ScoreProb
Ligue A Burundi Round 12 2026

Vital'O vs Musongati

Vital'O Home · Elo 1,577
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Musongati Away · Elo 1,605
Intwari Stadium, Bujumbura Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Vital'O win
Vital'O winPick
47.5%
Draw
25.3%
Musongati win
27.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes45.4%
No54.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.542.0%
Under 2.558.0%

How much we know

Vital'O history45 matches
Musongati history46 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (47.5%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Vital'O are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Musongati are rated 27 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,605 against 1,577. On rating alone Musongati would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.62 goals a game over 45 matches for Vital'O, against 1.50 over 46 for Musongati.

  • Musongati concede fewer

    Vital'O concede 0.93 a game, Musongati 0.67.

  • Vital'O games more often go over 2.5 goals

    49% of Vital'O matches, against 37% for Musongati. The model puts this match at 42% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Vital'O
Musongati
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1577.4
ELO
1604.8
45
ELO · Matches
46
1577.4
Current Team ELO
1604.8
1604.8
Current Opponent ELO
1577.4
-27.44
Current ELO Difference
27.44
0.46
Expected score
0.54
45
History Matches
46
0.09
Residual Mean
0.11
55.90
Overperformance
58.00
0.14
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.01
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
2.00
1.20
Goals for per game
1.80
1.00
Goals against per game
0.80
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
2.10
PPG
1.70
2.30
Goals for per game
1.10
1.10
Goals against per game
0.70
60.0%
Win rate
50.0%
2.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
2.10
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.30
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.70
0.94
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.90
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.09
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.43
Overall performance9 signals
90
45
Matches
46
1.80
PPG
2.00
51.1%
Win rate
58.7%
26.7%
Draw rate
23.9%
22.2%
Loss rate
17.4%
64.4%
Over 1.5 rate
56.5%
48.9%
Over 2.5 rate
37.0%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
19.6%
1.58
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.51
Venue performance10 signals
100
23
Matches
22
1.70
PPG
2.00
47.8%
Win rate
59.1%
26.1%
Draw rate
22.7%
26.1%
Loss rate
18.2%
65.2%
Over 1.5 rate
68.2%
47.8%
Over 2.5 rate
45.5%
21.7%
Over 3.5 rate
22.7%
1.78
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.56
23
History Matches
22
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.62
Goals for per game
1.50
82.2%
Scoring rate
73.9%
55.6%
BTTS rate
34.8%
1.74
Goals for per game
1.64
78.3%
Scoring rate
81.8%
56.5%
BTTS rate
45.5%
1.50
Goals for per game
0.50
100.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
45
History Matches
46
1.62
Goals Mean
1.50
1.54
Goals Std
1.35
82.2%
Scored 1+ rate
73.9%
40.0%
Scored 2+ rate
39.1%
15.6%
Scored 3+ rate
23.9%
1.74
Venue Goals Mean
1.64
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.93
Goals against per game
0.67
66.7%
Conceding rate
45.7%
1.04
Goals against per game
0.86
73.9%
Conceding rate
50.0%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
45
History Matches
46
0.93
Conceded Mean
0.67
0.80
Conceded Std
0.89
24.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
17.4%
2.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
2.2%
1.04
Venue Conceded Mean
0.86
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
54.3%
17.8%
Failed-to-score rate
26.1%
26.1%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
21.7%
Failed-to-score rate
18.2%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
54.3%
17.8%
Failed-to-score rate
26.1%
26.1%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
21.7%
Failed-to-score rate
18.2%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
54.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
45
History Matches
46
0.94
Result entropy
0.87
1.58
Goal Difference Std
1.51
6.27
Stability score
12.70
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
39
Eligible Matches
40
14
Lead Matches
15
85.7%
Lead Win Rate
86.7%
0.90
Lead Points Retention
0.89
2
Trailing Matches
8
50.0%
Non-loss rate
25.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
25.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
39
Halftime Coverage Matches
40
0.85
First Half Goals For Mean
0.58
0.31
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.35
0.82
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.93
0.56
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.38
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.00
Rest days
80.97
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
3
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
20
Normal Rest History Matches
26
2.10
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.12
23
Long Rest History Matches
16
1.52
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.94
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
2.00
PPG
0.50
50.0%
Win rate
0.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.50
2
Current Competition Matches
2
2.00
Current Competition PPG
0.50
0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.50
3
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.37
Portability PPG Std
0.16
0.74
Portability PPG Range
0.32
57.44
Portability Score
75.81
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
45
Clean History Matches
46
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-27.44
PPG-0.20
GF0.12
GA0.26
PPG1.50
PPG-0.30
PPG-0.40
PPG0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate-0.21
Failed-to-score rate-0.08
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate-0.24
Failed-to-score rate3.6%
History Matches-1
Goals Mean0.12
Goals Std0.19
Scored 1+ rate8.3%
Scored 2+ rate0.9%
Scored 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.80
History Matches-1
Conceded Mean0.26
Conceded Std-0.09
Clean-sheet rate-0.21
Conceded 2+ rate7.1%
Conceded 3+ rate0.0%
Venue Conceded Mean0.18
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.04
History Matches-1
Result entropy0.06
Goal Difference Std0.07
Stability score-6.43
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.12
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.66
Eligible Matches-1
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate-0.01
Lead Points Retention0.02
Trailing Matches-6
Non-loss rate25.0%
Trailing Win Rate-0.25
Halftime Coverage Matches-1
First Half Goals For Mean0.27
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.04
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.10
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.19
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.21
Portability PPG Range0.42
Portability Score-18.37
Rest days-3.97
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Short Rest Points Per Match1.00
Normal Rest History Matches-6
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.02
Long Rest History Matches7
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.42
Current Team ELO-27.44
Current Opponent ELO27.44
Current ELO Difference-54.88
Expected score-0.08
History Matches-1
Residual Mean-0.03
Overperformance-2.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.15

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Vital'O

W
Vital'O2–0Le Messager Ngozi30 Oct · home
Pick: Vital'O 38% · hit
L
Never Give Up Academy2–1Vital'O25 Oct · away
Pick: Vital'O 40% · missed
D
Vital'O0–0Muzinga18 Oct · home
Pick: Vital'O 56% · missed
L
Bumamuru3–1Vital'O15 Oct · away
Pick: Vital'O 41% · missed
L
Royal Vision5–0Vital'O4 Oct · away
Pick: Royal Vision 37% · hit

Musongati

D
Musongati1–1Olympic Star25 Oct · home
Pick: Musongati 56% · missed
L
Inter Star2–1Musongati18 Oct · away
Pick: Musongati 40% · missed
W
Panthere Noir0–2Musongati14 Oct · away
Pick: Musongati 42% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Vital'O and Musongati meet in Ligue A on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. The match is played at Intwari Stadium, Bujumbura. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Vital'O win 47.5%, draw 25.3%, Musongati win 27.2%. The pick is Vital'O win. Over 2.5 goals: 42.0%. Both teams to score: 45.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.