ScoreProb
Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 Spain Group 8 - 10 2026

Unionistas II vs Mirandés II

Unionistas II Home · Elo 1,462
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Mirandés II Away · Elo 1,501
Las Pistas del Helmantico, Salamanca Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Mirandés II win
Unionistas II win
33.5%
Draw
27.5%
Mirandés II winPick
39.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes48.5%
No51.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.544.8%
Under 2.555.2%

How much we know

Unionistas II history34 matches
Mirandés II history51 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (39.0%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Mirandés II are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Mirandés II are rated 39 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,501 against 1,462. On rating alone Mirandés II would be expected to take 56% of the points on offer.

  • Mirandés II score more

    1.03 goals a game over 34 matches for Unionistas II, against 1.27 over 51 for Mirandés II.

  • Mirandés II concede fewer

    Unionistas II concede 1.26 a game, Mirandés II 1.04.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    47% of Unionistas II matches, against 41% for Mirandés II. The model puts this match at 45% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Unionistas II
Mirandés II@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1462.0
ELO
1501.5
34
ELO · Matches
51
1462.0
Current Team ELO
1501.5
1501.5
Current Opponent ELO
1462.0
-39.46
Current ELO Difference
39.46
0.44
Expected score
0.56
34
History Matches
51
-0.05
Residual Mean
0.00
46.63
Overperformance
49.92
0.24
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.19
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
1.40
1.40
Goals for per game
2.00
0.40
Goals against per game
2.00
80.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.90
PPG
0.90
1.70
Goals for per game
1.30
0.80
Goals against per game
1.70
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
1.35
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.19
0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
0.75
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.90
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.64
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.20
Overall performance9 signals
90
34
Matches
51
0.97
PPG
1.41
20.6%
Win rate
37.3%
35.3%
Draw rate
29.4%
44.1%
Loss rate
33.3%
58.8%
Over 1.5 rate
64.7%
47.1%
Over 2.5 rate
41.2%
29.4%
Over 3.5 rate
19.6%
1.39
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.37
Venue performance10 signals
100
17
Matches
26
1.06
PPG
1.38
23.5%
Win rate
38.5%
35.3%
Draw rate
23.1%
41.2%
Loss rate
38.5%
58.8%
Over 1.5 rate
65.4%
52.9%
Over 2.5 rate
38.5%
29.4%
Over 3.5 rate
15.4%
1.14
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.29
17
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.03
Goals for per game
1.27
58.8%
Scoring rate
66.7%
47.1%
BTTS rate
51.0%
1.18
Goals for per game
1.15
64.7%
Scoring rate
69.2%
58.8%
BTTS rate
57.7%
34
History Matches
51
1.03
Goals Mean
1.27
1.18
Goals Std
1.21
58.8%
Scored 1+ rate
66.7%
23.5%
Scored 2+ rate
37.3%
14.7%
Scored 3+ rate
17.6%
1.18
Venue Goals Mean
1.15
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.26
Goals against per game
1.04
70.6%
Conceding rate
74.5%
1.18
Goals against per game
1.12
76.5%
Conceding rate
84.6%
34
History Matches
51
1.26
Conceded Mean
1.04
1.01
Conceded Std
0.84
44.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
21.6%
11.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
7.8%
1.18
Venue Conceded Mean
1.12
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
29.4%
Clean-sheet rate
25.5%
41.2%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
23.5%
Clean-sheet rate
15.4%
35.3%
Failed-to-score rate
30.8%
29.4%
Clean-sheet rate
25.5%
41.2%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
23.5%
Clean-sheet rate
15.4%
35.3%
Failed-to-score rate
30.8%
29.4%
Clean-sheet rate
25.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
34
History Matches
51
0.96
Result entropy
1.00
1.39
Goal Difference Std
1.37
4.06
Stability score
0.42
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
32
Eligible Matches
51
11
Lead Matches
12
45.5%
Lead Win Rate
66.7%
0.58
Lead Points Retention
0.75
7
Trailing Matches
13
14.3%
Non-loss rate
23.1%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
23.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
32
Halftime Coverage Matches
51
0.63
First Half Goals For Mean
0.53
0.44
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.49
0.34
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.75
0.84
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.55
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
77.27
Rest days
182.2
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
17
Normal Rest History Matches
25
0.94
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.44
16
Long Rest History Matches
25
1.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.44
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
3
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
—
Portability PPG Std
0.15
—
Portability PPG Range
0.29
—
Portability Score
77.42
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
34
Clean History Matches
51
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-39.46
PPG-0.44
GF-0.25
GA0.23
PPG-0.33
PPG1.00
PPG1.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-17
Clean-sheet rate3.9%
Failed-to-score rate7.8%
History Matches-9
Clean-sheet rate8.1%
Failed-to-score rate4.5%
History Matches-17
Goals Mean-0.25
Goals Std-0.03
Scored 1+ rate-0.08
Scored 2+ rate-0.14
Scored 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Goals Mean0.02
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std0.16
History Matches-17
Conceded Mean0.23
Conceded Std0.17
Clean-sheet rate3.9%
Conceded 2+ rate22.5%
Conceded 3+ rate3.9%
Venue Conceded Mean0.06
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.15
History Matches-17
Result entropy-0.04
Goal Difference Std0.03
Stability score3.64
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.12
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.44
Eligible Matches-19
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate-0.21
Lead Points Retention-0.17
Trailing Matches-6
Non-loss rate-0.09
Trailing Win Rate-0.23
Halftime Coverage Matches-19
First Half Goals For Mean0.10
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.05
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.40
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.29
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Rest days-104.9
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-8
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.50
Long Rest History Matches-9
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.44
Current Team ELO-39.46
Current Opponent ELO39.46
Current ELO Difference-78.92
Expected score-0.11
History Matches-17
Residual Mean-0.05
Overperformance-3.29
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.43

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Unionistas II

L
La Virgen del Camino2–1Unionistas II31 Oct · away
Pick: La Virgen del Camino 41% · hit
L
Unionistas II0–1Guijuelo25 Oct · home
Pick: Guijuelo 48% · hit
W
Atlético Mansillés1–2Unionistas II17 Oct · away
Pick: Atlético Mansillés 46% · missed
L
Cristo Atlético3–0Unionistas II4 Oct · away
Pick: Cristo Atlético 56% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Mirandés II

L
Mirandés II0–2Almazán1 Nov · home
Pick: Mirandés II 40% · missed
D
La Virgen del Camino0–0Mirandés II24 Oct · away
Pick: Mirandés II 40% · missed
D
Mirandés II0–0UD Santa Marta18 Oct · home
Pick: UD Santa Marta 38% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Unionistas II and Mirandés II meet in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. The match is played at Las Pistas del Helmantico, Salamanca. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Unionistas II win 33.5%, draw 27.5%, Mirandés II win 39.0%. The pick is Mirandés II win. Over 2.5 goals: 44.8%. Both teams to score: 48.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.