Wadi Degla vs Kahraba Ismailia
Match result probability Model pick: Wadi Degla win
Wadi Degla winPick
48.9%
Draw
30.2%
Kahraba Ismailia win
20.9%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes48.4%
No51.6%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.549.0%
Under 2.551.0%
How much we know
Wadi Degla history65 matches
Kahraba Ismailia history61 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Wadi Degla
Over / under 2.5: ours Under
Both teams to score: ours No
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead3 Nov · 08:36 UTC
- Re-published 4 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 4 Nov · 08:08 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 11:30 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre9 Nov · 12:30 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,274 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,668
40–49% Won 45.5% · said 44.8% · n 6,228
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,755
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,872
70–79% Won 76.3% · said 73.9% · n 587
80%+ Won 83.5% · said 84.5% · n 164
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (48.9%). Picks in that band won 45.5% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,228 matches.
Why Wadi Degla are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Wadi Degla are rated 72 Elo points higher
Elo 1,566 against 1,494. On rating alone Wadi Degla would be expected to take 60% of the points on offer.
-
Scoring rates are level
1.25 goals a game over 65 matches for Wadi Degla, against 1.30 over 61 for Kahraba Ismailia.
-
Wadi Degla concede fewer
Wadi Degla concede 0.77 a game, Kahraba Ismailia 1.33.
-
Kahraba Ismailia games more often go over 2.5 goals
38% of Wadi Degla matches, against 51% for Kahraba Ismailia. The model puts this match at 49% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Kahraba Ismailia@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1566.3
ELO
1494.3
65
ELO · Matches
61
1566.3
Current Team ELO
1494.3
1494.3
Current Opponent ELO
1566.3
71.99
Current ELO Difference
-71.99
0.60
Expected score
0.40
65
History Matches
61
0.05
Residual Mean
0.00
53.45
Overperformance
50.06
-0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.00
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
1.20
0.80
Goals for per game
0.80
0.20
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
1.30
1.20
Goals for per game
1.10
0.90
Goals against per game
1.40
30.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
0.87
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.70
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
0.83
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.02
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.19
Overall performance9 signals 90
65
Matches
61
1.62
PPG
1.41
41.5%
Win rate
34.4%
36.9%
Draw rate
37.7%
21.5%
Loss rate
27.9%
61.5%
Over 1.5 rate
77.0%
38.5%
Over 2.5 rate
50.8%
15.4%
Over 3.5 rate
23.0%
1.24
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.27
Venue performance10 signals 100
31
Matches
28
1.58
PPG
1.89
41.9%
Win rate
50.0%
32.3%
Draw rate
39.3%
25.8%
Loss rate
10.7%
64.5%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
41.9%
Over 2.5 rate
42.9%
19.4%
Over 3.5 rate
17.9%
1.29
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.14
31
History Matches
28
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.25
Goals for per game
1.30
67.7%
Scoring rate
85.2%
47.7%
BTTS rate
67.2%
1.32
Goals for per game
1.36
67.7%
Scoring rate
85.7%
51.6%
BTTS rate
60.7%
65
History Matches
61
1.25
Goals Mean
1.30
1.12
Goals Std
0.80
67.7%
Scored 1+ rate
85.2%
40.0%
Scored 2+ rate
37.7%
12.3%
Scored 3+ rate
6.6%
1.32
Venue Goals Mean
1.36
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.77
Goals against per game
1.33
61.5%
Conceding rate
75.4%
0.84
Goals against per game
0.96
67.7%
Conceding rate
67.9%
65
History Matches
61
0.77
Conceded Mean
1.33
0.72
Conceded Std
1.16
13.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
36.1%
1.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
13.1%
0.84
Venue Conceded Mean
0.96
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
38.5%
Clean-sheet rate
24.6%
32.3%
Failed-to-score rate
14.8%
32.3%
Clean-sheet rate
32.1%
32.3%
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
38.5%
Clean-sheet rate
24.6%
32.3%
Failed-to-score rate
14.8%
32.3%
Clean-sheet rate
32.1%
32.3%
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
38.5%
Clean-sheet rate
24.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
65
History Matches
61
0.97
Result entropy
0.99
1.24
Goal Difference Std
1.27
3.20
Stability score
0.70
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
65
Eligible Matches
59
17
Lead Matches
12
88.2%
Lead Win Rate
58.3%
0.90
Lead Points Retention
0.69
11
Trailing Matches
17
45.5%
Non-loss rate
47.1%
27.3%
Trailing Win Rate
17.6%
Goal timing5 signals 50
65
Halftime Coverage Matches
59
0.51
First Half Goals For Mean
0.37
0.34
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.47
0.74
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.93
0.43
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.86
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
79.94
Rest days
163.9
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
2
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
42
Normal Rest History Matches
41
1.81
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.59
20
Long Rest History Matches
17
1.20
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.94
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
6
Competition Season Count
4
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.15
Portability PPG Std
0.52
0.34
Portability PPG Range
1.23
76.96
Portability Score
49.21
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
65
Clean History Matches
61
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO71.99
PPG0.21
GF-0.05
GA-0.56
PPG-0.31
PPG0.40
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate13.9%
Failed-to-score rate17.6%
History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate0.1%
Failed-to-score rate18.0%
History Matches4
Goals Mean-0.05
Goals Std0.33
Scored 1+ rate-0.18
Scored 2+ rate2.3%
Scored 3+ rate5.8%
Venue Goals Mean-0.03
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.17
History Matches4
Conceded Mean-0.56
Conceded Std-0.44
Clean-sheet rate13.9%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.22
Conceded 3+ rate-0.12
Venue Conceded Mean-0.13
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.19
History Matches4
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.03
Stability score2.50
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.18
Eligible Matches6
Lead Matches5
Lead Win Rate29.9%
Lead Points Retention0.21
Trailing Matches-6
Non-loss rate-0.02
Trailing Win Rate9.6%
Halftime Coverage Matches6
First Half Goals For Mean0.13
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.14
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.19
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.43
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.37
Portability PPG Range-0.89
Portability Score27.75
Rest days-84.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match1.00
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.22
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.26
Current Team ELO71.99
Current Opponent ELO-71.99
Current ELO Difference144.0
Expected score0.20
History Matches4
Residual Mean0.04
Overperformance3.39
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.02
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Wadi Degla
W
Wadi Degla1–0Zamalek SC2 Nov · home
Pick: Zamalek SC 44% · missed L
Pyramids FC2–1Wadi Degla29 Oct · away
Pick: Pyramids FC 68% · hit D
Petrojet2–2Wadi Degla13 Oct · away
Pick: Petrojet 40% · missed W
Al Ittihad0–1Wadi Degla8 Oct · away
Pick: Wadi Degla 40% · hit D
Wadi Degla0–0Olympic El Qanah1 Sep · home
Pick: Wadi Degla 41% · missed Kahraba Ismailia
D
Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat0–0Kahraba Ismailia22 Oct · away
Pick: Kahraba Ismailia 48% · missed L
Kahraba Ismailia2–3Team15 Oct · home
Pick: Kahraba Ismailia 61% · missed D
Tersana2–2Kahraba Ismailia8 Oct · away
Pick: Kahraba Ismailia 42% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Wadi Degla and Kahraba Ismailia meet in Cup on Monday 9 November 2026, kickoff 12:30 UTC. The match is played at Petrosport Stadium, Cairo. ScoreProb published its prediction on 3 Nov, 08:36 UTC: Wadi Degla win 48.9%, draw 30.2%, Kahraba Ismailia win 20.9%. The pick is Wadi Degla win. Over 2.5 goals: 49.0%. Both teams to score: 48.4%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.