ScoreProb
Eerste Divisie Netherlands Round 14 2026

Vitesse vs De Graafschap

Vitesse Home · Elo 1,514
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
De Graafschap Away · Elo 1,488
GelreDome, Arnhem Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Vitesse win
Vitesse winPick
48.2%
Draw
24.6%
De Graafschap win
27.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes62.5%
No37.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.568.2%
Under 2.531.8%

How much we know

Vitesse history61 matches
De Graafschap history70 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 2 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 11:15 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (48.2%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Vitesse are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Vitesse are rated 26 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,514 against 1,488. On rating alone Vitesse would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.

  • De Graafschap score more

    1.56 goals a game over 61 matches for Vitesse, against 1.81 over 70 for De Graafschap.

  • Vitesse concede fewer

    Vitesse concede 1.36 a game, De Graafschap 1.73.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    61% of Vitesse matches, against 64% for De Graafschap. The model puts this match at 68% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Vitesse
De Graafschap
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1513.7
ELO
1487.5
61
ELO · Matches
70
1513.7
Current Team ELO
1487.5
1487.5
Current Opponent ELO
1513.7
26.13
Current ELO Difference
-26.13
0.54
Expected score
0.46
61
History Matches
70
0.01
Residual Mean
-0.01
50.86
Overperformance
49.22
0.00
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.20
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
0.80
1.00
Goals for per game
1.80
1.40
Goals against per game
3.00
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
0.80
1.10
Goals for per game
1.90
1.00
Goals against per game
3.30
30.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.90
1.04
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.94
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
3.30
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std
2.10
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.58
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.15
Overall performance9 signals
90
61
Matches
70
1.48
PPG
1.47
39.3%
Win rate
41.4%
29.5%
Draw rate
22.9%
31.1%
Loss rate
35.7%
85.2%
Over 1.5 rate
87.1%
60.7%
Over 2.5 rate
64.3%
34.4%
Over 3.5 rate
47.1%
1.89
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.84
Venue performance10 signals
100
31
Matches
35
1.55
PPG
1.29
41.9%
Win rate
34.3%
29.0%
Draw rate
25.7%
29.0%
Loss rate
40.0%
80.6%
Over 1.5 rate
88.6%
58.1%
Over 2.5 rate
62.9%
29.0%
Over 3.5 rate
45.7%
1.77
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.65
31
History Matches
35
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.56
Goals for per game
1.81
77.0%
Scoring rate
84.3%
57.4%
BTTS rate
71.4%
1.55
Goals for per game
1.66
80.6%
Scoring rate
77.1%
58.1%
BTTS rate
71.4%
1.33
Goals for per game
1.33
66.7%
Scoring rate
100.0%
66.7%
BTTS rate
100.0%
61
History Matches
70
1.56
Goals Mean
1.81
1.27
Goals Std
1.22
77.0%
Scored 1+ rate
84.3%
47.5%
Scored 2+ rate
60.0%
21.3%
Scored 3+ rate
25.7%
1.55
Venue Goals Mean
1.66
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.36
Goals against per game
1.73
73.8%
Conceding rate
82.9%
1.19
Goals against per game
1.83
67.7%
Conceding rate
91.4%
1.67
Goals against per game
2.67
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
61
History Matches
70
1.36
Conceded Mean
1.73
1.13
Conceded Std
1.45
41.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
47.1%
16.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
22.9%
1.19
Venue Conceded Mean
1.83
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
26.2%
Clean-sheet rate
17.1%
23.0%
Failed-to-score rate
15.7%
32.3%
Clean-sheet rate
8.6%
19.4%
Failed-to-score rate
22.9%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
26.2%
Clean-sheet rate
17.1%
23.0%
Failed-to-score rate
15.7%
32.3%
Clean-sheet rate
8.6%
19.4%
Failed-to-score rate
22.9%
26.2%
Clean-sheet rate
17.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
61
History Matches
70
0.99
Result entropy
0.97
1.89
Goal Difference Std
1.84
0.74
Stability score
2.59
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
61
Eligible Matches
68
29
Lead Matches
25
72.4%
Lead Win Rate
72.0%
0.79
Lead Points Retention
0.79
17
Trailing Matches
15
23.5%
Non-loss rate
26.7%
5.9%
Trailing Win Rate
6.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
61
Halftime Coverage Matches
68
0.82
First Half Goals For Mean
0.88
0.66
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.69
0.74
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.91
0.70
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.90
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
78.72
Rest days
76.85
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
12
Short Rest History Matches
5
1.58
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
31
Normal Rest History Matches
42
1.39
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.48
17
Long Rest History Matches
22
1.47
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.36
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
1.33
PPG
0.33
33.3%
Win rate
0.0%
33.3%
Draw rate
33.3%
33.3%
Loss rate
66.7%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
2.05
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.25
3
Current Competition Matches
3
1.33
Current Competition PPG
0.33
-0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.33
6
Competition Season Count
8
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.18
Portability PPG Std
0.58
0.46
Portability PPG Range
1.48
73.97
Portability Score
46.16
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
61
Clean History Matches
70
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO26.13
PPG0.00
GF-0.26
GA-0.37
PPG1.00
PPG0.26
PPG0.20
PPG0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-9
Clean-sheet rate9.1%
Failed-to-score rate7.2%
History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate23.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches-9
Goals Mean-0.26
Goals Std0.05
Scored 1+ rate-0.07
Scored 2+ rate-0.12
Scored 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Goals Mean-0.11
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std0.10
History Matches-9
Conceded Mean-0.37
Conceded Std-0.32
Clean-sheet rate9.1%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.06
Conceded 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Conceded Mean-0.64
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-2.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-1.10
History Matches-9
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std0.05
Stability score-1.85
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.58
Eligible Matches-7
Lead Matches4
Lead Win Rate0.4%
Lead Points Retention0.01
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate-0.03
Trailing Win Rate-0.01
Halftime Coverage Matches-7
First Half Goals For Mean-0.06
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.04
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.17
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.19
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.00
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.41
Portability PPG Range-1.01
Portability Score27.81
Rest days1.86
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches7
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.42
Normal Rest History Matches-11
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.09
Long Rest History Matches-5
Long Rest Points Per Match0.11
Current Team ELO26.13
Current Opponent ELO-26.13
Current ELO Difference52.26
Expected score0.08
History Matches-9
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance1.65
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.19

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Vitesse

D
Jong Ajax1–1Vitesse2 Nov · away
Pick: Vitesse 52% · missed
W
VVV Venlo0–2Vitesse28 Oct · away
Pick: VVV Venlo 46% · missed
L
Vitesse0–2Emmen23 Oct · home
Pick: Vitesse 41% · missed
W
FC Eindhoven0–1Vitesse16 Oct · away
Pick: Vitesse 40% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

De Graafschap

W
FC Volendam1–2De Graafschap30 Oct · away
Pick: FC Volendam 51% · missed
L
Roda1–0De Graafschap27 Oct · away
Pick: De Graafschap 39% · missed
D
De Graafschap1–1Waalwijk23 Oct · home
Pick: Waalwijk 48% · missed
L
Jong Ajax2–1De Graafschap19 Oct · away
Pick: De Graafschap 41% · missed
L
De Graafschap1–4Almere City FC29 Aug · home
Pick: Almere City FC 50% · hit

About this match

Vitesse and De Graafschap meet in Eerste Divisie on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 11:15 UTC. The match is played at GelreDome, Arnhem. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Vitesse win 48.2%, draw 24.6%, De Graafschap win 27.2%. The pick is Vitesse win. Over 2.5 goals: 68.2%. Both teams to score: 62.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.