ScoreProb
Persha Liga Ukraine Round 15 2026

Viktoriya Mykolaivka vs Ahrobiznes Volochysk

Viktoriya Mykolaivka Home · Elo 1,542
Mon 9 Nov
UTC
Not started
Ahrobiznes Volochysk Away · Elo 1,535
Yuvileiny Stadium, Sumy Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 3 Nov, 08:36 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Viktoriya Mykolaivka win
Viktoriya Mykolaivka winPick
50.2%
Draw
24.5%
Ahrobiznes Volochysk win
25.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes44.5%
No55.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.546.3%
Under 2.553.7%

How much we know

Viktoriya Mykolaivka history48 matches
Ahrobiznes Volochysk history49 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 0 h ahead
    3 Nov · 08:36 UTC
  2. Re-published 4 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 08:08 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    9 Nov · 09:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (50.2%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Viktoriya Mykolaivka are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,542 against 1,535. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.23 goals a game over 48 matches for Viktoriya Mykolaivka, against 1.18 over 49 for Ahrobiznes Volochysk.

  • Defences are close

    Viktoriya Mykolaivka concede 1.02 a game, Ahrobiznes Volochysk 1.10.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    44% of Viktoriya Mykolaivka matches, against 43% for Ahrobiznes Volochysk. The model puts this match at 46% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1542.3
ELO
1535.3
48
ELO · Matches
49
1542.3
Current Team ELO
1535.3
1535.3
Current Opponent ELO
1542.3
6.98
Current ELO Difference
-6.98
0.51
Expected score
0.49
48
History Matches
49
0.04
Residual Mean
0.03
52.84
Overperformance
52.11
0.15
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.07
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
3.00
PPG
2.00
1.80
Goals for per game
1.60
0.40
Goals against per game
0.80
100.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
1.60
1.20
Goals for per game
1.30
0.90
Goals against per game
1.00
50.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
0.98
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.19
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.18
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.27
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.85
Overall performance9 signals
90
48
Matches
49
1.48
PPG
1.55
41.7%
Win rate
44.9%
22.9%
Draw rate
20.4%
35.4%
Loss rate
34.7%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
63.3%
43.8%
Over 2.5 rate
42.9%
14.6%
Over 3.5 rate
20.4%
1.54
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.95
Venue performance10 signals
100
23
Matches
26
1.61
PPG
1.27
47.8%
Win rate
34.6%
17.4%
Draw rate
23.1%
34.8%
Loss rate
42.3%
65.2%
Over 1.5 rate
65.4%
47.8%
Over 2.5 rate
46.2%
17.4%
Over 3.5 rate
30.8%
1.66
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.15
23
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.23
Goals for per game
1.18
77.1%
Scoring rate
65.3%
43.8%
BTTS rate
30.6%
1.39
Goals for per game
1.23
78.3%
Scoring rate
57.7%
34.8%
BTTS rate
34.6%
1.50
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
25.0%
BTTS rate
25.0%
48
History Matches
49
1.23
Goals Mean
1.18
0.98
Goals Std
1.24
77.1%
Scored 1+ rate
65.3%
31.3%
Scored 2+ rate
32.7%
12.5%
Scored 3+ rate
12.2%
1.39
Venue Goals Mean
1.23
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.02
Goals against per game
1.10
60.4%
Conceding rate
51.0%
0.87
Goals against per game
1.31
52.2%
Conceding rate
57.7%
0.25
Goals against per game
1.00
25.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
48
History Matches
49
1.02
Conceded Mean
1.10
1.03
Conceded Std
1.33
31.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
32.7%
8.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
18.4%
0.87
Venue Conceded Mean
1.31
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
39.6%
Clean-sheet rate
49.0%
22.9%
Failed-to-score rate
34.7%
47.8%
Clean-sheet rate
42.3%
21.7%
Failed-to-score rate
42.3%
75.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
39.6%
Clean-sheet rate
49.0%
22.9%
Failed-to-score rate
34.7%
47.8%
Clean-sheet rate
42.3%
21.7%
Failed-to-score rate
42.3%
39.6%
Clean-sheet rate
49.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
48
History Matches
49
0.97
Result entropy
0.96
1.54
Goal Difference Std
1.95
2.60
Stability score
4.32
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
48
Eligible Matches
49
17
Lead Matches
15
82.4%
Lead Win Rate
93.3%
0.86
Lead Points Retention
0.96
10
Trailing Matches
13
10.0%
Non-loss rate
7.7%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
48
Halftime Coverage Matches
49
0.58
First Half Goals For Mean
0.53
0.46
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.53
0.65
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.65
0.56
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.57
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
79.92
Rest days
80.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
29
Normal Rest History Matches
29
1.66
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.72
18
Long Rest History Matches
19
1.28
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.37
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
3.00
PPG
1.75
100.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
25.0%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
25.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.43
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.87
4
Current Competition Matches
4
3.00
Current Competition PPG
1.75
1.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
7
Competition Season Count
7
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.67
Portability PPG Std
0.53
1.80
Portability PPG Range
1.38
42.89
Portability Score
48.32
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
48
Clean History Matches
49
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO6.98
PPG-0.07
GF0.05
GA-0.08
PPG1.25
PPG0.34
PPG1.00
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Failed-to-score rate-0.12
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate5.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.21
History Matches-1
Goals Mean0.05
Goals Std-0.26
Scored 1+ rate11.8%
Scored 2+ rate-0.01
Scored 3+ rate0.3%
Venue Goals Mean0.16
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.21
History Matches-1
Conceded Mean-0.08
Conceded Std-0.30
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Conceded 2+ rate-0.01
Conceded 3+ rate-0.10
Venue Conceded Mean-0.44
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.48
History Matches-1
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.41
Stability score-1.72
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.58
Eligible Matches-1
Lead Matches2
Lead Win Rate-0.11
Lead Points Retention-0.09
Trailing Matches-3
Non-loss rate2.3%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-1
First Half Goals For Mean0.05
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.07
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.01
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.01
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.25
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.13
Portability PPG Range0.43
Portability Score-5.43
Rest days-0.08
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.07
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.09
Current Team ELO6.98
Current Opponent ELO-6.98
Current ELO Difference13.96
Expected score0.02
History Matches-1
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance0.73
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.08

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Viktoriya Mykolaivka

D
Prykarpattia1–1Viktoriya Mykolaivka24 Oct · away
Pick: Viktoriya Mykolaivka 41% · missed
W
Viktoriya Mykolaivka2–1Chernihiv17 Oct · home
Pick: Viktoriya Mykolaivka 49% · hit
L
Viktoriya Mykolaivka0–1Metal Kharkiv9 Sep · home
Pick: Viktoriya Mykolaivka 52% · missed
W
Probiy Horodenka0–3Viktoriya Mykolaivka30 Aug · away
Pick: Viktoriya Mykolaivka 43% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Ahrobiznes Volochysk

W
Ahrobiznes Volochysk3–0Prykarpattia30 Oct · home
Pick: Ahrobiznes Volochysk 46% · hit
W
Ahrobiznes Volochysk3–2UCSA4 Oct · home
Pick: Ahrobiznes Volochysk 50% · hit
L
Kulykiv5–1Ahrobiznes Volochysk30 Aug · away
Pick: Kulykiv 50% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Viktoriya Mykolaivka and Ahrobiznes Volochysk meet in Persha Liga on Monday 9 November 2026, kickoff 09:00 UTC. The match is played at Yuvileiny Stadium, Sumy. ScoreProb published its prediction on 3 Nov, 08:36 UTC: Viktoriya Mykolaivka win 50.2%, draw 24.5%, Ahrobiznes Volochysk win 25.3%. The pick is Viktoriya Mykolaivka win. Over 2.5 goals: 46.3%. Both teams to score: 44.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.