ScoreProb
II Liga - East Poland Round 15 2026

Zawisza Bydgoszcz vs Tychy 71

Zawisza Bydgoszcz Home · Elo 1,679
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Tychy 71 Away · Elo 1,508
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Zawisza Bydgoszcz win
Zawisza Bydgoszcz winPick
45.3%
Draw
30.3%
Tychy 71 win
24.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes53.6%
No46.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.556.5%
Under 2.543.5%

How much we know

Zawisza Bydgoszcz history65 matches
Tychy 71 history75 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 18:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (45.3%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Zawisza Bydgoszcz are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Zawisza Bydgoszcz are rated 171 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,679 against 1,508. On rating alone Zawisza Bydgoszcz would be expected to take 73% of the points on offer.

  • Zawisza Bydgoszcz score more

    2.02 goals a game over 65 matches for Zawisza Bydgoszcz, against 1.51 over 75 for Tychy 71.

  • Zawisza Bydgoszcz concede fewer

    Zawisza Bydgoszcz concede 0.80 a game, Tychy 71 1.64.

  • Tychy 71 games more often go over 2.5 goals

    49% of Zawisza Bydgoszcz matches, against 61% for Tychy 71. The model puts this match at 57% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Zawisza Bydgoszcz
Tychy 71
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1679.4
ELO
1507.9
65
ELO · Matches
75
1679.4
Current Team ELO
1507.9
1507.9
Current Opponent ELO
1679.4
171.5
Current ELO Difference
-171.5
0.73
Expected score
0.27
65
History Matches
75
0.16
Residual Mean
0.01
61.92
Overperformance
51.07
0.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.34
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
2.20
1.60
Goals for per game
1.80
1.20
Goals against per game
0.80
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
2.20
PPG
2.00
1.70
Goals for per game
1.70
1.10
Goals against per game
1.00
70.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.70
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.64
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
1.04
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.77
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.63
1.56
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.90
Overall performance9 signals
90
65
Matches
75
2.25
PPG
1.41
70.8%
Win rate
38.7%
12.3%
Draw rate
25.3%
16.9%
Loss rate
36.0%
76.9%
Over 1.5 rate
78.7%
49.2%
Over 2.5 rate
61.3%
26.2%
Over 3.5 rate
41.3%
1.75
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.76
Venue performance10 signals
100
40
Matches
34
2.35
PPG
1.35
75.0%
Win rate
38.2%
10.0%
Draw rate
20.6%
15.0%
Loss rate
41.2%
77.5%
Over 1.5 rate
70.6%
47.5%
Over 2.5 rate
61.8%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
38.2%
1.78
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.81
40
History Matches
34
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.02
Goals for per game
1.51
89.2%
Scoring rate
78.7%
43.1%
BTTS rate
64.0%
2.03
Goals for per game
1.29
90.0%
Scoring rate
73.5%
37.5%
BTTS rate
58.8%
1.60
Goals for per game
1.80
80.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
60.0%
BTTS rate
60.0%
65
History Matches
75
2.02
Goals Mean
1.51
1.44
Goals Std
1.15
89.2%
Scored 1+ rate
78.7%
56.9%
Scored 2+ rate
46.7%
30.8%
Scored 3+ rate
20.0%
2.03
Venue Goals Mean
1.29
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.80
Goals against per game
1.64
52.3%
Conceding rate
80.0%
0.65
Goals against per game
1.59
47.5%
Conceding rate
76.5%
1.20
Goals against per game
0.80
80.0%
Conceding rate
60.0%
65
History Matches
75
0.80
Conceded Mean
1.64
0.93
Conceded Std
1.44
21.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
46.7%
4.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
20.0%
0.65
Venue Conceded Mean
1.59
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
47.7%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
10.8%
Failed-to-score rate
21.3%
52.5%
Clean-sheet rate
23.5%
10.0%
Failed-to-score rate
26.5%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
47.7%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
10.8%
Failed-to-score rate
21.3%
52.5%
Clean-sheet rate
23.5%
10.0%
Failed-to-score rate
26.5%
47.7%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
65
History Matches
75
0.73
Result entropy
0.99
1.75
Goal Difference Std
1.76
26.89
Stability score
1.42
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
65
Eligible Matches
72
35
Lead Matches
18
94.3%
Lead Win Rate
83.3%
0.96
Lead Points Retention
0.89
9
Trailing Matches
23
33.3%
Non-loss rate
26.1%
11.1%
Trailing Win Rate
4.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
65
Halftime Coverage Matches
72
1.00
First Half Goals For Mean
0.63
0.43
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.81
1.02
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.89
0.37
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.88
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
78.31
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
6
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.67
39
Normal Rest History Matches
34
2.28
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.50
21
Long Rest History Matches
34
2.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.29
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
2.20
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
20.0%
Draw rate
40.0%
20.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
20.0%
1.96
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.10
5
Current Competition Matches
5
2.00
Current Competition PPG
2.20
0.40
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.00
6
Competition Season Count
7
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.16
Portability PPG Std
0.57
0.39
Portability PPG Range
1.52
75.88
Portability Score
46.76
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
65
Clean History Matches
75
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO171.5
PPG0.83
GF0.51
GA-0.84
PPG-0.20
PPG1.00
PPG-0.20
PPG0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-10
Clean-sheet rate27.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.11
History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate29.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.16
History Matches-10
Goals Mean0.51
Goals Std0.29
Scored 1+ rate10.6%
Scored 2+ rate10.3%
Scored 3+ rate10.8%
Venue Goals Mean0.73
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std0.36
History Matches-10
Conceded Mean-0.84
Conceded Std-0.51
Clean-sheet rate27.7%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.25
Conceded 3+ rate-0.15
Venue Conceded Mean-0.94
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.27
History Matches-10
Result entropy-0.25
Goal Difference Std-0.01
Stability score25.48
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.66
Eligible Matches-7
Lead Matches17
Lead Win Rate11.0%
Lead Points Retention0.07
Trailing Matches-14
Non-loss rate7.2%
Trailing Win Rate6.8%
Halftime Coverage Matches-7
First Half Goals For Mean0.38
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.37
Second Half Goals For Mean0.13
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.51
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.20
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.60
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.41
Portability PPG Range-1.13
Portability Score29.12
Rest days1.27
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Short Rest Points Per Match1.33
Normal Rest History Matches5
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.78
Long Rest History Matches-13
Long Rest Points Per Match0.71
Current Team ELO171.5
Current Opponent ELO-171.5
Current ELO Difference343.0
Expected score0.46
History Matches-10
Residual Mean0.14
Overperformance10.85
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.26

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Zawisza Bydgoszcz

W
Śląsk Wrocław II0–2Zawisza Bydgoszcz31 Oct · away
Pick: Zawisza Bydgoszcz 45% · hit
W
Zawisza Bydgoszcz4–2Świt Skolwin23 Oct · home
Pick: Zawisza Bydgoszcz 74% · hit
L
Sandecja Nowy Sącz4–3Zawisza Bydgoszcz18 Oct · away
Pick: Sandecja Nowy Sącz 43% · hit
L
Zawisza Bydgoszcz1–2Olimpia Grudziądz4 Oct · home
Pick: Zawisza Bydgoszcz 51% · missed
W
Zawisza Bydgoszcz4–1Legia Warszawa II29 Aug · home
Pick: Zawisza Bydgoszcz 56% · hit

Tychy 71

L
Tychy 711–2Lechia Zielona Góra31 Oct · home
Pick: Tychy 71 46% · missed
D
Tychy 710–0Podhale Nowy Targ25 Oct · home
Pick: Tychy 71 57% · missed
W
Legia Warszawa II1–2Tychy 7117 Oct · away
Pick: Legia Warszawa II 45% · missed
D
Świt Skolwin1–1Tychy 7130 Aug · away
Pick: Tychy 71 50% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Zawisza Bydgoszcz and Tychy 71 meet in II Liga - East on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 18:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Zawisza Bydgoszcz win 45.3%, draw 30.3%, Tychy 71 win 24.4%. The pick is Zawisza Bydgoszcz win. Over 2.5 goals: 56.5%. Both teams to score: 53.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.