ScoreProb
III Liga - Group 1 Poland Group I - 16 2026

Widzew II vs ŁKS Łódź II

Widzew II Home · Elo 1,529
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
ŁKS Łódź II Away · Elo 1,392
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Widzew II win
Widzew II winPick
61.2%
Draw
18.4%
ŁKS Łódź II win
20.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes59.4%
No40.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.570.6%
Under 2.529.4%

How much we know

Widzew II history43 matches
ŁKS Łódź II history62 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 2 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 11:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (61.2%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Widzew II are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Widzew II are rated 137 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,529 against 1,392. On rating alone Widzew II would be expected to take 69% of the points on offer.

  • Widzew II score far more

    2.05 goals a game over 43 matches for Widzew II, against 1.03 over 62 for ŁKS Łódź II.

  • Defences are close

    Widzew II concede 1.86 a game, ŁKS Łódź II 1.74.

  • Widzew II games more often go over 2.5 goals

    74% of Widzew II matches, against 53% for ŁKS Łódź II. The model puts this match at 71% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Widzew II
ŁKS Łódź II
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1529.4
ELO
1392.2
43
ELO · Matches
62
1529.4
Current Team ELO
1392.2
1392.2
Current Opponent ELO
1529.4
137.3
Current ELO Difference
-137.3
0.69
Expected score
0.31
43
History Matches
62
0.04
Residual Mean
-0.09
52.49
Overperformance
43.06
0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.24
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
0.00
2.20
Goals for per game
1.00
0.60
Goals against per game
2.40
60.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
0.30
2.00
Goals for per game
1.00
1.70
Goals against per game
2.00
50.0%
Win rate
10.0%
2.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
1.90
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.10
1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.00
1.55
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.89
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.30
2.72
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.10
Overall performance9 signals
90
43
Matches
62
1.56
PPG
0.84
48.8%
Win rate
19.4%
9.3%
Draw rate
25.8%
41.9%
Loss rate
54.8%
90.7%
Over 1.5 rate
79.0%
74.4%
Over 2.5 rate
53.2%
53.5%
Over 3.5 rate
35.5%
2.76
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.66
Venue performance10 signals
100
22
Matches
34
1.45
PPG
0.71
45.5%
Win rate
14.7%
9.1%
Draw rate
26.5%
45.5%
Loss rate
58.8%
95.5%
Over 1.5 rate
73.5%
77.3%
Over 2.5 rate
52.9%
59.1%
Over 3.5 rate
32.4%
3.18
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.36
22
History Matches
34
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.05
Goals for per game
1.03
76.7%
Scoring rate
66.1%
58.1%
BTTS rate
54.8%
2.14
Goals for per game
0.94
72.7%
Scoring rate
64.7%
50.0%
BTTS rate
58.8%
2.20
Goals for per game
0.80
60.0%
Scoring rate
40.0%
40.0%
BTTS rate
40.0%
43
History Matches
62
2.05
Goals Mean
1.03
1.67
Goals Std
0.97
76.7%
Scored 1+ rate
66.1%
55.8%
Scored 2+ rate
27.4%
39.5%
Scored 3+ rate
8.1%
2.14
Venue Goals Mean
0.94
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.86
Goals against per game
1.74
79.1%
Conceding rate
82.3%
1.86
Goals against per game
1.76
72.7%
Conceding rate
88.2%
0.60
Goals against per game
2.20
60.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
43
History Matches
62
1.86
Conceded Mean
1.74
1.72
Conceded Std
1.27
46.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
51.6%
25.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
27.4%
1.86
Venue Conceded Mean
1.76
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
20.9%
Clean-sheet rate
17.7%
23.3%
Failed-to-score rate
33.9%
27.3%
Clean-sheet rate
11.8%
27.3%
Failed-to-score rate
35.3%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
40.0%
Failed-to-score rate
60.0%
20.9%
Clean-sheet rate
17.7%
23.3%
Failed-to-score rate
33.9%
27.3%
Clean-sheet rate
11.8%
27.3%
Failed-to-score rate
35.3%
20.9%
Clean-sheet rate
17.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
43
History Matches
62
0.85
Result entropy
0.91
2.76
Goal Difference Std
1.66
14.85
Stability score
9.26
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
43
Eligible Matches
61
18
Lead Matches
9
88.9%
Lead Win Rate
66.7%
0.89
Lead Points Retention
0.74
13
Trailing Matches
26
7.7%
Non-loss rate
11.5%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
43
Halftime Coverage Matches
61
1.14
First Half Goals For Mean
0.33
0.77
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.82
0.91
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.72
1.09
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.89
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
76.88
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
3
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
25
Normal Rest History Matches
32
1.56
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.75
16
Long Rest History Matches
26
1.56
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.08
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
0.00
60.0%
Win rate
0.0%
20.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
20.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
60.0%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
40.0%
Over 2.5 rate
40.0%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
20.0%
1.85
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.49
5
Current Competition Matches
5
2.00
Current Competition PPG
0.00
1.60
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.40
3
Competition Season Count
7
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.52
Portability PPG Std
0.58
1.25
Portability PPG Range
1.50
49.01
Portability Score
46.45
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
43
Clean History Matches
62
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO137.3
PPG0.72
GF1.01
GA0.12
PPG2.00
PPG0.75
PPG2.00
PPG1.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-19
Clean-sheet rate3.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.11
History Matches-12
Clean-sheet rate15.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.08
History Matches-19
Goals Mean1.01
Goals Std0.70
Scored 1+ rate10.6%
Scored 2+ rate28.4%
Scored 3+ rate31.5%
Venue Goals Mean1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std0.80
History Matches-19
Conceded Mean0.12
Conceded Std0.45
Clean-sheet rate3.2%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.05
Conceded 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.66
History Matches-19
Result entropy-0.06
Goal Difference Std1.10
Stability score5.59
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.56
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.63
Eligible Matches-18
Lead Matches9
Lead Win Rate22.2%
Lead Points Retention0.15
Trailing Matches-13
Non-loss rate-0.04
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-18
First Half Goals For Mean0.81
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.05
Second Half Goals For Mean0.19
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.21
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean3.00
Competition Season Count-4
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.06
Portability PPG Range-0.25
Portability Score2.56
Rest days0.17
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Short Rest Points Per Match0.00
Normal Rest History Matches-7
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.81
Long Rest History Matches-10
Long Rest Points Per Match0.49
Current Team ELO137.3
Current Opponent ELO-137.3
Current ELO Difference274.5
Expected score0.38
History Matches-19
Residual Mean0.13
Overperformance9.42
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.25

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Widzew II

W
Mławianka Mława1–4Widzew II31 Oct · away
Pick: Widzew II 45% · hit
D
Widzew II2–2Łomża25 Oct · home
Pick: Widzew II 46% · missed
L
Widzew II0–1Warta Sieradz21 Oct · home
Pick: Widzew II 46% · missed
D
Lechia T. Mazowiecki1–1Widzew II18 Oct · away
Pick: Lechia T. Mazowiecki 42% · missed
W
Olimpia Zambrów3–4Widzew II30 Aug · away
Pick: Widzew II 48% · hit

ŁKS Łódź II

W
ŁKS Łódź II3–2Olimpia Zambrów31 Oct · home
Pick: Olimpia Zambrów 45% · missed
L
Polonia Lidzbark Warm.3–0ŁKS Łódź II24 Oct · away
Pick: Polonia Lidzbark Warm. 41% · hit
D
ŁKS Łódź II1–1Olimpia Elbląg17 Oct · home
Pick: Olimpia Elbląg 49% · missed
L
ŁKS Łódź II0–3Ząbkovia Ząbki14 Oct · home
Pick: Ząbkovia Ząbki 43% · hit
W
ŁKS Łódź II4–3Łomża30 Aug · home
Pick: Łomża 42% · missed

About this match

Widzew II and ŁKS Łódź II meet in III Liga - Group 1 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 11:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Widzew II win 61.2%, draw 18.4%, ŁKS Łódź II win 20.4%. The pick is Widzew II win. Over 2.5 goals: 70.6%. Both teams to score: 59.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.