ScoreProb
Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 Spain Group 13 - 10 2026

Unión Molinense vs Atlético Pulpileño

Unión Molinense Home · Elo 1,557
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Atlético Pulpileño Away · Elo 1,529
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Unión Molinense win
Unión Molinense winPick
43.7%
Draw
31.5%
Atlético Pulpileño win
24.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes44.8%
No55.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.541.3%
Under 2.558.7%

How much we know

Unión Molinense history55 matches
Atlético Pulpileño history55 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 16:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (43.7%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Unión Molinense are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Unión Molinense are rated 28 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,557 against 1,529. On rating alone Unión Molinense would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.

  • Unión Molinense score far more

    1.29 goals a game over 55 matches for Unión Molinense, against 0.84 over 55 for Atlético Pulpileño.

  • Atlético Pulpileño concede fewer

    Unión Molinense concede 0.85 a game, Atlético Pulpileño 0.75.

  • Unión Molinense games more often go over 2.5 goals

    36% of Unión Molinense matches, against 20% for Atlético Pulpileño. The model puts this match at 41% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Unión Molinense
Atlético Pulpileño
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1556.9
ELO
1528.8
55
ELO · Matches
55
1556.9
Current Team ELO
1528.8
1528.8
Current Opponent ELO
1556.9
28.14
Current ELO Difference
-28.14
0.54
Expected score
0.46
55
History Matches
55
0.05
Residual Mean
0.02
53.77
Overperformance
51.77
-0.13
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.06
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.60
0.80
Goals for per game
0.60
0.80
Goals against per game
0.40
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
1.60
1.20
Goals for per game
0.90
1.10
Goals against per game
0.70
30.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.90
1.17
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.54
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.70
1.04
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.90
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.64
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.08
Overall performance9 signals
90
55
Matches
55
1.71
PPG
1.47
47.3%
Win rate
38.2%
29.1%
Draw rate
32.7%
23.6%
Loss rate
29.1%
65.5%
Over 1.5 rate
41.8%
36.4%
Over 2.5 rate
20.0%
12.7%
Over 3.5 rate
10.9%
1.47
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.15
Venue performance10 signals
100
28
Matches
28
1.68
PPG
1.00
46.4%
Win rate
21.4%
28.6%
Draw rate
35.7%
25.0%
Loss rate
42.9%
85.7%
Over 1.5 rate
57.1%
46.4%
Over 2.5 rate
28.6%
21.4%
Over 3.5 rate
14.3%
1.72
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.08
28
History Matches
28
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.29
Goals for per game
0.84
72.7%
Scoring rate
63.6%
40.0%
BTTS rate
30.9%
1.68
Goals for per game
0.75
78.6%
Scoring rate
60.7%
50.0%
BTTS rate
42.9%
55
History Matches
55
1.29
Goals Mean
0.84
1.14
Goals Std
0.83
72.7%
Scored 1+ rate
63.6%
36.4%
Scored 2+ rate
14.5%
14.5%
Scored 3+ rate
3.6%
1.68
Venue Goals Mean
0.75
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.85
Goals against per game
0.75
56.4%
Conceding rate
49.1%
1.04
Goals against per game
1.11
67.9%
Conceding rate
64.3%
55
History Matches
55
0.85
Conceded Mean
0.75
0.90
Conceded Std
0.90
23.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
20.0%
5.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
5.5%
1.04
Venue Conceded Mean
1.11
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
43.6%
Clean-sheet rate
50.9%
27.3%
Failed-to-score rate
36.4%
32.1%
Clean-sheet rate
35.7%
21.4%
Failed-to-score rate
39.3%
43.6%
Clean-sheet rate
50.9%
27.3%
Failed-to-score rate
36.4%
32.1%
Clean-sheet rate
35.7%
21.4%
Failed-to-score rate
39.3%
43.6%
Clean-sheet rate
50.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
55
History Matches
55
0.96
Result entropy
0.99
1.47
Goal Difference Std
1.15
4.03
Stability score
0.57
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
55
Eligible Matches
55
18
Lead Matches
8
83.3%
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
0.89
Lead Points Retention
0.79
11
Trailing Matches
11
45.5%
Non-loss rate
9.1%
9.1%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
55
Halftime Coverage Matches
55
0.56
First Half Goals For Mean
0.33
0.40
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.36
0.73
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.51
0.45
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.38
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
167.9
Rest days
182.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
29
Normal Rest History Matches
30
1.83
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.50
25
Long Rest History Matches
23
1.60
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.39
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
4
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.19
Portability PPG Std
0.12
0.37
Portability PPG Range
0.29
72.92
Portability Score
80.61
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
55
Clean History Matches
55
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO28.14
PPG0.24
GF0.45
GA0.11
PPG0.68
PPG-0.20
PPG-0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Failed-to-score rate-0.09
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Failed-to-score rate-0.18
History Matches0
Goals Mean0.45
Goals Std0.31
Scored 1+ rate9.1%
Scored 2+ rate21.8%
Scored 3+ rate10.9%
Venue Goals Mean0.93
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.63
History Matches0
Conceded Mean0.11
Conceded Std0.00
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Conceded 2+ rate3.6%
Conceded 3+ rate0.0%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.07
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.14
History Matches0
Result entropy-0.03
Goal Difference Std0.33
Stability score3.46
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.03
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.56
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches10
Lead Win Rate8.3%
Lead Points Retention0.10
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate36.4%
Trailing Win Rate9.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean0.24
First Half Goals Against Mean0.04
Second Half Goals For Mean0.22
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.07
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.07
Portability PPG Range0.08
Portability Score-7.69
Rest days-14.05
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.33
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.21
Current Team ELO28.14
Current Opponent ELO-28.14
Current ELO Difference56.28
Expected score0.08
History Matches0
Residual Mean0.03
Overperformance2.00
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.19

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Unión Molinense

L
Santa Cruz2–0Unión Molinense31 Oct · away
Pick: Unión Molinense 46% · missed
D
Unión Molinense1–1Bala Azul25 Oct · home
Pick: Unión Molinense 52% · missed
D
Águilas II1–1Unión Molinense4 Oct · away
Pick: Unión Molinense 41% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Atlético Pulpileño

W
Atlético Pulpileño3–2Cartagena LU II31 Oct · home
Pick: Atlético Pulpileño 39% · hit
L
Santa Cruz3–2Atlético Pulpileño24 Oct · away
Pick: Atlético Pulpileño 39% · missed
L
Atlético Pulpileño2–3Santomera4 Oct · home
Pick: Atlético Pulpileño 40% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Unión Molinense and Atlético Pulpileño meet in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 16:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Unión Molinense win 43.7%, draw 31.5%, Atlético Pulpileño win 24.8%. The pick is Unión Molinense win. Over 2.5 goals: 41.3%. Both teams to score: 44.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.