ScoreProb
1. Liga Classic - Group 2 Switzerland Group 2 - 13 2026

Zug vs Schötz

Zug Home · Elo 1,474
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Schötz Away · Elo 1,500
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Schötz win
Zug win
36.8%
Draw
20.1%
Schötz winPick
43.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes59.1%
No40.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.568.6%
Under 2.531.4%

How much we know

Zug history45 matches
Schötz history49 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (43.1%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Schötz are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Schötz are rated 26 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,500 against 1,474. On rating alone Schötz would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.

  • Schötz score more

    1.40 goals a game over 45 matches for Zug, against 1.86 over 49 for Schötz.

  • Zug concede fewer

    Zug concede 1.58 a game, Schötz 2.02.

  • Schötz games more often go over 2.5 goals

    58% of Zug matches, against 69% for Schötz. The model puts this match at 69% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Zug
Schötz
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1474.4
ELO
1500.4
45
ELO · Matches
49
1474.4
Current Team ELO
1500.4
1500.4
Current Opponent ELO
1474.4
-26.01
Current ELO Difference
26.01
0.46
Expected score
0.54
45
History Matches
49
-0.03
Residual Mean
0.00
47.77
Overperformance
49.94
-0.25
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.18
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.20
PPG
1.40
1.00
Goals for per game
2.00
2.60
Goals against per game
1.80
0.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
0.70
PPG
1.90
1.40
Goals for per game
2.50
2.30
Goals against per game
1.50
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.50
1.11
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.69
2.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
1.62
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.20
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
2.21
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.05
Overall performance9 signals
90
45
Matches
49
1.40
PPG
1.31
37.8%
Win rate
34.7%
26.7%
Draw rate
26.5%
35.6%
Loss rate
38.8%
75.6%
Over 1.5 rate
87.8%
57.8%
Over 2.5 rate
69.4%
42.2%
Over 3.5 rate
61.2%
2.22
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.29
Venue performance10 signals
100
22
Matches
25
1.50
PPG
1.08
40.9%
Win rate
24.0%
27.3%
Draw rate
36.0%
31.8%
Loss rate
40.0%
68.2%
Over 1.5 rate
88.0%
59.1%
Over 2.5 rate
72.0%
36.4%
Over 3.5 rate
64.0%
2.27
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.05
22
History Matches
25
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.40
Goals for per game
1.86
73.3%
Scoring rate
75.5%
51.1%
BTTS rate
63.3%
1.50
Goals for per game
1.80
63.6%
Scoring rate
72.0%
40.9%
BTTS rate
64.0%
1.00
Goals for per game
0.50
66.7%
Scoring rate
50.0%
66.7%
BTTS rate
0.0%
45
History Matches
49
1.40
Goals Mean
1.86
1.27
Goals Std
1.44
73.3%
Scored 1+ rate
75.5%
37.8%
Scored 2+ rate
57.1%
17.8%
Scored 3+ rate
34.7%
1.50
Venue Goals Mean
1.80
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.58
Goals against per game
2.02
66.7%
Conceding rate
83.7%
1.32
Goals against per game
2.08
59.1%
Conceding rate
88.0%
2.67
Goals against per game
0.50
100.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
45
History Matches
49
1.58
Conceded Mean
2.02
1.57
Conceded Std
1.61
40.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
55.1%
28.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
32.7%
1.32
Venue Conceded Mean
2.08
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
16.3%
26.7%
Failed-to-score rate
24.5%
40.9%
Clean-sheet rate
12.0%
36.4%
Failed-to-score rate
28.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
16.3%
26.7%
Failed-to-score rate
24.5%
40.9%
Clean-sheet rate
12.0%
36.4%
Failed-to-score rate
28.0%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
16.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
45
History Matches
49
0.99
Result entropy
0.99
2.22
Goal Difference Std
2.29
0.98
Stability score
1.09
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
28
Eligible Matches
29
8
Lead Matches
8
87.5%
Lead Win Rate
87.5%
0.92
Lead Points Retention
0.92
5
Trailing Matches
12
0.0%
Non-loss rate
25.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
28
Halftime Coverage Matches
29
0.61
First Half Goals For Mean
0.69
0.43
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.00
0.82
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.14
0.82
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.00
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
3
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
27
Normal Rest History Matches
25
1.26
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.08
17
Long Rest History Matches
20
1.53
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.65
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
2
0.00
PPG
1.50
0.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
0.0%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
66.7%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.94
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.00
3
Current Competition Matches
2
0.00
Current Competition PPG
1.50
-1.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
5
Competition Season Count
5
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.97
Portability PPG Std
0.00
2.75
Portability PPG Range
0.00
33.92
Portability Score
100.0
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
45
Clean History Matches
49
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-26.01
PPG0.09
GF-0.46
GA-0.44
PPG-1.50
PPG0.42
PPG-1.20
PPG-1.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate17.0%
Failed-to-score rate2.2%
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate28.9%
Failed-to-score rate8.4%
History Matches-4
Goals Mean-0.46
Goals Std-0.17
Scored 1+ rate-0.02
Scored 2+ rate-0.19
Scored 3+ rate-0.17
Venue Goals Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.57
History Matches-4
Conceded Mean-0.44
Conceded Std-0.04
Clean-sheet rate17.0%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.15
Conceded 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Conceded Mean-0.76
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.41
History Matches-4
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std-0.06
Stability score-0.11
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.09
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.16
Eligible Matches-1
Lead Matches0
Lead Win Rate0.0%
Lead Points Retention0.00
Trailing Matches-7
Non-loss rate-0.25
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-1
First Half Goals For Mean-0.08
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.57
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.32
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.18
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG-1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.67
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std0.97
Portability PPG Range2.75
Portability Score-66.08
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.18
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.12
Current Team ELO-26.01
Current Opponent ELO26.01
Current ELO Difference-52.01
Expected score-0.07
History Matches-4
Residual Mean-0.03
Overperformance-2.17
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.43

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Zug

L
Thun II6–1Zug31 Oct · away
Pick: Thun II 47% · hit
W
Zug4–2Black Stars24 Oct · home
Pick: Black Stars 45% · missed
L
Gossau1–0Zug17 Oct · away
Pick: Zug 46% · missed
W
Grasshopper II1–2Zug29 Aug · away
Pick: Grasshopper II 68% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Schötz

W
Schötz3–2Solothurn31 Oct · home
Pick: Solothurn 48% · missed
L
Muttenz2–0Schötz24 Oct · away
Pick: Muttenz 48% · hit
L
Tuggen2–1Schötz17 Oct · away
Pick: Tuggen 57% · hit
D
Concordia Basel2–2Schötz29 Aug · away
Pick: Concordia Basel 52% · missed
L
Langenthal3–2Schötz26 Aug · away
Pick: Langenthal 58% · hit

About this match

Zug and Schötz meet in 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Zug win 36.8%, draw 20.1%, Schötz win 43.1%. The pick is Schötz win. Over 2.5 goals: 68.6%. Both teams to score: 59.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.