ScoreProb
Superliga Albania Round 11 2026

Vllaznia Shkodër vs AF Elbasani

Vllaznia Shkodër Home · Elo 1,514
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
AF Elbasani Away · Elo 1,570
Loro Borici Stadium Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Vllaznia Shkodër win
Vllaznia Shkodër winPick
42.1%
Draw
31.6%
AF Elbasani win
26.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes51.6%
No48.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.546.4%
Under 2.553.6%

How much we know

Vllaznia Shkodër history79 matches
AF Elbasani history64 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 17:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (42.1%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Vllaznia Shkodër are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • AF Elbasani are rated 56 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,570 against 1,514. On rating alone AF Elbasani would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.25 goals a game over 79 matches for Vllaznia Shkodër, against 1.22 over 64 for AF Elbasani.

  • AF Elbasani concede fewer

    Vllaznia Shkodër concede 1.19 a game, AF Elbasani 1.02.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    43% of Vllaznia Shkodër matches, against 41% for AF Elbasani. The model puts this match at 46% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Vllaznia Shkodër
AF Elbasani
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1513.6
ELO
1569.8
79
ELO · Matches
64
1513.6
Current Team ELO
1569.8
1569.8
Current Opponent ELO
1513.6
-56.26
Current ELO Difference
56.26
0.42
Expected score
0.58
79
History Matches
64
0.02
Residual Mean
0.06
51.28
Overperformance
54.30
-0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.10
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
1.80
1.80
Goals for per game
1.40
2.00
Goals against per game
0.60
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
0.90
PPG
1.20
1.50
Goals for per game
1.40
2.60
Goals against per game
1.70
20.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
0.92
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.02
2.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
1.69
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.42
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
2.30
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.95
Overall performance9 signals
90
79
Matches
64
1.44
PPG
1.58
38.0%
Win rate
39.1%
30.4%
Draw rate
40.6%
31.6%
Loss rate
20.3%
65.8%
Over 1.5 rate
68.8%
43.0%
Over 2.5 rate
40.6%
26.6%
Over 3.5 rate
15.6%
1.58
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.25
Venue performance10 signals
100
43
Matches
31
1.84
PPG
1.48
53.5%
Win rate
35.5%
23.3%
Draw rate
41.9%
23.3%
Loss rate
22.6%
69.8%
Over 1.5 rate
71.0%
44.2%
Over 2.5 rate
45.2%
18.6%
Over 3.5 rate
22.6%
1.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.13
43
History Matches
31
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.25
Goals for per game
1.22
70.9%
Scoring rate
81.3%
46.8%
BTTS rate
59.4%
1.42
Goals for per game
1.29
76.7%
Scoring rate
83.9%
44.2%
BTTS rate
67.7%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
79
History Matches
64
1.25
Goals Mean
1.22
1.07
Goals Std
0.87
70.9%
Scored 1+ rate
81.3%
38.0%
Scored 2+ rate
31.3%
13.9%
Scored 3+ rate
7.8%
1.42
Venue Goals Mean
1.29
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.19
Goals against per game
1.02
64.6%
Conceding rate
65.6%
0.93
Goals against per game
1.23
60.5%
Conceding rate
74.2%
2.00
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
79
History Matches
64
1.19
Conceded Mean
1.02
1.25
Conceded Std
1.04
31.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
21.9%
12.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
9.4%
0.93
Venue Conceded Mean
1.23
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
35.4%
Clean-sheet rate
34.4%
29.1%
Failed-to-score rate
18.8%
39.5%
Clean-sheet rate
25.8%
23.3%
Failed-to-score rate
16.1%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
35.4%
Clean-sheet rate
34.4%
29.1%
Failed-to-score rate
18.8%
39.5%
Clean-sheet rate
25.8%
23.3%
Failed-to-score rate
16.1%
35.4%
Clean-sheet rate
34.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
79
History Matches
64
1.00
Result entropy
0.96
1.58
Goal Difference Std
1.25
0.44
Stability score
3.80
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
79
Eligible Matches
64
25
Lead Matches
18
76.0%
Lead Win Rate
72.2%
0.84
Lead Points Retention
0.81
16
Trailing Matches
14
25.0%
Non-loss rate
35.7%
6.3%
Trailing Win Rate
14.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
79
Halftime Coverage Matches
64
0.56
First Half Goals For Mean
0.52
0.47
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.38
0.70
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.70
0.72
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.64
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.94
Rest days
77.15
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
0
0.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
53
Normal Rest History Matches
50
1.43
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.72
21
Long Rest History Matches
13
1.71
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.15
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
1.00
PPG
1.00
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
100.0%
Draw rate
100.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
1.00
Current Competition PPG
1.00
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
8
Competition Season Count
6
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.46
Portability PPG Std
0.22
1.29
Portability PPG Range
0.54
52.03
Portability Score
69.26
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
79
Clean History Matches
64
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-56.26
PPG-0.14
GF0.03
GA0.17
PPG0.00
PPG0.35
PPG-0.20
PPG-0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches15
Clean-sheet rate1.1%
Failed-to-score rate10.4%
History Matches12
Clean-sheet rate13.7%
Failed-to-score rate7.1%
History Matches15
Goals Mean0.03
Goals Std0.20
Scored 1+ rate-0.10
Scored 2+ rate6.7%
Scored 3+ rate6.1%
Venue Goals Mean0.13
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.10
History Matches15
Conceded Mean0.17
Conceded Std0.22
Clean-sheet rate1.1%
Conceded 2+ rate9.8%
Conceded 3+ rate3.3%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.27
History Matches15
Result entropy0.03
Goal Difference Std0.33
Stability score-3.35
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.35
Eligible Matches15
Lead Matches7
Lead Win Rate3.8%
Lead Points Retention0.03
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate-0.11
Trailing Win Rate-0.08
Halftime Coverage Matches15
First Half Goals For Mean0.04
First Half Goals Against Mean0.09
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.01
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.08
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.00
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count3
Portability PPG Std0.24
Portability PPG Range0.74
Portability Score-17.23
Rest days0.79
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches4
Normal Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.29
Long Rest History Matches8
Long Rest Points Per Match0.56
Current Team ELO-56.26
Current Opponent ELO56.26
Current ELO Difference-112.5
Expected score-0.16
History Matches15
Residual Mean-0.04
Overperformance-3.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.04

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Vllaznia Shkodër

D
Skenderbeu Korce1–1Vllaznia Shkodër1 Nov · away
Pick: Skenderbeu Korce 37% · missed
L
Vora2–1Vllaznia Shkodër28 Oct · away
Pick: Vora 42% · hit
W
Vllaznia Shkodër2–0Tirana24 Oct · home
Pick: Vllaznia Shkodër 59% · hit
L
Egnatia Rrogozhinë3–1Vllaznia Shkodër18 Oct · away
Pick: Egnatia Rrogozhinë 61% · hit
D
AF Elbasani1–1Vllaznia Shkodër29 Aug · away
Pick: AF Elbasani 38% · missed

AF Elbasani

W
AF Elbasani2–1Laci1 Nov · home
Pick: AF Elbasani 40% · hit
W
AF Elbasani2–1Partizani28 Oct · home
Pick: AF Elbasani 38% · hit
D
Teuta Durrës0–0AF Elbasani24 Oct · away
Pick: Draw 34% · hit
L
Skenderbeu Korce2–1AF Elbasani17 Oct · away
Pick: Skenderbeu Korce 44% · hit
D
AF Elbasani1–1Vllaznia Shkodër29 Aug · home
Pick: AF Elbasani 38% · missed

About this match

Vllaznia Shkodër and AF Elbasani meet in Superliga on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 17:30 UTC. The match is played at Loro Borici Stadium. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Vllaznia Shkodër win 42.1%, draw 31.6%, AF Elbasani win 26.3%. The pick is Vllaznia Shkodër win. Over 2.5 goals: 46.4%. Both teams to score: 51.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.