ScoreProb
Elitettan Sweden Round 25 2026

Umeå W vs Alingsås W

Umeå W Home · Elo 1,541
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Alingsås W Away · Elo 1,368
Umea Energi Arena Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Umeå W win
Umeå W winPick
68.7%
Draw
17.7%
Alingsås W win
13.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes51.1%
No48.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.565.6%
Under 2.534.4%

How much we know

Umeå W history49 matches
Alingsås W history48 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (68.7%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Umeå W are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Umeå W are rated 173 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,541 against 1,368. On rating alone Umeå W would be expected to take 73% of the points on offer.

  • Umeå W score far more

    1.82 goals a game over 49 matches for Umeå W, against 0.79 over 48 for Alingsås W.

  • Umeå W concede fewer

    Umeå W concede 1.22 a game, Alingsås W 2.48.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    53% of Umeå W matches, against 60% for Alingsås W. The model puts this match at 66% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Umeå W
Alingsås W
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1540.8
ELO
1368.1
49
ELO · Matches
48
1540.8
Current Team ELO
1368.1
1368.1
Current Opponent ELO
1540.8
172.7
Current ELO Difference
-172.7
0.73
Expected score
0.27
49
History Matches
48
0.04
Residual Mean
-0.14
52.97
Overperformance
40.31
-0.11
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.09
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.60
PPG
1.20
2.40
Goals for per game
1.60
0.40
Goals against per game
1.60
80.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.00
1.40
Goals for per game
1.00
1.30
Goals against per game
1.50
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
1.69
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.10
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
1.19
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.20
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
2.47
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.57
Overall performance9 signals
90
49
Matches
48
1.67
PPG
0.54
44.9%
Win rate
12.5%
32.7%
Draw rate
16.7%
22.4%
Loss rate
70.8%
81.6%
Over 1.5 rate
70.8%
53.1%
Over 2.5 rate
60.4%
40.8%
Over 3.5 rate
37.5%
2.26
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.20
Venue performance10 signals
100
25
Matches
25
1.76
PPG
0.48
48.0%
Win rate
12.0%
32.0%
Draw rate
12.0%
20.0%
Loss rate
76.0%
84.0%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
56.0%
Over 2.5 rate
76.0%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
44.0%
1.92
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.56
25
History Matches
25
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.82
Goals for per game
0.79
79.6%
Scoring rate
47.9%
51.0%
BTTS rate
41.7%
1.72
Goals for per game
0.96
84.0%
Scoring rate
56.0%
52.0%
BTTS rate
52.0%
1.60
Goals for per game
0.87
80.0%
Scoring rate
53.3%
53.3%
BTTS rate
40.0%
49
History Matches
48
1.82
Goals Mean
0.79
1.60
Goals Std
1.10
79.6%
Scored 1+ rate
47.9%
49.0%
Scored 2+ rate
16.7%
26.5%
Scored 3+ rate
10.4%
1.72
Venue Goals Mean
0.96
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.22
Goals against per game
2.48
65.3%
Conceding rate
87.5%
1.24
Goals against per game
3.04
60.0%
Conceding rate
92.0%
1.27
Goals against per game
1.47
73.3%
Conceding rate
80.0%
49
History Matches
48
1.22
Conceded Mean
2.48
1.25
Conceded Std
1.94
34.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
60.4%
12.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
43.8%
1.24
Venue Conceded Mean
3.04
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
34.7%
Clean-sheet rate
12.5%
20.4%
Failed-to-score rate
52.1%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
8.0%
16.0%
Failed-to-score rate
44.0%
26.7%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
46.7%
34.7%
Clean-sheet rate
12.5%
20.4%
Failed-to-score rate
52.1%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
8.0%
16.0%
Failed-to-score rate
44.0%
34.7%
Clean-sheet rate
12.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
49
History Matches
48
0.97
Result entropy
0.73
2.26
Goal Difference Std
2.20
3.48
Stability score
26.92
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
49
Eligible Matches
48
19
Lead Matches
7
78.9%
Lead Win Rate
42.9%
0.86
Lead Points Retention
0.52
13
Trailing Matches
26
38.5%
Non-loss rate
11.5%
15.4%
Trailing Win Rate
3.8%
Goal timing5 signals
50
49
Halftime Coverage Matches
48
0.84
First Half Goals For Mean
0.27
0.53
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.08
0.98
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.52
0.69
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.40
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
78.04
Rest days
78.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
28
Normal Rest History Matches
20
1.64
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.35
20
Long Rest History Matches
27
1.75
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.70
Competition & season17 signals
170
15
Matches
15
1.60
PPG
0.93
46.7%
Win rate
20.0%
20.0%
Draw rate
33.3%
33.3%
Loss rate
46.7%
86.7%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
46.7%
Over 2.5 rate
40.0%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
20.0%
1.89
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.50
15
Current Competition Matches
15
1.60
Current Competition PPG
0.93
0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.60
5
Competition Season Count
4
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.62
Portability PPG Std
0.36
1.46
Portability PPG Range
0.93
44.84
Portability Score
58.02
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
49
Clean History Matches
48
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO172.7
PPG1.13
GF1.02
GA-1.25
PPG0.67
PPG1.28
PPG1.40
PPG0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate22.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.32
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate32.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.28
History Matches1
Goals Mean1.02
Goals Std0.50
Scored 1+ rate31.7%
Scored 2+ rate32.3%
Scored 3+ rate16.1%
Venue Goals Mean0.76
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std0.59
History Matches1
Conceded Mean-1.25
Conceded Std-0.69
Clean-sheet rate22.2%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.26
Conceded 3+ rate-0.32
Venue Conceded Mean-1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.02
History Matches1
Result entropy0.23
Goal Difference Std0.06
Stability score-23.44
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.90
Eligible Matches1
Lead Matches12
Lead Win Rate36.1%
Lead Points Retention0.34
Trailing Matches-13
Non-loss rate26.9%
Trailing Win Rate11.5%
Halftime Coverage Matches1
First Half Goals For Mean0.57
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.55
Second Half Goals For Mean0.46
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.70
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.93
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.25
Portability PPG Range0.53
Portability Score-13.17
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches8
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.29
Long Rest History Matches-7
Long Rest Points Per Match1.05
Current Team ELO172.7
Current Opponent ELO-172.7
Current ELO Difference345.4
Expected score0.46
History Matches1
Residual Mean0.18
Overperformance12.66
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.20

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Umeå W

W
Umeå W3–0Örebro SK W1 Nov · home
Pick: Umeå W 57% · hit
W
Trelleborg W0–4Umeå W24 Oct · away
Pick: Umeå W 42% · hit
D
Linköping W0–0Umeå W17 Oct · away
Pick: Linköping W 45% · missed
W
Umeå W2–0Husqvarna W4 Oct · home
Pick: Umeå W 61% · hit
L
KIF Örebro W2–1Umeå W29 Aug · away
Pick: KIF Örebro W 53% · hit

Alingsås W

D
Elfsborg W0–0Alingsås W30 Oct · away
Pick: Elfsborg W 75% · missed
L
Alingsås W0–2KIF Örebro W24 Oct · home
Pick: KIF Örebro W 67% · hit
W
Alingsås W2–0Häcken II W17 Oct · home
Pick: Alingsås W 51% · hit
L
Alingsås W0–3Elfsborg W8 Oct · home
Pick: Elfsborg W 49% · hit
L
Göteborg W2–1Alingsås W4 Oct · away
Pick: Göteborg W 77% · hit

About this match

Umeå W and Alingsås W meet in Elitettan on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. The match is played at Umea Energi Arena. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Umeå W win 68.7%, draw 17.7%, Alingsås W win 13.6%. The pick is Umeå W win. Over 2.5 goals: 65.6%. Both teams to score: 51.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.