ScoreProb
Oberliga - Westfalen Germany Westfalen - 13 2026

Arminia II vs Verl II

Arminia II Home · Elo 1,493
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Verl II Away · Elo 1,438
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Arminia II win
Arminia II winPick
37.8%
Draw
27.2%
Verl II win
35.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes61.5%
No38.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.562.1%
Under 2.537.9%

How much we know

Arminia II history40 matches
Verl II history55 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 14:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (37.8%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Arminia II are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Arminia II are rated 55 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,493 against 1,438. On rating alone Arminia II would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.

  • Arminia II score more

    1.68 goals a game over 40 matches for Arminia II, against 1.29 over 55 for Verl II.

  • Arminia II concede fewer

    Arminia II concede 1.58 a game, Verl II 1.93.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    60% of Arminia II matches, against 56% for Verl II. The model puts this match at 62% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Arminia II
Verl II
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1493.5
ELO
1438.3
40
ELO · Matches
55
1493.5
Current Team ELO
1438.3
1438.3
Current Opponent ELO
1493.5
55.17
Current ELO Difference
-55.17
0.58
Expected score
0.42
40
History Matches
55
-0.01
Residual Mean
-0.06
49.38
Overperformance
45.66
0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.04
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
0.80
1.80
Goals for per game
1.60
1.60
Goals against per game
3.60
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
1.40
1.90
Goals for per game
1.50
1.10
Goals against per game
2.10
50.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
1.58
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.36
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.10
0.94
Recent 10 Conceded Std
2.34
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
2.09
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
3.04
Overall performance9 signals
90
40
Matches
55
1.40
PPG
1.05
37.5%
Win rate
27.3%
27.5%
Draw rate
23.6%
35.0%
Loss rate
49.1%
85.0%
Over 1.5 rate
81.8%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
56.4%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
36.4%
2.02
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.10
Venue performance10 signals
100
20
Matches
29
1.60
PPG
0.93
45.0%
Win rate
24.1%
25.0%
Draw rate
20.7%
30.0%
Loss rate
55.2%
85.0%
Over 1.5 rate
79.3%
55.0%
Over 2.5 rate
58.6%
30.0%
Over 3.5 rate
37.9%
1.98
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.29
20
History Matches
29
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.68
Goals for per game
1.29
77.5%
Scoring rate
80.0%
67.5%
BTTS rate
63.6%
1.75
Goals for per game
1.24
85.0%
Scoring rate
79.3%
70.0%
BTTS rate
62.1%
2.33
Goals for per game
2.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
40
History Matches
55
1.68
Goals Mean
1.29
1.51
Goals Std
1.11
77.5%
Scored 1+ rate
80.0%
42.5%
Scored 2+ rate
27.3%
27.5%
Scored 3+ rate
14.5%
1.75
Venue Goals Mean
1.24
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.58
Goals against per game
1.93
85.0%
Conceding rate
80.0%
1.40
Goals against per game
2.14
80.0%
Conceding rate
79.3%
1.67
Goals against per game
1.50
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
40
History Matches
55
1.58
Conceded Mean
1.93
1.24
Conceded Std
1.76
40.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
54.5%
20.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
27.3%
1.40
Venue Conceded Mean
2.14
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
15.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
22.5%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.7%
15.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.7%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
15.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
22.5%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.7%
15.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.7%
15.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
40
History Matches
55
0.99
Result entropy
0.95
2.02
Goal Difference Std
2.10
0.76
Stability score
4.92
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
40
Eligible Matches
54
15
Lead Matches
7
53.3%
Lead Win Rate
42.9%
0.64
Lead Points Retention
0.52
11
Trailing Matches
19
18.2%
Non-loss rate
10.5%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
40
Halftime Coverage Matches
54
0.80
First Half Goals For Mean
0.39
0.80
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.81
0.88
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.91
0.78
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.09
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
78.85
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
23
Normal Rest History Matches
28
1.22
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.71
16
Long Rest History Matches
26
1.56
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.35
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
2
1.33
PPG
1.50
33.3%
Win rate
50.0%
33.3%
Draw rate
0.0%
33.3%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
66.7%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.70
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.50
3
Current Competition Matches
2
1.33
Current Competition PPG
1.50
0.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.50
3
Competition Season Count
5
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.01
Portability PPG Std
0.10
0.03
Portability PPG Range
0.21
97.30
Portability Score
82.93
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
40
Clean History Matches
55
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO55.17
PPG0.35
GF0.38
GA-0.35
PPG-0.17
PPG0.67
PPG0.60
PPG0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-15
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Failed-to-score rate2.5%
History Matches-9
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches-15
Goals Mean0.38
Goals Std0.40
Scored 1+ rate-0.03
Scored 2+ rate15.2%
Scored 3+ rate13.0%
Venue Goals Mean0.51
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std0.22
History Matches-15
Conceded Mean-0.35
Conceded Std-0.51
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Conceded 2+ rate-0.15
Conceded 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Conceded Mean-0.74
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std-1.40
History Matches-15
Result entropy0.04
Goal Difference Std-0.08
Stability score-4.16
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.95
Eligible Matches-14
Lead Matches8
Lead Win Rate10.5%
Lead Points Retention0.12
Trailing Matches-8
Non-loss rate7.7%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-14
First Half Goals For Mean0.41
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.01
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.03
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.32
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG-0.17
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.17
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.09
Portability PPG Range-0.18
Portability Score14.37
Rest days1.81
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-5
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.50
Long Rest History Matches-10
Long Rest Points Per Match0.22
Current Team ELO55.17
Current Opponent ELO-55.17
Current ELO Difference110.3
Expected score0.16
History Matches-15
Residual Mean0.05
Overperformance3.72
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.00

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Arminia II

W
Arminia II2–1Maaslingen25 Oct · home
Pick: Arminia II 46% · hit
W
Victoria Clarholz1–3Arminia II18 Oct · away
Pick: Arminia II 40% · hit
D
Westfalia Kinderhaus1–1Arminia II4 Oct · away
Pick: Westfalia Kinderhaus 42% · missed
L
Arminia II0–1Lippstadt 0830 Aug · home
Pick: Arminia II 44% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Verl II

W
Verl II3–0Victoria Clarholz25 Oct · home
Pick: Verl II 49% · hit
L
Preußen Münster II1–0Verl II18 Oct · away
Pick: Preußen Münster II 51% · hit
L
Erkenschwick4–1Verl II4 Oct · away
Pick: Erkenschwick 44% · hit
W
Verl II1–0Schermbeck30 Aug · home
Pick: Verl II 52% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Arminia II and Verl II meet in Oberliga - Westfalen on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Arminia II win 37.8%, draw 27.2%, Verl II win 35.0%. The pick is Arminia II win. Over 2.5 goals: 62.1%. Both teams to score: 61.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.