ScoreProb
Copa Do Brasil Brazil Semi-finals 2026

Vasco DA Gama vs Palmeiras

Vasco DA Gama Home · Elo 1,525
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Palmeiras Away · Elo 1,700
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Palmeiras win
Vasco DA Gama win
22.5%
Draw
25.8%
Palmeiras winPick
51.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes49.7%
No50.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.550.0%
Under 2.550.0%

How much we know

Vasco DA Gama history93 matches
Palmeiras history95 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 11 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 20:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (51.7%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Palmeiras are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Palmeiras are rated 175 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,700 against 1,525. On rating alone Palmeiras would be expected to take 73% of the points on offer.

  • Palmeiras score more

    1.23 goals a game over 93 matches for Vasco DA Gama, against 1.82 over 95 for Palmeiras.

  • Palmeiras concede fewer

    Vasco DA Gama concede 1.29 a game, Palmeiras 0.80.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    49% of Vasco DA Gama matches, against 48% for Palmeiras. The model puts this match at 50% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Vasco DA Gama
Palmeiras@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1525.3
ELO
1699.9
93
ELO · Matches
95
1525.3
Current Team ELO
1699.9
1699.9
Current Opponent ELO
1525.3
-174.6
Current ELO Difference
174.6
0.27
Expected score
0.73
93
History Matches
95
0.02
Residual Mean
0.11
51.42
Overperformance
59.04
0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.08
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
1.60
0.80
Goals for per game
1.60
1.60
Goals against per game
1.00
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
1.70
0.80
Goals for per game
2.10
1.20
Goals against per game
1.10
20.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.10
0.98
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.30
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
1.33
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.14
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.50
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.79
Overall performance9 signals
90
93
Matches
95
1.22
PPG
2.05
31.2%
Win rate
61.1%
28.0%
Draw rate
22.1%
40.9%
Loss rate
16.8%
73.1%
Over 1.5 rate
68.4%
49.5%
Over 2.5 rate
48.4%
22.6%
Over 3.5 rate
31.6%
1.84
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.61
Venue performance10 signals
100
47
Matches
43
1.45
PPG
2.02
38.3%
Win rate
60.5%
29.8%
Draw rate
20.9%
31.9%
Loss rate
18.6%
70.2%
Over 1.5 rate
74.4%
46.8%
Over 2.5 rate
55.8%
19.1%
Over 3.5 rate
39.5%
1.51
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.46
47
History Matches
43
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.23
Goals for per game
1.82
66.7%
Scoring rate
80.0%
47.3%
BTTS rate
47.4%
1.32
Goals for per game
1.86
70.2%
Scoring rate
86.0%
48.9%
BTTS rate
55.8%
1.75
Goals for per game
3.00
75.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
66.7%
93
History Matches
95
1.23
Goals Mean
1.82
1.23
Goals Std
1.42
66.7%
Scored 1+ rate
80.0%
32.3%
Scored 2+ rate
52.6%
17.2%
Scored 3+ rate
30.5%
1.32
Venue Goals Mean
1.86
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.29
Goals against per game
0.80
71.0%
Conceding rate
57.9%
1.11
Goals against per game
1.02
68.1%
Conceding rate
65.1%
0.75
Goals against per game
1.33
50.0%
Conceding rate
66.7%
93
History Matches
95
1.29
Conceded Mean
0.80
1.17
Conceded Std
0.84
36.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
16.8%
15.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
5.3%
1.11
Venue Conceded Mean
1.02
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
29.0%
Clean-sheet rate
42.1%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
31.9%
Clean-sheet rate
34.9%
29.8%
Failed-to-score rate
14.0%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
29.0%
Clean-sheet rate
42.1%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
31.9%
Clean-sheet rate
34.9%
29.8%
Failed-to-score rate
14.0%
29.0%
Clean-sheet rate
42.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
93
History Matches
95
0.99
Result entropy
0.85
1.84
Goal Difference Std
1.61
1.20
Stability score
14.90
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
93
Eligible Matches
95
26
Lead Matches
38
73.1%
Lead Win Rate
94.7%
0.78
Lead Points Retention
0.96
27
Trailing Matches
12
37.0%
Non-loss rate
58.3%
18.5%
Trailing Win Rate
25.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
93
Halftime Coverage Matches
95
0.53
First Half Goals For Mean
0.86
0.54
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.37
0.70
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.96
0.75
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.43
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
17
Short Rest History Matches
15
1.18
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.87
57
Normal Rest History Matches
66
1.19
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.06
18
Long Rest History Matches
13
1.22
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.15
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
3
2.00
PPG
2.00
50.0%
Win rate
66.7%
50.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
33.3%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
66.7%
1.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.89
4
Current Competition Matches
3
2.00
Current Competition PPG
2.00
1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.67
8
Competition Season Count
9
8
Eligible Competition Season Count
8
0.33
Portability PPG Std
0.41
1.11
Portability PPG Range
1.47
60.16
Portability Score
54.75
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
93
Clean History Matches
95
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-174.6
PPG-0.84
GF-0.60
GA0.49
PPG0.00
PPG-0.58
PPG-0.60
PPG-0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate-0.13
Failed-to-score rate13.3%
History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Failed-to-score rate15.8%
History Matches-2
Goals Mean-0.60
Goals Std-0.19
Scored 1+ rate-0.13
Scored 2+ rate-0.20
Scored 3+ rate-0.13
Venue Goals Mean-0.54
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.32
History Matches-2
Conceded Mean0.49
Conceded Std0.33
Clean-sheet rate-0.13
Conceded 2+ rate19.7%
Conceded 3+ rate9.8%
Venue Conceded Mean0.08
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.19
History Matches-2
Result entropy0.14
Goal Difference Std0.23
Stability score-13.70
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.29
Eligible Matches-2
Lead Matches-12
Lead Win Rate-0.22
Lead Points Retention-0.18
Trailing Matches15
Non-loss rate-0.21
Trailing Win Rate-0.06
Halftime Coverage Matches-2
First Half Goals For Mean-0.34
First Half Goals Against Mean0.17
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.26
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.32
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.67
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.08
Portability PPG Range-0.36
Portability Score5.41
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.69
Normal Rest History Matches-9
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.87
Long Rest History Matches5
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.93
Current Team ELO-174.6
Current Opponent ELO174.6
Current ELO Difference-349.3
Expected score-0.46
History Matches-2
Residual Mean-0.09
Overperformance-7.62
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.14

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Vasco DA Gama

L
Palmeiras1–0Vasco DA Gama1 Nov · away
Pick: Palmeiras 50% · hit
L
Vasco DA Gama1–4Flamengo29 Oct · home
Pick: Flamengo 50% · hit
W
Vasco DA Gama3–2Corinthians24 Oct · home
Pick: Vasco DA Gama 35% · hit
L
Vasco DA Gama1–3Boca Juniors21 Oct · home
Pick: Vasco DA Gama 39% · missed
L
Sao Paulo1–0Vasco DA Gama18 Oct · away
Pick: Sao Paulo 48% · hit

Palmeiras

W
Palmeiras1–0Vasco DA Gama1 Nov · home
Pick: Palmeiras 50% · hit
D
Santos0–0Palmeiras28 Oct · away
Pick: Palmeiras 47% · missed
W
Palmeiras2–0RB Bragantino24 Oct · home
Pick: Palmeiras 58% · hit
W
Atletico Paranaense0–2Palmeiras17 Oct · away
Pick: Palmeiras 39% · hit
W
Fluminense1–2Palmeiras15 Oct · away
Pick: Palmeiras 42% · hit

About this match

Vasco DA Gama and Palmeiras meet in Copa Do Brasil on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 20:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Vasco DA Gama win 22.5%, draw 25.8%, Palmeiras win 51.7%. The pick is Palmeiras win. Over 2.5 goals: 50.0%. Both teams to score: 49.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.