ScoreProb
2. Bundesliga Germany Round 11 2026

VfL Bochum vs Karlsruher SC

VfL Bochum Home · Elo 1,530
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Karlsruher SC Away · Elo 1,495
Vonovia Ruhrstadion, Bochum Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: VfL Bochum win
VfL Bochum winPick
47.6%
Draw
23.3%
Karlsruher SC win
29.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes53.5%
No46.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.556.3%
Under 2.543.7%

How much we know

VfL Bochum history65 matches
Karlsruher SC history61 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 12:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (47.6%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why VfL Bochum are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • VfL Bochum are rated 35 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,530 against 1,495. On rating alone VfL Bochum would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Karlsruher SC score more

    1.22 goals a game over 65 matches for VfL Bochum, against 1.52 over 61 for Karlsruher SC.

  • VfL Bochum concede fewer

    VfL Bochum concede 1.37 a game, Karlsruher SC 1.79.

  • Karlsruher SC games more often go over 2.5 goals

    43% of VfL Bochum matches, against 74% for Karlsruher SC. The model puts this match at 56% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
VfL Bochum
Karlsruher SC
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1529.7
ELO
1494.9
65
ELO · Matches
61
1529.7
Current Team ELO
1494.9
1494.9
Current Opponent ELO
1529.7
34.76
Current ELO Difference
-34.76
0.55
Expected score
0.45
65
History Matches
61
0.03
Residual Mean
0.00
51.97
Overperformance
49.77
0.22
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.05
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.40
0.60
Goals for per game
1.00
0.80
Goals against per game
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
2.00
PPG
1.20
1.20
Goals for per game
1.50
0.80
Goals against per game
1.90
60.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
0.98
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.12
0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.90
0.75
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.14
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.11
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.28
Overall performance9 signals
90
65
Matches
61
1.26
PPG
1.31
32.3%
Win rate
34.4%
29.2%
Draw rate
27.9%
38.5%
Loss rate
37.7%
76.9%
Over 1.5 rate
85.2%
43.1%
Over 2.5 rate
73.8%
26.2%
Over 3.5 rate
45.9%
1.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.97
Venue performance10 signals
100
33
Matches
30
1.24
PPG
0.90
33.3%
Win rate
20.0%
24.2%
Draw rate
30.0%
42.4%
Loss rate
50.0%
72.7%
Over 1.5 rate
83.3%
45.5%
Over 2.5 rate
76.7%
30.3%
Over 3.5 rate
46.7%
1.59
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.21
33
History Matches
30
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.22
Goals for per game
1.52
75.4%
Scoring rate
75.4%
56.9%
BTTS rate
63.9%
1.21
Goals for per game
1.23
69.7%
Scoring rate
60.0%
51.5%
BTTS rate
53.3%
0.50
Goals for per game
1.00
50.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
65
History Matches
61
1.22
Goals Mean
1.52
0.97
Goals Std
1.22
75.4%
Scored 1+ rate
75.4%
33.8%
Scored 2+ rate
49.2%
10.8%
Scored 3+ rate
19.7%
1.21
Venue Goals Mean
1.23
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.37
Goals against per game
1.79
73.8%
Conceding rate
82.0%
1.42
Goals against per game
2.07
72.7%
Conceding rate
83.3%
0.50
Goals against per game
0.50
50.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
65
History Matches
61
1.37
Conceded Mean
1.79
1.17
Conceded Std
1.36
40.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
50.8%
15.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
32.8%
1.42
Venue Conceded Mean
2.07
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
26.2%
Clean-sheet rate
18.0%
24.6%
Failed-to-score rate
24.6%
27.3%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
30.3%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
26.2%
Clean-sheet rate
18.0%
24.6%
Failed-to-score rate
24.6%
27.3%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
30.3%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
26.2%
Clean-sheet rate
18.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
65
History Matches
61
0.99
Result entropy
0.99
1.50
Goal Difference Std
1.97
0.60
Stability score
0.70
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
65
Eligible Matches
61
19
Lead Matches
14
84.2%
Lead Win Rate
57.1%
0.89
Lead Points Retention
0.71
23
Trailing Matches
22
30.4%
Non-loss rate
31.8%
4.3%
Trailing Win Rate
9.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
65
Halftime Coverage Matches
61
0.62
First Half Goals For Mean
0.56
0.63
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.75
0.60
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.97
0.74
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.03
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.06
Rest days
78.85
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
36
Normal Rest History Matches
31
1.17
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.48
27
Long Rest History Matches
29
1.37
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.14
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
1.50
PPG
2.00
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.50
2
Current Competition Matches
2
1.50
Current Competition PPG
2.00
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.50
7
Competition Season Count
7
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.55
Portability PPG Std
0.42
1.67
Portability PPG Range
1.03
47.53
Portability Score
54.64
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
65
Clean History Matches
61
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO34.76
PPG-0.05
GF-0.31
GA-0.42
PPG-0.50
PPG0.34
PPG0.00
PPG0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate8.1%
Failed-to-score rate0.0%
History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate10.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.10
History Matches4
Goals Mean-0.31
Goals Std-0.25
Scored 1+ rate0.00
Scored 2+ rate-0.15
Scored 3+ rate-0.09
Venue Goals Mean-0.02
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.14
History Matches4
Conceded Mean-0.42
Conceded Std-0.19
Clean-sheet rate8.1%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.11
Conceded 3+ rate-0.17
Venue Conceded Mean-0.64
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.39
History Matches4
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std-0.47
Stability score-0.10
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.17
Eligible Matches4
Lead Matches5
Lead Win Rate27.1%
Lead Points Retention0.18
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate-0.01
Trailing Win Rate-0.05
Halftime Coverage Matches4
First Half Goals For Mean0.06
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.12
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.37
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.29
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.50
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.14
Portability PPG Range0.64
Portability Score-7.10
Rest days-1.79
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches5
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.32
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.23
Current Team ELO34.76
Current Opponent ELO-34.76
Current ELO Difference69.52
Expected score0.10
History Matches4
Residual Mean0.03
Overperformance2.20
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.17

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

VfL Bochum

W
Energie Cottbus1–2VfL Bochum30 Oct · away
Pick: Energie Cottbus 40% · missed
W
VfL Bochum2–0FSV Mainz 0527 Oct · home
Pick: FSV Mainz 05 49% · missed
D
VfL Bochum1–1VfL Wolfsburg23 Oct · home
Pick: VfL Bochum 39% · missed
L
1. FC Kaiserslautern2–0VfL Bochum17 Oct · away
Pick: 1. FC Kaiserslautern 41% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Karlsruher SC

W
Karlsruher SC2–11. FC Heidenheim31 Oct · home
Pick: Karlsruher SC 53% · hit
L
Borussia Mönchengladbach2–0Karlsruher SC27 Oct · away
Pick: Borussia Mönchengladbach 64% · hit
L
1. FC Magdeburg6–1Karlsruher SC24 Oct · away
Pick: 1. FC Magdeburg 41% · hit
W
Karlsruher SC4–0SV Darmstadt 9818 Oct · home
Pick: Karlsruher SC 46% · hit
L
Karlsruher SC2–5VfL Wolfsburg29 Aug · home
Pick: VfL Wolfsburg 39% · hit

About this match

VfL Bochum and Karlsruher SC meet in 2. Bundesliga on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 12:30 UTC. The match is played at Vonovia Ruhrstadion, Bochum. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: VfL Bochum win 47.6%, draw 23.3%, Karlsruher SC win 29.1%. The pick is VfL Bochum win. Over 2.5 goals: 56.3%. Both teams to score: 53.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.