ScoreProb
Serie B Brazil Round 37 2026

Vila Nova vs Criciuma

Vila Nova Home · Elo 1,565
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Criciuma Away · Elo 1,613
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Vila Nova win
Vila Nova winPick
41.0%
Draw
32.0%
Criciuma win
26.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes45.5%
No54.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.535.3%
Under 2.564.7%

How much we know

Vila Nova history78 matches
Criciuma history71 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 14 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 23:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (41.0%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Vila Nova are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Criciuma are rated 48 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,613 against 1,565. On rating alone Criciuma would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.24 goals a game over 78 matches for Vila Nova, against 1.23 over 71 for Criciuma.

  • Defences are close

    Vila Nova concede 0.94 a game, Criciuma 0.85.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    35% of Vila Nova matches, against 31% for Criciuma. The model puts this match at 35% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Vila Nova
Criciuma
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1564.9
ELO
1613.3
78
ELO · Matches
71
1564.9
Current Team ELO
1613.3
1613.3
Current Opponent ELO
1564.9
-48.41
Current ELO Difference
48.41
0.43
Expected score
0.57
78
History Matches
71
0.04
Residual Mean
0.08
52.84
Overperformance
56.02
-0.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.12
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.40
1.60
Goals for per game
0.40
0.60
Goals against per game
0.80
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
2.20
1.30
Goals for per game
0.90
1.00
Goals against per game
0.50
40.0%
Win rate
70.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.90
1.79
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.70
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.50
0.77
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.81
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
2.28
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.28
Overall performance9 signals
90
78
Matches
71
1.59
PPG
1.70
44.9%
Win rate
45.1%
24.4%
Draw rate
35.2%
30.8%
Loss rate
19.7%
64.1%
Over 1.5 rate
60.6%
34.6%
Over 2.5 rate
31.0%
15.4%
Over 3.5 rate
14.1%
1.64
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.48
Venue performance10 signals
100
37
Matches
36
1.89
PPG
1.47
51.4%
Win rate
36.1%
35.1%
Draw rate
38.9%
13.5%
Loss rate
25.0%
67.6%
Over 1.5 rate
55.6%
45.9%
Over 2.5 rate
27.8%
21.6%
Over 3.5 rate
11.1%
1.75
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.57
37
History Matches
36
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.24
Goals for per game
1.23
67.9%
Scoring rate
74.6%
38.5%
BTTS rate
42.3%
1.62
Goals for per game
1.00
81.1%
Scoring rate
66.7%
45.9%
BTTS rate
38.9%
1.45
Goals for per game
0.90
68.2%
Scoring rate
75.0%
40.9%
BTTS rate
35.0%
78
History Matches
71
1.24
Goals Mean
1.23
1.28
Goals Std
1.05
67.9%
Scored 1+ rate
74.6%
33.3%
Scored 2+ rate
31.0%
12.8%
Scored 3+ rate
12.7%
1.62
Venue Goals Mean
1.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.94
Goals against per game
0.85
61.5%
Conceding rate
54.9%
0.81
Goals against per game
0.92
51.4%
Conceding rate
58.3%
1.05
Goals against per game
0.60
68.2%
Conceding rate
50.0%
78
History Matches
71
0.94
Conceded Mean
0.85
0.90
Conceded Std
1.07
26.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
18.3%
5.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
5.6%
0.81
Venue Conceded Mean
0.92
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
38.5%
Clean-sheet rate
45.1%
32.1%
Failed-to-score rate
25.4%
48.6%
Clean-sheet rate
41.7%
18.9%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
31.8%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
31.8%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
38.5%
Clean-sheet rate
45.1%
32.1%
Failed-to-score rate
25.4%
48.6%
Clean-sheet rate
41.7%
18.9%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
38.5%
Clean-sheet rate
45.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
78
History Matches
71
0.97
Result entropy
0.95
1.64
Goal Difference Std
1.48
2.94
Stability score
4.71
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
78
Eligible Matches
71
26
Lead Matches
23
80.8%
Lead Win Rate
87.0%
0.87
Lead Points Retention
0.91
18
Trailing Matches
12
22.2%
Non-loss rate
50.0%
5.6%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
78
Halftime Coverage Matches
71
0.62
First Half Goals For Mean
0.52
0.44
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.35
0.63
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.70
0.50
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.49
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
75.10
Rest days
75.08
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
8
1.60
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.63
48
Normal Rest History Matches
35
1.60
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.86
24
Long Rest History Matches
27
1.50
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.56
Competition & season17 signals
170
22
Matches
20
1.68
PPG
1.85
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
18.2%
Draw rate
35.0%
31.8%
Loss rate
15.0%
63.6%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
40.9%
Over 2.5 rate
10.0%
18.2%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.67
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.00
22
Current Competition Matches
20
1.68
Current Competition PPG
1.85
0.41
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.30
7
Competition Season Count
6
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.45
Portability PPG Std
0.36
1.30
Portability PPG Range
1.00
52.77
Portability Score
57.99
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
78
Clean History Matches
71
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-48.41
PPG-0.11
GF0.02
GA0.09
PPG-0.17
PPG0.42
PPG0.00
PPG-0.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches7
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Failed-to-score rate6.7%
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate7.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.14
History Matches7
Goals Mean0.02
Goals Std0.23
Scored 1+ rate-0.07
Scored 2+ rate2.3%
Scored 3+ rate0.1%
Venue Goals Mean0.62
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std1.09
History Matches7
Conceded Mean0.09
Conceded Std-0.17
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Conceded 2+ rate8.6%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Conceded Mean-0.11
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.03
History Matches7
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std0.17
Stability score-1.76
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.00
Eligible Matches7
Lead Matches3
Lead Win Rate-0.06
Lead Points Retention-0.04
Trailing Matches6
Non-loss rate-0.28
Trailing Win Rate5.6%
Halftime Coverage Matches7
First Half Goals For Mean0.09
First Half Goals Against Mean0.08
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.08
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.01
Current Competition Matches2
Current Competition PPG-0.17
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.11
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.09
Portability PPG Range0.30
Portability Score-5.22
Rest days0.02
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-3
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.02
Normal Rest History Matches13
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.25
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.06
Current Team ELO-48.41
Current Opponent ELO48.41
Current ELO Difference-96.83
Expected score-0.14
History Matches7
Residual Mean-0.04
Overperformance-3.18
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.21

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Vila Nova

L
São Bernardo3–2Vila Nova24 Oct · away
Pick: São Bernardo 38% · hit
D
Vila Nova2–2Novorizontino18 Oct · home
Pick: Vila Nova 39% · missed
D
Vila Nova0–0Cuiaba7 Oct · home
Pick: Vila Nova 52% · missed
W
Vila Nova2–0Ceara30 Aug · home
Pick: Vila Nova 50% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Criciuma

W
Criciuma2–0Ponte Preta30 Oct · home
Pick: Criciuma 69% · hit
L
Sport Recife2–1Criciuma24 Oct · away
Pick: Sport Recife 43% · hit
W
São Bernardo0–1Criciuma18 Oct · away
Pick: Criciuma 36% · hit
W
Criciuma1–0America Mineiro12 Oct · home
Pick: Criciuma 61% · hit
L
Ceara1–0Criciuma8 Oct · away
Pick: Ceara 37% · hit

About this match

Vila Nova and Criciuma meet in Serie B on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 23:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Vila Nova win 41.0%, draw 32.0%, Criciuma win 26.9%. The pick is Vila Nova win. Over 2.5 goals: 35.3%. Both teams to score: 45.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.