ScoreProb
Second NL Croatia Round 12 2026

Trnje vs Križevci

Trnje Home · Elo 1,472
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Križevci Away · Elo 1,527
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Križevci win
Trnje win
31.5%
Draw
25.9%
Križevci winPick
42.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes49.5%
No50.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.560.7%
Under 2.539.3%

How much we know

Trnje history48 matches
Križevci history53 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (42.6%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Križevci are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Križevci are rated 55 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,527 against 1,472. On rating alone Križevci would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.

  • Križevci score more

    1.35 goals a game over 48 matches for Trnje, against 1.60 over 53 for Križevci.

  • Križevci concede fewer

    Trnje concede 1.83 a game, Križevci 1.23.

  • Trnje games more often go over 2.5 goals

    65% of Trnje matches, against 53% for Križevci. The model puts this match at 61% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Trnje
Križevci
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1472.0
ELO
1527.0
48
ELO · Matches
53
1472.0
Current Team ELO
1527.0
1527.0
Current Opponent ELO
1472.0
-55.01
Current ELO Difference
55.01
0.42
Expected score
0.58
48
History Matches
53
-0.03
Residual Mean
0.03
48.06
Overperformance
52.12
0.12
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.15
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.00
2.20
Goals for per game
1.00
0.80
Goals against per game
1.00
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
1.10
1.60
Goals for per game
1.10
1.20
Goals against per game
1.20
40.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.04
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
0.98
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.98
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.91
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.58
Overall performance9 signals
90
48
Matches
53
1.13
PPG
1.60
31.3%
Win rate
47.2%
18.8%
Draw rate
18.9%
50.0%
Loss rate
34.0%
77.1%
Over 1.5 rate
75.5%
64.6%
Over 2.5 rate
52.8%
43.8%
Over 3.5 rate
34.0%
2.04
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.97
Venue performance10 signals
100
24
Matches
25
1.42
PPG
1.08
41.7%
Win rate
28.0%
16.7%
Draw rate
24.0%
41.7%
Loss rate
48.0%
70.8%
Over 1.5 rate
72.0%
62.5%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
45.8%
Over 3.5 rate
44.0%
1.89
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.88
24
History Matches
25
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.35
Goals for per game
1.60
62.5%
Scoring rate
73.6%
52.1%
BTTS rate
41.5%
1.67
Goals for per game
1.32
75.0%
Scoring rate
60.0%
54.2%
BTTS rate
48.0%
3.00
Goals for per game
3.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
48
History Matches
53
1.35
Goals Mean
1.60
1.41
Goals Std
1.36
62.5%
Scored 1+ rate
73.6%
39.6%
Scored 2+ rate
47.2%
20.8%
Scored 3+ rate
28.3%
1.67
Venue Goals Mean
1.32
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.83
Goals against per game
1.23
85.4%
Conceding rate
60.4%
1.58
Goals against per game
1.72
70.8%
Conceding rate
76.0%
0.00
Goals against per game
0.00
0.0%
Conceding rate
0.0%
48
History Matches
53
1.83
Conceded Mean
1.23
1.34
Conceded Std
1.30
52.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
35.8%
27.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
17.0%
1.58
Venue Conceded Mean
1.72
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
14.6%
Clean-sheet rate
39.6%
37.5%
Failed-to-score rate
26.4%
29.2%
Clean-sheet rate
24.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
14.6%
Clean-sheet rate
39.6%
37.5%
Failed-to-score rate
26.4%
29.2%
Clean-sheet rate
24.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
14.6%
Clean-sheet rate
39.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
48
History Matches
53
0.93
Result entropy
0.94
2.04
Goal Difference Std
1.97
6.80
Stability score
5.71
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
48
Eligible Matches
52
10
Lead Matches
19
80.0%
Lead Win Rate
84.2%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.88
22
Trailing Matches
16
18.2%
Non-loss rate
25.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
6.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
48
Halftime Coverage Matches
52
0.58
First Half Goals For Mean
0.65
1.04
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.60
0.77
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.92
0.79
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.65
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.90
Rest days
76.90
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
2
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.50
30
Normal Rest History Matches
31
1.10
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.35
17
Long Rest History Matches
19
1.24
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.95
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
3.00
PPG
3.00
100.0%
Win rate
100.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
3.00
Current Competition PPG
3.00
3.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
3.00
4
Competition Season Count
5
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.02
Portability PPG Std
0.45
0.03
Portability PPG Range
1.07
96.77
Portability Score
52.68
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
48
Clean History Matches
53
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-55.01
PPG-0.48
GF-0.25
GA0.61
PPG0.00
PPG0.34
PPG1.00
PPG0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-5
Clean-sheet rate-0.25
Failed-to-score rate11.1%
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate5.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.15
History Matches-5
Goals Mean-0.25
Goals Std0.04
Scored 1+ rate-0.11
Scored 2+ rate-0.08
Scored 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Goals Mean0.35
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std0.45
History Matches-5
Conceded Mean0.61
Conceded Std0.05
Clean-sheet rate-0.25
Conceded 2+ rate16.2%
Conceded 3+ rate10.1%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.14
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.00
History Matches-5
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std0.07
Stability score1.09
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.33
Eligible Matches-4
Lead Matches-9
Lead Win Rate-0.04
Lead Points Retention-0.04
Trailing Matches6
Non-loss rate-0.07
Trailing Win Rate-0.06
Halftime Coverage Matches-4
First Half Goals For Mean-0.07
First Half Goals Against Mean0.45
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.15
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.14
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.00
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.43
Portability PPG Range-1.03
Portability Score44.10
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.25
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.71
Current Team ELO-55.01
Current Opponent ELO55.01
Current ELO Difference-110.0
Expected score-0.16
History Matches-5
Residual Mean-0.06
Overperformance-4.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.27

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Trnje

D
Trnje0–0Dugo Selo30 Oct · home
Pick: Trnje 53% · missed
L
Slavonija Požega3–1Trnje24 Oct · away
Pick: Trnje 46% · missed
D
Trnje2–2Zagora17 Oct · home
Pick: Trnje 57% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Križevci

W
Križevci2–0Slavonija Požega31 Oct · home
Pick: Križevci 71% · hit
D
Zagora1–1Križevci24 Oct · away
Pick: Križevci 46% · missed
D
Križevci1–1Lucko17 Oct · home
Pick: Križevci 62% · missed
L
Križevci0–3Inter Zapresic29 Aug · home
Pick: Križevci 80% · missed
L
Orijent 19193–1Križevci26 Aug · away
Pick: Orijent 1919 49% · hit

About this match

Trnje and Križevci meet in Second NL on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Trnje win 31.5%, draw 25.9%, Križevci win 42.6%. The pick is Križevci win. Over 2.5 goals: 60.7%. Both teams to score: 49.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.