ScoreProb
1. Lig Türkiye Round 14 2026

Ümraniyespor vs Kayserispor

Ümraniyespor Home · Elo 1,466
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Kayserispor Away · Elo 1,498
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Kayserispor win
Ümraniyespor win
32.8%
Draw
26.2%
Kayserispor winPick
41.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes48.6%
No51.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.548.9%
Under 2.551.1%

How much we know

Ümraniyespor history60 matches
Kayserispor history59 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (41.0%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Kayserispor are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Kayserispor are rated 32 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,498 against 1,466. On rating alone Kayserispor would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.13 goals a game over 60 matches for Ümraniyespor, against 1.08 over 59 for Kayserispor.

  • Ümraniyespor concede fewer

    Ümraniyespor concede 1.27 a game, Kayserispor 1.42.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    42% of Ümraniyespor matches, against 46% for Kayserispor. The model puts this match at 49% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Ümraniyespor
Kayserispor
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1466.3
ELO
1498.4
60
ELO · Matches
59
1466.3
Current Team ELO
1498.4
1498.4
Current Opponent ELO
1466.3
-32.02
Current ELO Difference
32.02
0.45
Expected score
0.55
60
History Matches
59
-0.02
Residual Mean
0.01
48.19
Overperformance
50.52
-0.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.11
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.40
PPG
2.40
0.80
Goals for per game
1.60
2.40
Goals against per game
0.60
0.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
0.90
PPG
1.60
1.20
Goals for per game
1.20
1.80
Goals against per game
1.40
20.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
0.87
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.75
1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
1.54
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.43
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.80
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.09
Overall performance9 signals
90
60
Matches
59
1.20
PPG
1.29
31.7%
Win rate
32.2%
25.0%
Draw rate
32.2%
43.3%
Loss rate
35.6%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
72.9%
41.7%
Over 2.5 rate
45.8%
23.3%
Over 3.5 rate
28.8%
1.92
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.87
Venue performance10 signals
100
31
Matches
27
1.48
PPG
0.78
38.7%
Win rate
11.1%
32.3%
Draw rate
44.4%
29.0%
Loss rate
44.4%
67.7%
Over 1.5 rate
74.1%
45.2%
Over 2.5 rate
37.0%
25.8%
Over 3.5 rate
22.2%
1.90
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.47
31
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.13
Goals for per game
1.08
63.3%
Scoring rate
67.8%
43.3%
BTTS rate
45.8%
1.42
Goals for per game
0.78
74.2%
Scoring rate
59.3%
51.6%
BTTS rate
48.1%
0.67
Goals for per game
1.67
66.7%
Scoring rate
100.0%
66.7%
BTTS rate
0.0%
60
History Matches
59
1.13
Goals Mean
1.08
1.30
Goals Std
1.08
63.3%
Scored 1+ rate
67.8%
25.0%
Scored 2+ rate
23.7%
13.3%
Scored 3+ rate
13.6%
1.42
Venue Goals Mean
0.78
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.27
Goals against per game
1.42
70.0%
Conceding rate
67.8%
1.13
Goals against per game
1.59
61.3%
Conceding rate
77.8%
1.00
Goals against per game
0.00
66.7%
Conceding rate
0.0%
60
History Matches
59
1.27
Conceded Mean
1.42
1.22
Conceded Std
1.33
33.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
40.7%
13.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
23.7%
1.13
Venue Conceded Mean
1.59
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
30.0%
Clean-sheet rate
32.2%
36.7%
Failed-to-score rate
32.2%
38.7%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
25.8%
Failed-to-score rate
40.7%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
30.0%
Clean-sheet rate
32.2%
36.7%
Failed-to-score rate
32.2%
38.7%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
25.8%
Failed-to-score rate
40.7%
30.0%
Clean-sheet rate
32.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
60
History Matches
59
0.98
Result entropy
1.00
1.92
Goal Difference Std
1.87
2.32
Stability score
0.10
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
60
Eligible Matches
58
12
Lead Matches
12
83.3%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.89
Lead Points Retention
1.00
16
Trailing Matches
22
12.5%
Non-loss rate
27.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
60
Halftime Coverage Matches
58
0.48
First Half Goals For Mean
0.38
0.55
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.64
0.65
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.71
0.72
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.78
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.88
Rest days
77.88
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
42
Normal Rest History Matches
33
1.19
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.48
16
Long Rest History Matches
25
1.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.04
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
0.67
PPG
3.00
0.0%
Win rate
100.0%
66.7%
Draw rate
0.0%
33.3%
Loss rate
0.0%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.47
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.47
3
Current Competition Matches
3
0.67
Current Competition PPG
3.00
-0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.67
5
Competition Season Count
6
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.31
Portability PPG Std
0.79
0.75
Portability PPG Range
2.12
61.37
Portability Score
38.75
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
60
Clean History Matches
59
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-32.02
PPG-0.09
GF0.05
GA-0.16
PPG-2.33
PPG0.71
PPG-2.00
PPG-0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Failed-to-score rate4.5%
History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate16.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.15
History Matches1
Goals Mean0.05
Goals Std0.22
Scored 1+ rate-0.04
Scored 2+ rate1.3%
Scored 3+ rate0.00
Venue Goals Mean0.64
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std0.12
History Matches1
Conceded Mean-0.16
Conceded Std-0.11
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Conceded 2+ rate-0.07
Conceded 3+ rate-0.10
Venue Conceded Mean-0.46
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.11
History Matches1
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std0.05
Stability score2.22
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.29
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches0
Lead Win Rate-0.17
Lead Points Retention-0.11
Trailing Matches-6
Non-loss rate-0.15
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean0.10
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.09
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.06
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.06
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-2.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-2.00
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.48
Portability PPG Range-1.37
Portability Score22.62
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches9
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.29
Long Rest History Matches-9
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.04
Current Team ELO-32.02
Current Opponent ELO32.02
Current ELO Difference-64.05
Expected score-0.09
History Matches1
Residual Mean-0.03
Overperformance-2.34
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.20

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Ümraniyespor

D
Bodrum FK1–1Ümraniyespor1 Nov · away
Pick: Bodrum FK 49% · missed
W
Ümraniyespor4–0Sivasspor24 Oct · home
Pick: Ümraniyespor 44% · hit
W
Vanspor FK0–2Ümraniyespor18 Oct · away
Pick: Vanspor FK 41% · missed
L
Ümraniyespor0–1Muğlaspor1 Sep · home
Pick: Ümraniyespor 39% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Kayserispor

W
Kayserispor6–0Muğlaspor2 Nov · home
Pick: Kayserispor 41% · hit
L
Bitlis Özgüzelderespor4–1Kayserispor29 Oct · away
Pick: Bitlis Özgüzelderespor 36% · hit
D
Pendikspor2–2Kayserispor25 Oct · away
Pick: Pendikspor 36% · missed
D
Kayserispor2–2Batman Petrolspor18 Oct · home
Pick: Kayserispor 45% · missed
W
Antalyaspor0–4Kayserispor14 Oct · away
Pick: Kayserispor 41% · hit

About this match

Ümraniyespor and Kayserispor meet in 1. Lig on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Ümraniyespor win 32.8%, draw 26.2%, Kayserispor win 41.0%. The pick is Kayserispor win. Over 2.5 goals: 48.9%. Both teams to score: 48.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.