ScoreProb
Oberliga - Bremen Germany Bremen - 13 2026

Union Bremen vs Grohn

Union Bremen Home · Elo 1,512
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Grohn Away · Elo 1,502
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Union Bremen win
Union Bremen winPick
74.8%
Draw
13.8%
Grohn win
11.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes57.2%
No42.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.572.3%
Under 2.527.7%

How much we know

Union Bremen history47 matches
Grohn history3 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 70–79% band (74.8%). Picks in that band won 76.2% of the time, and the model said 73.9% on average, over 583 matches.

Why Union Bremen are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,512 against 1,502. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Union Bremen score far more

    2.62 goals a game over 47 matches for Union Bremen, against 0.67 over 3 for Grohn.

  • Union Bremen concede fewer

    Union Bremen concede 2.17 a game, Grohn 2.67.

  • Union Bremen games more often go over 2.5 goals

    87% of Union Bremen matches, against 33% for Grohn. The model puts this match at 72% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Union Bremen
Grohn
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1511.8
ELO
1502.1
47
ELO · Matches
3
1511.8
Current Team ELO
1502.1
1502.1
Current Opponent ELO
1511.8
9.70
Current ELO Difference
-9.70
0.51
Expected score
0.49
47
History Matches
3
0.01
Residual Mean
0.07
50.72
Overperformance
50.89
-0.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.07
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
3
1.20
PPG
1.33
2.60
Goals for per game
0.67
2.60
Goals against per game
2.67
20.0%
Win rate
33.3%
10
Matches
3
1.00
PPG
1.33
2.50
Goals for per game
0.67
2.80
Goals against per game
2.67
20.0%
Win rate
33.3%
2.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.67
2.29
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.47
2.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.67
1.25
Recent 10 Conceded Std
3.09
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
1.00
3.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
3.56
Overall performance9 signals
90
47
Matches
3
1.47
PPG
1.33
44.7%
Win rate
33.3%
12.8%
Draw rate
33.3%
42.6%
Loss rate
33.3%
95.7%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
87.2%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
66.0%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
2.97
Goal difference · Standard deviation
3.56
Venue performance10 signals
100
23
Matches
1
1.35
PPG
1.00
39.1%
Win rate
0.0%
17.4%
Draw rate
100.0%
43.5%
Loss rate
0.0%
95.7%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
87.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
65.2%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
2.53
Goal difference · Standard deviation
—
23
History Matches
1
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.62
Goals for per game
0.67
85.1%
Scoring rate
66.7%
74.5%
BTTS rate
33.3%
2.35
Goals for per game
1.00
91.3%
Scoring rate
100.0%
82.6%
BTTS rate
100.0%
3.00
Goals for per game
0.67
100.0%
Scoring rate
66.7%
66.7%
BTTS rate
33.3%
47
History Matches
3
2.62
Goals Mean
0.67
2.28
Goals Std
0.47
85.1%
Scored 1+ rate
66.7%
59.6%
Scored 2+ rate
0.0%
40.4%
Scored 3+ rate
0.0%
2.35
Venue Goals Mean
1.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
2.17
Goals against per game
2.67
89.4%
Conceding rate
66.7%
2.17
Goals against per game
1.00
91.3%
Conceding rate
100.0%
1.67
Goals against per game
2.67
66.7%
Conceding rate
66.7%
47
History Matches
3
2.17
Conceded Mean
2.67
1.36
Conceded Std
3.09
66.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
33.3%
38.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
33.3%
2.17
Venue Conceded Mean
1.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
10.6%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
14.9%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
8.7%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
8.7%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
10.6%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
14.9%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
8.7%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
8.7%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
10.6%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
47
History Matches
3
0.90
Result entropy
1.00
2.97
Goal Difference Std
3.56
10.22
Stability score
0.00
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
47
Eligible Matches
3
23
Lead Matches
2
82.6%
Lead Win Rate
50.0%
0.87
Lead Points Retention
0.67
12
Trailing Matches
1
16.7%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
47
Halftime Coverage Matches
3
1.34
First Half Goals For Mean
0.67
0.85
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.00
1.28
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.00
1.32
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.67
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
77.79
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
24
Normal Rest History Matches
1
1.25
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.00
21
Long Rest History Matches
1
1.71
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
1.67
PPG
1.33
33.3%
Win rate
33.3%
66.7%
Draw rate
33.3%
0.0%
Loss rate
33.3%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.89
Goal difference · Standard deviation
3.56
3
Current Competition Matches
3
1.67
Current Competition PPG
1.33
1.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-2.00
4
Competition Season Count
1
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.23
Portability PPG Std
—
0.51
Portability PPG Range
—
68.71
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
47
Clean History Matches
3
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO9.70
PPG0.13
GF1.95
GA-0.50
PPG0.33
PPG0.35
PPG-0.13
PPG-0.33
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches44
Clean-sheet rate-0.23
Failed-to-score rate-0.18
History Matches22
Clean-sheet rate8.7%
Failed-to-score rate8.7%
History Matches44
Goals Mean1.95
Goals Std1.81
Scored 1+ rate18.4%
Scored 2+ rate59.6%
Scored 3+ rate40.4%
Venue Goals Mean1.35
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.83
Recent 10 Goals Std1.82
History Matches44
Conceded Mean-0.50
Conceded Std-1.73
Clean-sheet rate-0.23
Conceded 2+ rate32.6%
Conceded 3+ rate5.0%
Venue Conceded Mean1.17
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.13
Recent 10 Conceded Std-1.84
History Matches44
Result entropy-0.10
Goal Difference Std-0.59
Stability score10.22
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.04
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.46
Eligible Matches44
Lead Matches21
Lead Win Rate32.6%
Lead Points Retention0.20
Trailing Matches11
Non-loss rate16.7%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches44
First Half Goals For Mean0.67
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.15
Second Half Goals For Mean1.28
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.35
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean3.33
Competition Season Count3
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Rest days-0.75
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches23
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.25
Long Rest History Matches20
Long Rest Points Per Match1.71
Current Team ELO9.70
Current Opponent ELO-9.70
Current ELO Difference19.40
Expected score0.03
History Matches44
Residual Mean-0.06
Overperformance-0.16
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.17

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Union Bremen

L
BTS Neustadt3–2Union Bremen31 Oct · away
Pick: Union Bremen 58% · missed
D
Union Bremen2–2Werder Bremen III24 Oct · home
Pick: Union Bremen 68% · missed
L
Geestemünde4–1Union Bremen18 Oct · away
Pick: Union Bremen 54% · missed
L
Hemelingen6–1Union Bremen30 Aug · away
Pick: Hemelingen 76% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Grohn

W
Grohn4–2Oberneuland1 Nov · home
Pick: Oberneuland 44% · missed
L
Grohn1–9Leher TS18 Oct · home
Pick: Leher TS 46% · hit
W
Vatan Sport2–3Grohn30 Aug · away
Pick: Vatan Sport 74% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Union Bremen and Grohn meet in Oberliga - Bremen on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Union Bremen win 74.8%, draw 13.8%, Grohn win 11.4%. The pick is Union Bremen win. Over 2.5 goals: 72.3%. Both teams to score: 57.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.