ScoreProb
FA Cup England 1/128-finals 2026

Wimborne Town vs Crawley Town

Wimborne Town Home · Elo 1,477
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Crawley Town Away · Elo 1,430
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Crawley Town win
Wimborne Town win
34.9%
Draw
27.0%
Crawley Town winPick
38.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes53.4%
No46.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.555.4%
Under 2.544.6%

How much we know

Wimborne Town history73 matches
Crawley Town history84 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (38.1%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Crawley Town are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Wimborne Town are rated 47 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,477 against 1,430. On rating alone Wimborne Town would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.37 goals a game over 73 matches for Wimborne Town, against 1.25 over 84 for Crawley Town.

  • Wimborne Town concede fewer

    Wimborne Town concede 1.30 a game, Crawley Town 1.56.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    48% of Wimborne Town matches, against 54% for Crawley Town. The model puts this match at 55% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Wimborne Town
Crawley Town
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1477.0
ELO
1429.8
73
ELO · Matches
84
1477.0
Current Team ELO
1429.8
1429.8
Current Opponent ELO
1477.0
47.19
Current ELO Difference
-47.19
0.57
Expected score
0.43
73
History Matches
84
-0.01
Residual Mean
-0.04
49.40
Overperformance
46.49
-0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.08
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
1.20
1.00
Goals for per game
0.80
1.00
Goals against per game
0.80
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
1.20
1.70
Goals for per game
0.90
1.40
Goals against per game
1.00
20.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.90
1.79
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.04
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
1.02
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.10
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
2.33
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.14
Overall performance9 signals
90
73
Matches
84
1.36
PPG
1.02
34.2%
Win rate
26.2%
32.9%
Draw rate
23.8%
32.9%
Loss rate
50.0%
76.7%
Over 1.5 rate
76.2%
47.9%
Over 2.5 rate
53.6%
24.7%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.76
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.86
Venue performance10 signals
100
40
Matches
44
1.58
PPG
0.98
42.5%
Win rate
27.3%
30.0%
Draw rate
15.9%
27.5%
Loss rate
56.8%
70.0%
Over 1.5 rate
70.5%
45.0%
Over 2.5 rate
61.4%
22.5%
Over 3.5 rate
43.2%
1.46
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.08
40
History Matches
44
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.37
Goals for per game
1.25
76.7%
Scoring rate
69.0%
56.2%
BTTS rate
52.4%
1.38
Goals for per game
1.27
82.5%
Scoring rate
65.9%
57.5%
BTTS rate
47.7%
73
History Matches
84
1.37
Goals Mean
1.25
1.23
Goals Std
1.27
76.7%
Scored 1+ rate
69.0%
34.2%
Scored 2+ rate
29.8%
16.4%
Scored 3+ rate
15.5%
1.38
Venue Goals Mean
1.27
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.30
Goals against per game
1.56
75.3%
Conceding rate
76.2%
1.13
Goals against per game
1.75
72.5%
Conceding rate
72.7%
73
History Matches
84
1.30
Conceded Mean
1.56
1.11
Conceded Std
1.26
35.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
46.4%
13.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
25.0%
1.13
Venue Conceded Mean
1.75
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
24.7%
Clean-sheet rate
23.8%
23.3%
Failed-to-score rate
31.0%
27.5%
Clean-sheet rate
27.3%
17.5%
Failed-to-score rate
34.1%
24.7%
Clean-sheet rate
23.8%
23.3%
Failed-to-score rate
31.0%
27.5%
Clean-sheet rate
27.3%
17.5%
Failed-to-score rate
34.1%
24.7%
Clean-sheet rate
23.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
73
History Matches
84
1.00
Result entropy
0.95
1.76
Goal Difference Std
1.86
0.02
Stability score
5.41
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
73
Eligible Matches
84
22
Lead Matches
18
59.1%
Lead Win Rate
77.8%
0.70
Lead Points Retention
0.85
23
Trailing Matches
26
39.1%
Non-loss rate
15.4%
13.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
73
Halftime Coverage Matches
84
0.58
First Half Goals For Mean
0.48
0.53
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.64
0.79
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.77
0.77
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.92
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
78.04
Rest days
78.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
5
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.20
61
Normal Rest History Matches
71
1.36
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.99
6
Long Rest History Matches
7
1.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
7
Competition Season Count
9
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.41
Portability PPG Std
0.33
1.00
Portability PPG Range
0.93
55.25
Portability Score
60.22
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
73
Clean History Matches
84
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO47.19
PPG0.33
GF0.12
GA-0.26
PPG0.60
PPG-0.20
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-11
Clean-sheet rate0.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.08
History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate0.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.17
History Matches-11
Goals Mean0.12
Goals Std-0.04
Scored 1+ rate7.7%
Scored 2+ rate4.5%
Scored 3+ rate1.0%
Venue Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std0.75
History Matches-11
Conceded Mean-0.26
Conceded Std-0.15
Clean-sheet rate0.8%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.11
Conceded 3+ rate-0.11
Venue Conceded Mean-0.63
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.08
History Matches-11
Result entropy0.05
Goal Difference Std-0.10
Stability score-5.40
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.03
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.19
Eligible Matches-11
Lead Matches4
Lead Win Rate-0.19
Lead Points Retention-0.15
Trailing Matches-3
Non-loss rate23.7%
Trailing Win Rate13.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-11
First Half Goals For Mean0.10
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.11
Second Half Goals For Mean0.02
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.15
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.07
Portability PPG Range0.07
Portability Score-4.97
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match0.80
Normal Rest History Matches-10
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.37
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.00
Current Team ELO47.19
Current Opponent ELO-47.19
Current ELO Difference94.38
Expected score0.13
History Matches-11
Residual Mean0.04
Overperformance2.91
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.12

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Wimborne Town

W
Wimborne Town2–0Chippenham Town31 Oct · home
Pick: Wimborne Town 51% · hit
D
Yate Town0–0Wimborne Town27 Oct · away
Pick: Yate Town 48% · missed
W
Taunton Town1–4Wimborne Town24 Oct · away
Pick: Taunton Town 38% · missed
W
Wimborne Town3–0Gosport Borough20 Oct · home
Pick: Wimborne Town 49% · hit
W
Wimborne Town1–0Chelmsford City17 Oct · home
Pick: Chelmsford City 42% · missed

Crawley Town

W
Oldham0–1Crawley Town31 Oct · away
Pick: Oldham 50% · missed
D
Crawley Town1–1Tranmere24 Oct · home
Pick: Crawley Town 41% · missed
L
Crawley Town2–3Shrewsbury20 Oct · home
Pick: Crawley Town 55% · missed
L
Salford City2–1Crawley Town17 Oct · away
Pick: Salford City 44% · hit
W
Crawley Town4–0Bromley6 Oct · home
Pick: Bromley 38% · missed

About this match

Wimborne Town and Crawley Town meet in FA Cup on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Wimborne Town win 34.9%, draw 27.0%, Crawley Town win 38.1%. The pick is Crawley Town win. Over 2.5 goals: 55.4%. Both teams to score: 53.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.