ScoreProb
First League Russia Round 17 2026

Ural vs Volga Ulyanovsk

Ural Home · Elo 1,559
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Volga Ulyanovsk Away · Elo 1,473
Yekaterinburg Arena Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Ural win
Ural winPick
59.9%
Draw
18.9%
Volga Ulyanovsk win
21.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes48.4%
No51.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.553.9%
Under 2.546.1%

How much we know

Ural history76 matches
Volga Ulyanovsk history70 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 23 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 08:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (59.9%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Ural are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Ural are rated 86 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,559 against 1,473. On rating alone Ural would be expected to take 62% of the points on offer.

  • Ural score more

    1.45 goals a game over 76 matches for Ural, against 1.27 over 70 for Volga Ulyanovsk.

  • Ural concede fewer

    Ural concede 1.12 a game, Volga Ulyanovsk 1.30.

  • Volga Ulyanovsk games more often go over 2.5 goals

    47% of Ural matches, against 56% for Volga Ulyanovsk. The model puts this match at 54% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Ural
Volga Ulyanovsk
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1558.6
ELO
1472.6
76
ELO · Matches
70
1558.6
Current Team ELO
1472.6
1472.6
Current Opponent ELO
1558.6
85.98
Current ELO Difference
-85.98
0.62
Expected score
0.38
76
History Matches
70
0.04
Residual Mean
-0.02
53.53
Overperformance
48.45
0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.19
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.20
PPG
1.20
1.80
Goals for per game
1.00
0.20
Goals against per game
1.40
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
0.70
1.30
Goals for per game
0.80
0.60
Goals against per game
1.70
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.80
1.27
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.75
0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
0.66
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.00
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
1.79
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.45
Overall performance9 signals
90
76
Matches
70
1.64
PPG
1.31
47.4%
Win rate
34.3%
22.4%
Draw rate
28.6%
30.3%
Loss rate
37.1%
71.1%
Over 1.5 rate
72.9%
47.4%
Over 2.5 rate
55.7%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
25.7%
1.75
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.50
Venue performance10 signals
100
41
Matches
35
2.02
PPG
1.31
61.0%
Win rate
31.4%
19.5%
Draw rate
37.1%
19.5%
Loss rate
31.4%
73.2%
Over 1.5 rate
74.3%
48.8%
Over 2.5 rate
54.3%
26.8%
Over 3.5 rate
28.6%
1.58
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.51
41
History Matches
35
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.45
Goals for per game
1.27
71.1%
Scoring rate
71.4%
46.1%
BTTS rate
57.1%
1.78
Goals for per game
1.26
78.0%
Scoring rate
68.6%
46.3%
BTTS rate
60.0%
1.71
Goals for per game
1.00
71.4%
Scoring rate
71.4%
14.3%
BTTS rate
57.1%
76
History Matches
70
1.45
Goals Mean
1.27
1.21
Goals Std
1.11
71.1%
Scored 1+ rate
71.4%
50.0%
Scored 2+ rate
38.6%
17.1%
Scored 3+ rate
12.9%
1.78
Venue Goals Mean
1.26
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.12
Goals against per game
1.30
63.2%
Conceding rate
75.7%
0.90
Goals against per game
1.26
56.1%
Conceding rate
80.0%
0.29
Goals against per game
1.71
28.6%
Conceding rate
85.7%
76
History Matches
70
1.12
Conceded Mean
1.30
1.25
Conceded Std
1.03
26.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
40.0%
13.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
10.0%
0.90
Venue Conceded Mean
1.26
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
36.8%
Clean-sheet rate
24.3%
28.9%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
43.9%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
22.0%
Failed-to-score rate
31.4%
71.4%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
36.8%
Clean-sheet rate
24.3%
28.9%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
43.9%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
22.0%
Failed-to-score rate
31.4%
36.8%
Clean-sheet rate
24.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
76
History Matches
70
0.96
Result entropy
0.99
1.75
Goal Difference Std
1.50
4.37
Stability score
0.53
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
73
Eligible Matches
70
26
Lead Matches
18
88.5%
Lead Win Rate
88.9%
0.91
Lead Points Retention
0.93
20
Trailing Matches
24
30.0%
Non-loss rate
29.2%
15.0%
Trailing Win Rate
8.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
73
Halftime Coverage Matches
70
0.62
First Half Goals For Mean
0.53
0.53
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.66
0.78
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.74
0.58
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.64
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.96
Rest days
77.81
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
2
1.75
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.50
46
Normal Rest History Matches
44
1.89
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.36
25
Long Rest History Matches
23
1.20
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.22
Competition & season17 signals
170
7
Matches
7
2.00
PPG
0.86
57.1%
Win rate
28.6%
28.6%
Draw rate
0.0%
14.3%
Loss rate
71.4%
71.4%
Over 1.5 rate
85.7%
42.9%
Over 2.5 rate
57.1%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
28.6%
1.59
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.48
7
Current Competition Matches
7
2.00
Current Competition PPG
0.86
1.43
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.71
9
Competition Season Count
5
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.29
Portability PPG Std
0.39
0.86
Portability PPG Range
1.03
63.64
Portability Score
56.40
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
76
Clean History Matches
70
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO85.98
PPG0.33
GF0.18
GA-0.18
PPG1.14
PPG0.71
PPG1.00
PPG0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate12.6%
Failed-to-score rate0.4%
History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate23.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.09
History Matches6
Goals Mean0.18
Goals Std0.10
Scored 1+ rate0.00
Scored 2+ rate11.4%
Scored 3+ rate4.2%
Venue Goals Mean0.52
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std0.52
History Matches6
Conceded Mean-0.18
Conceded Std0.21
Clean-sheet rate12.6%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.14
Conceded 3+ rate3.2%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.35
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.34
History Matches6
Result entropy-0.04
Goal Difference Std0.25
Stability score3.84
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.26
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.35
Eligible Matches3
Lead Matches8
Lead Win Rate0.00
Lead Points Retention-0.02
Trailing Matches-4
Non-loss rate0.8%
Trailing Win Rate6.7%
Halftime Coverage Matches3
First Half Goals For Mean0.09
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.12
Second Half Goals For Mean0.04
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.07
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.14
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean2.14
Competition Season Count4
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.10
Portability PPG Range-0.17
Portability Score7.24
Rest days0.15
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Short Rest Points Per Match1.25
Normal Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.53
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.02
Current Team ELO85.98
Current Opponent ELO-85.98
Current ELO Difference172.0
Expected score0.24
History Matches6
Residual Mean0.06
Overperformance5.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.23

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Ural

W
FC Sochi0–2Ural1 Nov · away
Pick: Ural 45% · hit
D
Arsenal Tula2–2Ural29 Aug · away
Pick: Ural 51% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Volga Ulyanovsk

W
Veles1–2Volga Ulyanovsk4 Oct · away
Pick: Veles 50% · missed
D
Nizhny Novgorod2–2Volga Ulyanovsk30 Aug · away
Pick: Nizhny Novgorod 59% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Ural and Volga Ulyanovsk meet in First League on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 08:30 UTC. The match is played at Yekaterinburg Arena. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Ural win 59.9%, draw 18.9%, Volga Ulyanovsk win 21.2%. The pick is Ural win. Over 2.5 goals: 53.9%. Both teams to score: 48.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.