ScoreProb
1. Liga Promotion Switzerland Round 15 2026

Young Boys II vs Bellinzona

Young Boys II Home · Elo 1,504
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Bellinzona Away · Elo 1,367
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Young Boys II win
Young Boys II winPick
49.0%
Draw
23.9%
Bellinzona win
27.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes58.2%
No41.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.568.9%
Under 2.531.1%

How much we know

Young Boys II history55 matches
Bellinzona history62 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (49.0%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Young Boys II are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Young Boys II are rated 137 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,504 against 1,367. On rating alone Young Boys II would be expected to take 69% of the points on offer.

  • Young Boys II score far more

    1.76 goals a game over 55 matches for Young Boys II, against 1.13 over 62 for Bellinzona.

  • Young Boys II concede fewer

    Young Boys II concede 1.55 a game, Bellinzona 2.00.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    56% of Young Boys II matches, against 60% for Bellinzona. The model puts this match at 69% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Young Boys II
Bellinzona
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1504.3
ELO
1367.1
55
ELO · Matches
62
1504.3
Current Team ELO
1367.1
1367.1
Current Opponent ELO
1504.3
137.3
Current ELO Difference
-137.3
0.69
Expected score
0.31
55
History Matches
62
0.00
Residual Mean
-0.11
49.84
Overperformance
41.87
-0.15
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.28
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
0.00
1.40
Goals for per game
0.60
2.80
Goals against per game
2.20
20.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
0.10
2.20
Goals for per game
1.00
2.30
Goals against per game
2.80
30.0%
Win rate
0.0%
2.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
1.78
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.89
2.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.80
1.55
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.33
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.30
2.62
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.33
Overall performance9 signals
90
55
Matches
62
1.44
PPG
0.76
40.0%
Win rate
17.7%
23.6%
Draw rate
22.6%
36.4%
Loss rate
59.7%
78.2%
Over 1.5 rate
80.6%
56.4%
Over 2.5 rate
59.7%
45.5%
Over 3.5 rate
41.9%
1.82
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.24
Venue performance10 signals
100
26
Matches
32
1.62
PPG
0.44
46.2%
Win rate
6.3%
23.1%
Draw rate
25.0%
30.8%
Loss rate
68.8%
84.6%
Over 1.5 rate
81.3%
57.7%
Over 2.5 rate
62.5%
46.2%
Over 3.5 rate
46.9%
1.75
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.04
26
History Matches
32
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.76
Goals for per game
1.13
72.7%
Scoring rate
56.5%
61.8%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.85
Goals for per game
0.97
76.9%
Scoring rate
59.4%
69.2%
BTTS rate
56.3%
2.33
Goals for per game
0.50
100.0%
Scoring rate
25.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
25.0%
55
History Matches
62
1.76
Goals Mean
1.13
1.58
Goals Std
1.31
72.7%
Scored 1+ rate
56.5%
45.5%
Scored 2+ rate
32.3%
34.5%
Scored 3+ rate
14.5%
1.85
Venue Goals Mean
0.97
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.55
Goals against per game
2.00
81.8%
Conceding rate
87.1%
1.50
Goals against per game
2.31
88.5%
Conceding rate
93.8%
3.00
Goals against per game
1.75
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
55
History Matches
62
1.55
Conceded Mean
2.00
1.13
Conceded Std
1.55
49.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
53.2%
16.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
32.3%
1.50
Venue Conceded Mean
2.31
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
18.2%
Clean-sheet rate
12.9%
27.3%
Failed-to-score rate
43.5%
11.5%
Clean-sheet rate
6.3%
23.1%
Failed-to-score rate
40.6%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
75.0%
18.2%
Clean-sheet rate
12.9%
27.3%
Failed-to-score rate
43.5%
11.5%
Clean-sheet rate
6.3%
23.1%
Failed-to-score rate
40.6%
18.2%
Clean-sheet rate
12.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
55
History Matches
62
0.98
Result entropy
0.87
1.82
Goal Difference Std
2.24
2.12
Stability score
13.45
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
55
Eligible Matches
62
15
Lead Matches
12
86.7%
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
0.87
Lead Points Retention
0.81
15
Trailing Matches
26
26.7%
Non-loss rate
7.7%
6.7%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
55
Halftime Coverage Matches
62
0.84
First Half Goals For Mean
0.53
0.69
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.87
0.93
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.60
0.85
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.13
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
80.81
Rest days
77.98
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
4
0.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
27
Normal Rest History Matches
37
1.48
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.84
24
Long Rest History Matches
20
1.54
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.60
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
4
1.00
PPG
0.00
33.3%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
66.7%
Loss rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
25.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.89
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.43
3
Current Competition Matches
4
1.00
Current Competition PPG
0.00
-0.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.25
4
Competition Season Count
7
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.28
Portability PPG Std
0.48
0.59
Portability PPG Range
1.18
64.33
Portability Score
50.97
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
55
Clean History Matches
62
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO137.3
PPG0.68
GF0.63
GA-0.45
PPG1.00
PPG1.18
PPG0.60
PPG1.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-7
Clean-sheet rate5.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.16
History Matches-6
Clean-sheet rate5.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.18
History Matches-7
Goals Mean0.63
Goals Std0.27
Scored 1+ rate16.3%
Scored 2+ rate13.2%
Scored 3+ rate20.0%
Venue Goals Mean0.88
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.88
History Matches-7
Conceded Mean-0.45
Conceded Std-0.42
Clean-sheet rate5.3%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.04
Conceded 3+ rate-0.16
Venue Conceded Mean-0.81
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.23
History Matches-7
Result entropy0.11
Goal Difference Std-0.42
Stability score-11.32
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.64
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.30
Eligible Matches-7
Lead Matches3
Lead Win Rate11.7%
Lead Points Retention0.06
Trailing Matches-11
Non-loss rate19.0%
Trailing Win Rate6.7%
Halftime Coverage Matches-7
First Half Goals For Mean0.30
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.18
Second Half Goals For Mean0.33
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.27
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.58
Competition Season Count-3
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.20
Portability PPG Range-0.59
Portability Score13.35
Rest days2.83
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.67
Normal Rest History Matches-10
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.64
Long Rest History Matches4
Long Rest Points Per Match0.94
Current Team ELO137.3
Current Opponent ELO-137.3
Current ELO Difference274.5
Expected score0.38
History Matches-7
Residual Mean0.11
Overperformance7.98
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.13

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Young Boys II

L
Grand-Saconnex2–1Young Boys II31 Oct · away
Pick: Grand-Saconnex 62% · hit
W
Young Boys II5–2Kreuzlingen25 Oct · home
Pick: Young Boys II 41% · hit
D
Paradiso2–2Young Boys II17 Oct · away
Pick: Paradiso 49% · missed
D
Young Boys II2–2Luzern II30 Aug · home
Pick: Young Boys II 45% · missed
L
Bulle3–0Young Boys II26 Aug · away
Pick: Bulle 64% · hit

Bellinzona

L
Bellinzona0–1Bulle1 Nov · home
Pick: Bulle 69% · hit
D
Lugano II1–1Bellinzona25 Oct · away
Pick: Lugano II 43% · missed
W
Bellinzona2–0Brühl21 Oct · home
Pick: Brühl 68% · missed
L
Bellinzona0–4Zürich II4 Oct · home
Pick: Zürich II 50% · hit
D
Cham1–1Bellinzona29 Aug · away
Pick: Cham 64% · missed

About this match

Young Boys II and Bellinzona meet in 1. Liga Promotion on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Young Boys II win 49.0%, draw 23.9%, Bellinzona win 27.1%. The pick is Young Boys II win. Over 2.5 goals: 68.9%. Both teams to score: 58.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.