Yarmouk vs Sporty
What we said before kickoff Result: Yarmouk win
Yarmouk winPick Result
59.3%
Draw
19.6%
Sporty win
21.1%
How our picks did
Settled automatically from the final score. Every miss stays on the record.
Match result
Our pickYarmouk win · 59.3%
What happenedYarmouk win · we gave it 59.3%
Hit Over 2.5 goals
Our pickOver · 64.7%
What happenedOver · 11 goals
Hit Both teams to score
Our pickNo · 52.0%
What happenedNo · 11–0
Hit How surprising was it?
Result: Yarmouk win. In our numbers it ranked first of the three.
59%
chance we gave it0%50%100%
1 in 1.7
on average A pick at 59% is expected to miss about 4 times in 10. One match does not judge a model. The record across every settled match does.
See the full record
Both teams to score
Yes48.0%
No52.0%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.564.7%
Under 2.535.3%
How much we know
Yarmouk history33 matches
Sporty history18 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your calls on this match
Made on this device before kickoff, compared with the result.
Life of this match
Every step is time-stamped, from first prediction to settled result.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead29 Oct · 08:38 UTC
- Re-published 16 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
- Kickoff4 Nov · 14:30 UTC
- Full time: 11–0All three of our picks hit
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically from the final score.5 Nov · 03:19 UTC
Share this result
A picture made for this match: teams, our probabilities and the verified stamp. Works in chats and on social.
The card keeps the pre-match numbers. A miss is shared as plainly as a hit.
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,274 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,668
40–49% Won 45.5% · said 44.8% · n 6,228
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,755
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,872
70–79% Won 76.3% · said 73.9% · n 587
80%+ Won 83.5% · said 84.5% · n 164
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (59.3%). Picks in that band won 55.7% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,755 matches.
Why Yarmouk are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Yarmouk are rated 127 Elo points higher
Elo 1,513 against 1,386. On rating alone Yarmouk would be expected to take 68% of the points on offer.
-
Yarmouk score far more
1.58 goals a game over 33 matches for Yarmouk, against 0.56 over 18 for Sporty.
-
Yarmouk concede fewer
Yarmouk concede 1.45 a game, Sporty 2.22.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
58% of Yarmouk matches, against 61% for Sporty. The model puts this match at 65% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 18 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Sporty@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1513.1
ELO
1385.8
33
ELO · Matches
18
1513.1
Current Team ELO
1385.8
1385.8
Current Opponent ELO
1513.1
127.2
Current ELO Difference
-127.2
0.68
Expected score
0.32
33
History Matches
18
0.01
Residual Mean
-0.31
50.73
Overperformance
35.09
-0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.19
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
0.60
1.40
Goals for per game
0.80
0.80
Goals against per game
3.20
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
0.60
1.60
Goals for per game
0.70
1.40
Goals against per game
2.30
30.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.70
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.19
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.30
1.02
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.27
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.46
1.40
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.74
Overall performance9 signals 90
33
Matches
18
1.45
PPG
0.33
42.4%
Win rate
11.1%
18.2%
Draw rate
0.0%
39.4%
Loss rate
88.9%
78.8%
Over 1.5 rate
83.3%
57.6%
Over 2.5 rate
61.1%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
11.1%
2.25
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.41
Venue performance10 signals 100
15
Matches
9
1.53
PPG
0.67
40.0%
Win rate
22.2%
33.3%
Draw rate
0.0%
26.7%
Loss rate
77.8%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
77.8%
46.7%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
26.7%
Over 3.5 rate
11.1%
1.74
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.49
15
History Matches
9
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.58
Goals for per game
0.56
72.7%
Scoring rate
38.9%
48.5%
BTTS rate
33.3%
1.40
Goals for per game
0.78
66.7%
Scoring rate
44.4%
40.0%
BTTS rate
33.3%
33
History Matches
18
1.58
Goals Mean
0.56
1.46
Goals Std
0.96
72.7%
Scored 1+ rate
38.9%
48.5%
Scored 2+ rate
5.6%
24.2%
Scored 3+ rate
5.6%
1.40
Venue Goals Mean
0.78
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.45
Goals against per game
2.22
69.7%
Conceding rate
94.4%
1.07
Goals against per game
2.11
60.0%
Conceding rate
88.9%
33
History Matches
18
1.45
Conceded Mean
2.22
1.48
Conceded Std
1.03
39.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
83.3%
18.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
33.3%
1.07
Venue Conceded Mean
2.11
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
30.3%
Clean-sheet rate
5.6%
27.3%
Failed-to-score rate
61.1%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
11.1%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
55.6%
30.3%
Clean-sheet rate
5.6%
27.3%
Failed-to-score rate
61.1%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
11.1%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
55.6%
30.3%
Clean-sheet rate
5.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
33
History Matches
18
0.95
Result entropy
0.32
2.25
Goal Difference Std
1.41
5.27
Stability score
68.25
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
30
Eligible Matches
10
9
Lead Matches
0
88.9%
Lead Win Rate
—
0.93
Lead Points Retention
—
5
Trailing Matches
7
20.0%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
30
Halftime Coverage Matches
10
0.77
First Half Goals For Mean
0.10
0.50
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.00
0.83
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.30
0.97
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.00
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
78.96
Rest days
78.89
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
2
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.50
10
Normal Rest History Matches
6
2.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.00
21
Long Rest History Matches
9
1.29
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.33
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
6
Competition Season Count
1
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.56
Portability PPG Std
—
1.11
Portability PPG Range
—
47.37
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
33
Clean History Matches
18
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreLead Win RateLead Points RetentionCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
ELO127.2
PPG1.12
GF1.02
GA-0.77
PPG0.87
PPG1.00
PPG0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches15
Clean-sheet rate24.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.34
History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate28.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.22
History Matches15
Goals Mean1.02
Goals Std0.50
Scored 1+ rate33.8%
Scored 2+ rate42.9%
Scored 3+ rate18.7%
Venue Goals Mean0.62
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std0.01
History Matches15
Conceded Mean-0.77
Conceded Std0.45
Clean-sheet rate24.7%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.44
Conceded 3+ rate-0.15
Venue Conceded Mean-1.04
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.25
History Matches15
Result entropy0.63
Goal Difference Std0.84
Stability score-62.98
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.54
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.34
Eligible Matches20
Lead Matches9
Trailing Matches-2
Non-loss rate20.0%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches20
First Half Goals For Mean0.67
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.50
Second Half Goals For Mean0.53
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.03
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count5
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Rest days0.07
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.50
Normal Rest History Matches4
Normal Rest Points Per Match2.00
Long Rest History Matches12
Long Rest Points Per Match0.95
Current Team ELO127.2
Current Opponent ELO-127.2
Current ELO Difference254.4
Expected score0.35
History Matches15
Residual Mean0.33
Overperformance15.64
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.13
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Yarmouk
W
Shamiya0–3Yarmouk24 Oct · away
Pick: Yarmouk 68% · hit D
Yarmouk0–0Burgan14 Oct · home
Pick: Yarmouk 45% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
Sporty
L
Sporty0–6Al Jazira24 Oct · home
Pick: Al Jazira 59% · hit L
Ittihad Al-Shorta2–1Sporty14 Oct · away
Pick: Ittihad Al-Shorta 42% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
Match report
Yarmouk and Sporty finished 11–0 in Division 1 on Wednesday 4 November 2026. It was 4–0 at half time. ScoreProb published its prediction on 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC, before kickoff: Yarmouk win 59.3%, draw 19.6%, Sporty win 21.1%. All three picks hit.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.