ScoreProb
Oberliga - Westfalen Germany Westfalen - 13 2026

Westfalia Kinderhaus vs Vreden

Westfalia Kinderhaus Home · Elo 1,521
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Vreden Away · Elo 1,451
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Westfalia Kinderhaus win
Westfalia Kinderhaus winPick
42.9%
Draw
35.3%
Vreden win
21.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes55.4%
No44.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.560.6%
Under 2.539.4%

How much we know

Westfalia Kinderhaus history3 matches
Vreden history57 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 13:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (42.9%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Westfalia Kinderhaus are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Westfalia Kinderhaus are rated 70 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,521 against 1,451. On rating alone Westfalia Kinderhaus would be expected to take 60% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.67 goals a game over 3 matches for Westfalia Kinderhaus, against 1.67 over 57 for Vreden.

  • Westfalia Kinderhaus concede fewer

    Westfalia Kinderhaus concede 0.67 a game, Vreden 1.84.

  • Vreden games more often go over 2.5 goals

    33% of Westfalia Kinderhaus matches, against 61% for Vreden. The model puts this match at 61% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Westfalia Kinderhaus
Vreden
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1520.7
ELO
1450.7
3
ELO · Matches
57
1520.7
Current Team ELO
1450.7
1450.7
Current Opponent ELO
1520.7
70.05
Current ELO Difference
-70.05
0.60
Expected score
0.40
3
History Matches
57
0.32
Residual Mean
-0.04
54.13
Overperformance
46.97
0.32
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.00
Recent form16 signals
160
3
Matches
5
2.33
PPG
1.80
1.67
Goals for per game
2.40
0.67
Goals against per game
1.60
66.7%
Win rate
60.0%
3
Matches
10
2.33
PPG
1.20
1.67
Goals for per game
1.50
0.67
Goals against per game
2.30
66.7%
Win rate
40.0%
1.67
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
0.47
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.50
0.67
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.30
0.94
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.95
0.58
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.61
0.82
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.68
Overall performance9 signals
90
3
Matches
57
2.33
PPG
1.23
66.7%
Win rate
33.3%
33.3%
Draw rate
22.8%
0.0%
Loss rate
43.9%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
84.2%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
61.4%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
47.4%
0.82
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.34
Venue performance10 signals
100
1
Matches
28
3.00
PPG
0.89
100.0%
Win rate
21.4%
0.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
53.6%
0.0%
Over 1.5 rate
85.7%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
71.4%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.46
1
History Matches
28
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.67
Goals for per game
1.67
100.0%
Scoring rate
77.2%
33.3%
BTTS rate
57.9%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.61
100.0%
Scoring rate
75.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
64.3%
1.67
Goals for per game
3.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
33.3%
BTTS rate
66.7%
3
History Matches
57
1.67
Goals Mean
1.67
0.47
Goals Std
1.53
100.0%
Scored 1+ rate
77.2%
66.7%
Scored 2+ rate
47.4%
0.0%
Scored 3+ rate
19.3%
1.00
Venue Goals Mean
1.61
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.67
Goals against per game
1.84
33.3%
Conceding rate
75.4%
0.00
Goals against per game
2.07
0.0%
Conceding rate
82.1%
0.67
Goals against per game
2.33
33.3%
Conceding rate
66.7%
3
History Matches
57
0.67
Conceded Mean
1.84
0.94
Conceded Std
1.62
33.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
50.9%
0.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
28.1%
0.00
Venue Conceded Mean
2.07
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
66.7%
Clean-sheet rate
24.6%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
22.8%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
17.9%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
66.7%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
66.7%
Clean-sheet rate
24.6%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
22.8%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
17.9%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
66.7%
Clean-sheet rate
24.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
3
History Matches
57
0.58
Result entropy
0.97
0.82
Goal Difference Std
2.34
42.06
Stability score
3.08
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
3
Eligible Matches
57
2
Lead Matches
15
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
86.7%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.89
1
Trailing Matches
26
100.0%
Non-loss rate
26.9%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
7.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
3
Halftime Coverage Matches
57
1.00
First Half Goals For Mean
0.60
0.33
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.96
0.67
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.07
0.33
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.88
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
77.00
Rest days
77.02
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
1
Normal Rest History Matches
37
3.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.38
1
Long Rest History Matches
19
1.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.84
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
2.33
PPG
2.00
66.7%
Win rate
66.7%
33.3%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
33.3%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
66.7%
0.82
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.62
3
Current Competition Matches
3
2.33
Current Competition PPG
2.00
1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.67
1
Competition Season Count
3
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
—
Portability PPG Std
0.40
—
Portability PPG Range
0.97
—
Portability Score
55.74
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
3
Clean History Matches
57
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO70.05
PPG1.11
GF0.00
GA-1.18
PPG0.33
PPG2.11
PPG0.53
PPG1.13
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-54
Clean-sheet rate42.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.23
History Matches-27
Clean-sheet rate82.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.25
History Matches-54
Goals Mean0.00
Goals Std-1.05
Scored 1+ rate22.8%
Scored 2+ rate19.3%
Scored 3+ rate-0.19
Venue Goals Mean-0.61
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.17
Recent 10 Goals Std-1.03
History Matches-54
Conceded Mean-1.18
Conceded Std-0.68
Clean-sheet rate42.1%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.18
Conceded 3+ rate-0.28
Venue Conceded Mean-2.07
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.63
Recent 10 Conceded Std-1.01
History Matches-54
Result entropy-0.39
Goal Difference Std-1.52
Stability score38.98
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.03
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.86
Eligible Matches-54
Lead Matches-13
Lead Win Rate13.3%
Lead Points Retention0.11
Trailing Matches-25
Non-loss rate73.1%
Trailing Win Rate-0.08
Halftime Coverage Matches-54
First Half Goals For Mean0.40
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.63
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.40
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.54
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.33
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Rest days-0.02
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-36
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.62
Long Rest History Matches-18
Long Rest Points Per Match0.16
Current Team ELO70.05
Current Opponent ELO-70.05
Current ELO Difference140.1
Expected score0.20
History Matches-54
Residual Mean0.36
Overperformance7.16
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.32

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Westfalia Kinderhaus

L
Westfalia Kinderhaus0–2Hiltrup18 Oct · home
Pick: Westfalia Kinderhaus 58% · missed
D
Westfalia Kinderhaus1–1Arminia II4 Oct · home
Pick: Westfalia Kinderhaus 42% · missed
L
Westfalia Kinderhaus0–4Gievenbeck30 Aug · home
Pick: Westfalia Kinderhaus 44% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Vreden

D
Vreden1–1Erkenschwick25 Oct · home
Pick: Vreden 40% · missed
D
Gievenbeck2–2Vreden17 Oct · away
Pick: Gievenbeck 43% · missed
W
TuS Hordel1–4Vreden4 Oct · away
Pick: Vreden 36% · hit
W
Vreden2–0SpVgg Herne Horsthausen30 Aug · home
Pick: Vreden 66% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Westfalia Kinderhaus and Vreden meet in Oberliga - Westfalen on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Westfalia Kinderhaus win 42.9%, draw 35.3%, Vreden win 21.9%. The pick is Westfalia Kinderhaus win. Over 2.5 goals: 60.6%. Both teams to score: 55.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.