1. FC Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen
1. FC Köln
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Bayer Leverkusen
Match result probability Model pick: Bayer Leverkusen win
1. FC Köln win
24.1%
Draw
21.5%
Bayer Leverkusen winPick
54.4%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes62.3%
No37.7%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.562.5%
Under 2.537.5%
How much we know
1. FC Köln history58 matches
Bayer Leverkusen history84 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Bayer Leverkusen
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
- Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 13:30 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre8 Nov · 14:30 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (54.4%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.
Why Bayer Leverkusen are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Bayer Leverkusen are rated 139 Elo points higher
Elo 1,661 against 1,522. On rating alone Bayer Leverkusen would be expected to take 69% of the points on offer.
-
Bayer Leverkusen score more
1.62 goals a game over 58 matches for 1. FC Köln, against 1.88 over 84 for Bayer Leverkusen.
-
Bayer Leverkusen concede fewer
1. FC Köln concede 1.53 a game, Bayer Leverkusen 1.26.
-
1. FC Köln games more often go over 2.5 goals
66% of 1. FC Köln matches, against 56% for Bayer Leverkusen. The model puts this match at 62% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
1. FC Köln
Bayer Leverkusen
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1521.8
ELO
1660.7
58
ELO · Matches
84
1521.8
Current Team ELO
1660.7
1660.7
Current Opponent ELO
1521.8
-138.9
Current ELO Difference
138.9
0.31
Expected score
0.69
58
History Matches
84
0.02
Residual Mean
0.09
51.20
Overperformance
57.11
0.14
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.12
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
2.40
3.00
Goals for per game
2.40
1.80
Goals against per game
0.80
60.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
2.20
2.30
Goals for per game
2.80
1.80
Goals against per game
0.90
40.0%
Win rate
70.0%
2.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.80
2.00
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.78
1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.90
1.33
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.94
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
2.97
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.55
Overall performance9 signals 90
58
Matches
84
1.36
PPG
1.75
36.2%
Win rate
50.0%
27.6%
Draw rate
25.0%
36.2%
Loss rate
25.0%
82.8%
Over 1.5 rate
85.7%
65.5%
Over 2.5 rate
56.0%
39.7%
Over 3.5 rate
36.9%
1.90
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.09
Venue performance10 signals 100
28
Matches
45
1.43
PPG
1.76
39.3%
Win rate
51.1%
25.0%
Draw rate
22.2%
35.7%
Loss rate
26.7%
85.7%
Over 1.5 rate
82.2%
71.4%
Over 2.5 rate
57.8%
46.4%
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
1.73
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.01
28
History Matches
45
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.62
Goals for per game
1.88
86.2%
Scoring rate
82.1%
72.4%
BTTS rate
52.4%
1.82
Goals for per game
1.82
92.9%
Scoring rate
80.0%
78.6%
BTTS rate
53.3%
58
History Matches
84
1.62
Goals Mean
1.88
1.35
Goals Std
1.48
86.2%
Scored 1+ rate
82.1%
43.1%
Scored 2+ rate
54.8%
17.2%
Scored 3+ rate
29.8%
1.82
Venue Goals Mean
1.82
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.53
Goals against per game
1.26
86.2%
Conceding rate
65.5%
1.50
Goals against per game
1.36
85.7%
Conceding rate
71.1%
58
History Matches
84
1.53
Conceded Mean
1.26
1.10
Conceded Std
1.32
41.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
35.7%
19.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
15.5%
1.50
Venue Conceded Mean
1.36
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
13.8%
Clean-sheet rate
34.5%
13.8%
Failed-to-score rate
17.9%
14.3%
Clean-sheet rate
28.9%
7.1%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
13.8%
Clean-sheet rate
34.5%
13.8%
Failed-to-score rate
17.9%
14.3%
Clean-sheet rate
28.9%
7.1%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
13.8%
Clean-sheet rate
34.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
58
History Matches
84
0.99
Result entropy
0.95
1.90
Goal Difference Std
2.09
0.70
Stability score
5.36
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
58
Eligible Matches
84
15
Lead Matches
35
80.0%
Lead Win Rate
85.7%
0.87
Lead Points Retention
0.90
15
Trailing Matches
24
26.7%
Non-loss rate
29.2%
13.3%
Trailing Win Rate
12.5%
Goal timing5 signals 50
58
Halftime Coverage Matches
84
0.66
First Half Goals For Mean
0.95
0.64
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.67
0.97
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.93
0.90
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.60
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
75.94
Rest days
78.15
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
13
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.92
29
Normal Rest History Matches
54
1.21
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.59
27
Long Rest History Matches
16
1.41
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.06
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
7
Competition Season Count
9
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
7
0.64
Portability PPG Std
0.45
1.56
Portability PPG Range
1.57
43.96
Portability Score
52.65
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
58
Clean History Matches
84
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-138.9
PPG-0.39
GF-0.26
GA0.27
PPG-0.33
PPG-0.40
PPG-0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-26
Clean-sheet rate-0.21
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches-17
Clean-sheet rate-0.15
Failed-to-score rate-0.13
History Matches-26
Goals Mean-0.26
Goals Std-0.13
Scored 1+ rate4.1%
Scored 2+ rate-0.12
Scored 3+ rate-0.13
Venue Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std0.22
History Matches-26
Conceded Mean0.27
Conceded Std-0.22
Clean-sheet rate-0.21
Conceded 2+ rate5.7%
Conceded 3+ rate3.5%
Venue Conceded Mean0.14
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.38
History Matches-26
Result entropy0.05
Goal Difference Std-0.20
Stability score-4.66
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.26
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.43
Eligible Matches-26
Lead Matches-20
Lead Win Rate-0.06
Lead Points Retention-0.04
Trailing Matches-9
Non-loss rate-0.03
Trailing Win Rate0.8%
Halftime Coverage Matches-26
First Half Goals For Mean-0.30
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.03
Second Half Goals For Mean0.04
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.30
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-4
Portability PPG Std0.19
Portability PPG Range-0.01
Portability Score-8.69
Rest days-2.21
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-12
Short Rest Points Per Match1.08
Normal Rest History Matches-25
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.39
Long Rest History Matches11
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.66
Current Team ELO-138.9
Current Opponent ELO138.9
Current ELO Difference-277.8
Expected score-0.38
History Matches-26
Residual Mean-0.07
Overperformance-5.91
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.02
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
1. FC Köln
D
Union Berlin1–11. FC Köln1 Nov · away
Pick: Union Berlin 51% · missed W
1. FC Köln5–0Union Berlin27 Oct · home
Pick: 1. FC Köln 40% · hit D
1. FC Köln0–0FC Schalke 0424 Oct · home
Pick: FC Schalke 04 44% · missed L
Eintracht Frankfurt1–01. FC Köln16 Oct · away
Pick: Eintracht Frankfurt 60% · hit W
1. FC Köln3–21899 Hoffenheim29 Aug · home
Pick: 1899 Hoffenheim 49% · missed Bayer Leverkusen
L
Bayer Leverkusen2–4VfB Stuttgart31 Oct · home
Pick: VfB Stuttgart 43% · hit W
Bayer Leverkusen5–21. FC Nürnberg28 Oct · home
Pick: Bayer Leverkusen 64% · hit L
1899 Hoffenheim3–0Bayer Leverkusen25 Oct · away
Pick: Bayer Leverkusen 53% · missed W
OFI0–2Bayer Leverkusen22 Oct · away
Pick: Bayer Leverkusen 51% · hit W
Bayer Leverkusen2–1SC Freiburg18 Oct · home
Pick: Bayer Leverkusen 53% · hit About this match
1. FC Köln and Bayer Leverkusen meet in Bundesliga on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 14:30 UTC. The match is played at RheinEnergieStadion, Cologne. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: 1. FC Köln win 24.1%, draw 21.5%, Bayer Leverkusen win 54.4%. The pick is Bayer Leverkusen win. Over 2.5 goals: 62.5%. Both teams to score: 62.3%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.