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.18

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Ulaangom City

D
Ulaangom City1–1Amtat FC1 Nov · home
Pick: Ulaangom City 57% · missed
L
Erchim5–1Ulaangom City28 Oct · away
Pick: Ulaangom City 49% · missed
L
Amtat FC4–2Ulaangom City15 Oct · away
Pick: Ulaangom City 45% · missed
L
Ulaanbaatar8–0Ulaangom City5 Oct · away
Pick: Ulaanbaatar 86% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Khovd

L
Khovd0–3Khovd Western1 Nov · home
Pick: Khovd Western 43% · hit
L
Amtat FC5–3Khovd28 Oct · away
Pick: Khovd 45% · missed
L
Khovd3–4Erchim24 Oct · home
Pick: Khovd 63% · missed
L
Hunters6–1Khovd15 Oct · away
Pick: Hunters 72% · hit
D
Deren3–3Khovd4 Oct · away
Pick: Deren 80% · missed

About this match

Ulaangom City and Khovd meet in Premier League on Monday 9 November 2026, kickoff 08:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 3 Nov, 08:36 UTC: Ulaangom City win 23.3%, draw 17.7%, Khovd win 59.0%. The pick is Khovd win. Over 2.5 goals: 78.5%. Both teams to score: 68.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.