Universidad de Chile vs Antofagasta
Match result probability Model pick: Universidad de Chile win
Universidad de Chile winPick
50.0%
Draw
23.3%
Antofagasta win
26.7%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes56.1%
No43.9%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.556.3%
Under 2.543.7%
How much we know
Universidad de Chile history73 matches
Antofagasta history59 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Universidad de Chile
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 13 h ahead30 Oct · 08:38 UTC
- Re-published 13 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 2 Nov · 19:23 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 21:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre5 Nov · 22:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (50.0%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.
Why Universidad de Chile are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Universidad de Chile are rated 33 Elo points higher
Elo 1,589 against 1,556. On rating alone Universidad de Chile would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.
-
Scoring rates are level
1.73 goals a game over 73 matches for Universidad de Chile, against 1.69 over 59 for Antofagasta.
-
Defences are close
Universidad de Chile concede 1.03 a game, Antofagasta 1.14.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
58% of Universidad de Chile matches, against 56% for Antofagasta. The model puts this match at 56% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Antofagasta@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1589.0
ELO
1556.4
73
ELO · Matches
59
1589.0
Current Team ELO
1556.4
1556.4
Current Opponent ELO
1589.0
32.64
Current ELO Difference
-32.64
0.55
Expected score
0.45
73
History Matches
59
0.05
Residual Mean
0.05
53.96
Overperformance
53.99
0.14
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.18
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
2.20
1.80
Goals for per game
2.40
0.80
Goals against per game
0.60
80.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
2.20
PPG
2.30
1.90
Goals for per game
2.40
1.10
Goals against per game
1.00
70.0%
Win rate
70.0%
1.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.40
0.94
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.56
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
0.94
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.00
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
1.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.43
Overall performance9 signals 90
73
Matches
59
1.75
PPG
1.66
52.1%
Win rate
45.8%
19.2%
Draw rate
28.8%
28.8%
Loss rate
25.4%
69.9%
Over 1.5 rate
78.0%
57.5%
Over 2.5 rate
55.9%
34.2%
Over 3.5 rate
32.2%
1.80
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.80
Venue performance10 signals 100
33
Matches
27
2.09
PPG
1.22
63.6%
Win rate
29.6%
18.2%
Draw rate
33.3%
18.2%
Loss rate
37.0%
81.8%
Over 1.5 rate
77.8%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
44.4%
39.4%
Over 3.5 rate
25.9%
1.92
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.56
33
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
1.73
Goals for per game
1.69
75.3%
Scoring rate
74.6%
47.9%
BTTS rate
52.5%
2.12
Goals for per game
1.33
87.9%
Scoring rate
66.7%
51.5%
BTTS rate
48.1%
2.17
Goals for per game
2.00
83.3%
Scoring rate
83.3%
50.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
73
History Matches
59
1.73
Goals Mean
1.69
1.45
Goals Std
1.42
75.3%
Scored 1+ rate
74.6%
52.1%
Scored 2+ rate
50.8%
27.4%
Scored 3+ rate
27.1%
2.12
Venue Goals Mean
1.33
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.03
Goals against per game
1.14
67.1%
Conceding rate
67.8%
0.97
Goals against per game
1.41
60.6%
Conceding rate
74.1%
1.17
Goals against per game
0.83
66.7%
Conceding rate
50.0%
73
History Matches
59
1.03
Conceded Mean
1.14
0.91
Conceded Std
1.03
28.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
32.2%
6.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
11.9%
0.97
Venue Conceded Mean
1.41
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
32.9%
Clean-sheet rate
32.2%
24.7%
Failed-to-score rate
25.4%
39.4%
Clean-sheet rate
25.9%
12.1%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
32.9%
Clean-sheet rate
32.2%
24.7%
Failed-to-score rate
25.4%
39.4%
Clean-sheet rate
25.9%
12.1%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
32.9%
Clean-sheet rate
32.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
73
History Matches
59
0.92
Result entropy
0.97
1.80
Goal Difference Std
1.80
7.61
Stability score
3.11
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
73
Eligible Matches
59
27
Lead Matches
24
88.9%
Lead Win Rate
83.3%
0.91
Lead Points Retention
0.88
14
Trailing Matches
15
50.0%
Non-loss rate
40.0%
14.3%
Trailing Win Rate
13.3%
Goal timing5 signals 50
73
Halftime Coverage Matches
59
0.74
First Half Goals For Mean
0.80
0.47
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.49
0.99
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.90
0.56
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.64
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
74.13
Rest days
74.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
6
Short Rest History Matches
0
1.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
39
Normal Rest History Matches
36
1.92
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.78
27
Long Rest History Matches
22
1.56
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.41
Competition & season17 signals 170
6
Matches
6
2.17
PPG
2.67
66.7%
Win rate
83.3%
16.7%
Draw rate
16.7%
16.7%
Loss rate
0.0%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.29
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.69
6
Current Competition Matches
6
2.17
Current Competition PPG
2.67
1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.17
10
Competition Season Count
5
7
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.29
Portability PPG Std
0.46
0.92
Portability PPG Range
1.13
62.95
Portability Score
52.08
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
73
Clean History Matches
59
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO32.64
PPG0.09
GF0.03
GA-0.11
PPG-0.50
PPG0.87
PPG0.20
PPG-0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches14
Clean-sheet rate0.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.01
History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate13.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.21
History Matches14
Goals Mean0.03
Goals Std0.03
Scored 1+ rate0.8%
Scored 2+ rate1.2%
Scored 3+ rate0.3%
Venue Goals Mean0.79
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.62
History Matches14
Conceded Mean-0.11
Conceded Std-0.13
Clean-sheet rate0.7%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.03
Conceded 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Conceded Mean-0.44
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.06
History Matches14
Result entropy-0.05
Goal Difference Std0.00
Stability score4.50
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.35
Eligible Matches14
Lead Matches3
Lead Win Rate5.6%
Lead Points Retention0.04
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate10.0%
Trailing Win Rate1.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches14
First Half Goals For Mean-0.06
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.03
Second Half Goals For Mean0.09
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.08
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.17
Competition Season Count5
Eligible Competition Season Count3
Portability PPG Std-0.17
Portability PPG Range-0.21
Portability Score10.87
Rest days0.08
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches6
Normal Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.15
Long Rest History Matches5
Long Rest Points Per Match0.15
Current Team ELO32.64
Current Opponent ELO-32.64
Current ELO Difference65.28
Expected score0.09
History Matches14
Residual Mean0.00
Overperformance-0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.04
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Universidad de Chile
W
Universidad de Chile4–1Everton de Vina26 Oct · home
Pick: Universidad de Chile 56% · hit W
Universidad de Chile6–0Nublense12 Oct · home
Pick: Universidad de Chile 54% · hit L
Antofagasta2–0Universidad de Chile7 Oct · away
Pick: Universidad de Chile 37% · missed L
Universidad de Concepcion2–1Universidad de Chile30 Aug · away
Pick: Universidad de Chile 53% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
Antofagasta
W
Antofagasta4–0Curico Unido25 Oct · home
Pick: Antofagasta 59% · hit D
Deportes Santa Cruz0–0Antofagasta18 Oct · away
Pick: Antofagasta 47% · missed W
Antofagasta2–0Universidad de Chile7 Oct · home
Pick: Universidad de Chile 37% · missed W
Antofagasta2–0Rangers de Talca4 Oct · home
Pick: Antofagasta 63% · hit W
Deportes Copiapo0–4Antofagasta30 Aug · away
Pick: Antofagasta 42% · hit About this match
Universidad de Chile and Antofagasta meet in Copa Chile on Thursday 5 November 2026, kickoff 22:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC: Universidad de Chile win 50.0%, draw 23.3%, Antofagasta win 26.7%. The pick is Universidad de Chile win. Over 2.5 goals: 56.3%. Both teams to score: 56.1%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.