ScoreProb
Second NL Croatia 2026

Uljanik vs Inter Zapresic

Uljanik Home · Elo 1,552
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Inter Zapresic Away · Elo 1,486
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Uljanik win
Uljanik winPick
77.4%
Draw
12.8%
Inter Zapresic win
9.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes42.5%
No57.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.571.7%
Under 2.528.3%

How much we know

Uljanik history48 matches
Inter Zapresic history2 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 10 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 01:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 70–79% band (77.4%). Picks in that band won 76.2% of the time, and the model said 73.9% on average, over 583 matches.

Why Uljanik are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Uljanik are rated 67 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,552 against 1,486. On rating alone Uljanik would be expected to take 59% of the points on offer.

  • Uljanik score far more

    1.63 goals a game over 48 matches for Uljanik, against 0.00 over 2 for Inter Zapresic.

  • Uljanik concede fewer

    Uljanik concede 1.46 a game, Inter Zapresic 2.50.

  • Uljanik games more often go over 2.5 goals

    63% of Uljanik matches, against 50% for Inter Zapresic. The model puts this match at 72% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Uljanik
Inter Zapresic
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1552.5
ELO
1485.7
48
ELO · Matches
2
1552.5
Current Team ELO
1485.7
1485.7
Current Opponent ELO
1552.5
66.80
Current ELO Difference
-66.80
0.59
Expected score
0.41
48
History Matches
2
0.05
Residual Mean
-0.44
53.80
Overperformance
45.96
0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.44
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
2
2.00
PPG
0.00
2.80
Goals for per game
0.00
2.80
Goals against per game
2.50
60.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
2
1.70
PPG
0.00
2.20
Goals for per game
0.00
2.00
Goals against per game
2.50
50.0%
Win rate
0.0%
2.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.00
1.33
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.00
2.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.50
1.34
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.50
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.00
1.72
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.50
Overall performance9 signals
90
48
Matches
2
1.65
PPG
0.00
50.0%
Win rate
0.0%
14.6%
Draw rate
0.0%
35.4%
Loss rate
100.0%
85.4%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
62.5%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.89
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.50
Venue performance10 signals
100
24
Matches
2
1.96
PPG
0.00
62.5%
Win rate
0.0%
8.3%
Draw rate
0.0%
29.2%
Loss rate
100.0%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
54.2%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
2.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.50
24
History Matches
2
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.63
Goals for per game
0.00
85.4%
Scoring rate
0.0%
56.3%
BTTS rate
0.0%
1.67
Goals for per game
0.00
91.7%
Scoring rate
0.0%
45.8%
BTTS rate
0.0%
3.00
Goals for per game
0.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
0.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
48
History Matches
2
1.63
Goals Mean
0.00
1.15
Goals Std
0.00
85.4%
Scored 1+ rate
0.0%
47.9%
Scored 2+ rate
0.0%
18.8%
Scored 3+ rate
0.0%
1.67
Venue Goals Mean
0.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.46
Goals against per game
2.50
70.8%
Conceding rate
100.0%
1.29
Goals against per game
2.50
54.2%
Conceding rate
100.0%
2.00
Goals against per game
3.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
48
History Matches
2
1.46
Conceded Mean
2.50
1.27
Conceded Std
0.50
45.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
100.0%
20.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
50.0%
1.29
Venue Conceded Mean
2.50
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
29.2%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
14.6%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
45.8%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
8.3%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
29.2%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
14.6%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
45.8%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
8.3%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
29.2%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
48
History Matches
2
0.91
Result entropy
0.00
1.89
Goal Difference Std
0.50
9.43
Stability score
100.0
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
48
Eligible Matches
2
17
Lead Matches
0
82.4%
Lead Win Rate
—
0.88
Lead Points Retention
—
16
Trailing Matches
2
18.8%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
48
Halftime Coverage Matches
2
0.79
First Half Goals For Mean
0.00
0.73
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.00
0.83
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.00
0.73
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.50
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.90
Rest days
76.90
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
0
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
31
Normal Rest History Matches
0
1.71
Normal Rest Points Per Match
—
14
Long Rest History Matches
1
1.43
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
3.00
PPG
0.00
100.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
3.00
Current Competition PPG
0.00
1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-3.00
4
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
0
0.17
Portability PPG Std
—
0.33
Portability PPG Range
—
75.00
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
48
Clean History Matches
2
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreLead Win RateLead Points RetentionPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per MatchNormal Rest Points Per Match
ELO66.80
PPG1.65
GF1.63
GA-1.04
PPG3.00
PPG1.96
PPG2.00
PPG1.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches46
Clean-sheet rate29.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.85
History Matches22
Clean-sheet rate45.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.92
History Matches46
Goals Mean1.63
Goals Std1.15
Scored 1+ rate85.4%
Scored 2+ rate47.9%
Scored 3+ rate18.8%
Venue Goals Mean1.67
Recent 10 Goals Mean2.20
Recent 10 Goals Std1.33
History Matches46
Conceded Mean-1.04
Conceded Std0.77
Clean-sheet rate29.2%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.54
Conceded 3+ rate-0.29
Venue Conceded Mean-1.21
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.84
History Matches46
Result entropy0.91
Goal Difference Std1.39
Stability score-90.57
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.94
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.22
Eligible Matches46
Lead Matches17
Trailing Matches14
Non-loss rate18.8%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches46
First Half Goals For Mean0.79
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.27
Second Half Goals For Mean0.83
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.77
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG3.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean4.00
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Rest days1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest History Matches31
Long Rest History Matches13
Long Rest Points Per Match1.43
Current Team ELO66.80
Current Opponent ELO-66.80
Current ELO Difference133.6
Expected score0.19
History Matches46
Residual Mean0.50
Overperformance7.85
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.50

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Uljanik

W
Varteks Varaždin0–1Uljanik31 Oct · away
Pick: Uljanik 37% · hit
L
Uljanik1–3Uskok Klis23 Oct · home
Pick: Uskok Klis 41% · hit
L
Grobničan Čavle2–0Uljanik16 Oct · away
Pick: Uljanik 53% · missed
W
Solin1–3Uljanik30 Aug · away
Pick: Solin 42% · missed
L
Cuba U204–0Uljanik26 Aug · away
Pick: Uljanik 43% · missed

Inter Zapresic

W
Inter Zapresic2–1Solin31 Oct · home
Pick: Solin 51% · missed
D
Hrvatski Dragovoljac1–1Inter Zapresic24 Oct · away
Pick: Hrvatski Dragovoljac 66% · missed
D
Inter Zapresic2–2Jarun17 Oct · home
Pick: Jarun 42% · missed
W
Koprivnica1–2Inter Zapresic12 Oct · away
Pick: Koprivnica 67% · missed
W
Križevci0–3Inter Zapresic29 Aug · away
Pick: Križevci 80% · missed

About this match

Uljanik and Inter Zapresic meet in Second NL on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Uljanik win 77.4%, draw 12.8%, Inter Zapresic win 9.9%. The pick is Uljanik win. Over 2.5 goals: 71.7%. Both teams to score: 42.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.