ScoreProb
Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg Germany Baden-Württemberg - 15 2026

1. FC Muhlhausen vs FC 08 Villingen

1. FC Muhlhausen Home · Elo 1,494
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
FC 08 Villingen Away · Elo 1,517
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: FC 08 Villingen win
1. FC Muhlhausen win
15.6%
Draw
21.9%
FC 08 Villingen winPick
62.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes61.8%
No38.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.578.9%
Under 2.521.1%

How much we know

1. FC Muhlhausen history3 matches
FC 08 Villingen history57 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 13:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (62.5%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why FC 08 Villingen are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,494 against 1,517. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    2.00 goals a game over 3 matches for 1. FC Muhlhausen, against 1.84 over 57 for FC 08 Villingen.

  • FC 08 Villingen concede fewer

    1. FC Muhlhausen concede 3.67 a game, FC 08 Villingen 1.96.

  • 1. FC Muhlhausen games more often go over 2.5 goals

    100% of 1. FC Muhlhausen matches, against 74% for FC 08 Villingen. The model puts this match at 79% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
1. FC Muhlhausen
FC 08 Villingen
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1494.2
ELO
1516.9
3
ELO · Matches
57
1494.2
Current Team ELO
1516.9
1516.9
Current Opponent ELO
1494.2
-22.67
Current ELO Difference
22.67
0.47
Expected score
0.53
3
History Matches
57
-0.13
Residual Mean
0.00
48.35
Overperformance
50.35
-0.13
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.05
Recent form16 signals
160
3
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
1.20
2.00
Goals for per game
2.20
3.67
Goals against per game
2.00
33.3%
Win rate
40.0%
3
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
1.20
2.00
Goals for per game
1.80
3.67
Goals against per game
1.80
33.3%
Win rate
30.0%
2.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
1.41
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.54
3.67
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.80
1.89
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.25
0.58
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
2.87
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.19
Overall performance9 signals
90
3
Matches
57
1.00
PPG
1.33
33.3%
Win rate
36.8%
0.0%
Draw rate
22.8%
66.7%
Loss rate
40.4%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
82.5%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
73.7%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
57.9%
2.87
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.20
Venue performance10 signals
100
1
Matches
32
0.00
PPG
1.34
0.0%
Win rate
37.5%
0.0%
Draw rate
21.9%
100.0%
Loss rate
40.6%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
84.4%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
56.3%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.41
1
History Matches
32
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.00
Goals for per game
1.84
66.7%
Scoring rate
82.5%
66.7%
BTTS rate
68.4%
3.00
Goals for per game
1.81
100.0%
Scoring rate
81.3%
100.0%
BTTS rate
68.8%
2.00
Goals for per game
3.00
66.7%
Scoring rate
100.0%
66.7%
BTTS rate
66.7%
3
History Matches
57
2.00
Goals Mean
1.84
1.41
Goals Std
1.46
66.7%
Scored 1+ rate
82.5%
66.7%
Scored 2+ rate
49.1%
66.7%
Scored 3+ rate
31.6%
3.00
Venue Goals Mean
1.81
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
3.67
Goals against per game
1.96
100.0%
Conceding rate
80.7%
5.00
Goals against per game
1.97
100.0%
Conceding rate
84.4%
3.67
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
66.7%
3
History Matches
57
3.67
Conceded Mean
1.96
1.89
Conceded Std
1.53
66.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
56.1%
66.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
36.8%
5.00
Venue Conceded Mean
1.97
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
19.3%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
17.5%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
15.6%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
18.8%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
19.3%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
17.5%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
15.6%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
18.8%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
19.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
3
History Matches
57
0.58
Result entropy
0.98
2.87
Goal Difference Std
2.20
42.06
Stability score
2.50
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
3
Eligible Matches
56
1
Lead Matches
18
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
61.1%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.69
1
Trailing Matches
23
0.0%
Non-loss rate
26.1%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
8.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
3
Halftime Coverage Matches
56
1.00
First Half Goals For Mean
0.79
1.00
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.95
1.00
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.04
2.67
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.02
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
78.06
Rest days
78.02
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
2
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
1
Normal Rest History Matches
33
3.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.42
1
Long Rest History Matches
21
0.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.05
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
1.00
PPG
2.00
33.3%
Win rate
66.7%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
66.7%
Loss rate
33.3%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
66.7%
2.87
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.45
3
Current Competition Matches
3
1.00
Current Competition PPG
2.00
-1.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
2.00
1
Competition Season Count
5
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
—
Portability PPG Std
0.57
—
Portability PPG Range
1.46
—
Portability Score
46.79
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
3
Clean History Matches
57
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-22.67
PPG-0.33
GF0.16
GA1.70
PPG-1.00
PPG-1.34
PPG-0.20
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-54
Clean-sheet rate-0.19
Failed-to-score rate15.8%
History Matches-31
Clean-sheet rate-0.16
Failed-to-score rate-0.19
History Matches-54
Goals Mean0.16
Goals Std-0.05
Scored 1+ rate-0.16
Scored 2+ rate17.5%
Scored 3+ rate35.1%
Venue Goals Mean1.19
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.12
History Matches-54
Conceded Mean1.70
Conceded Std0.35
Clean-sheet rate-0.19
Conceded 2+ rate10.5%
Conceded 3+ rate29.8%
Venue Conceded Mean3.03
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.87
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.64
History Matches-54
Result entropy-0.40
Goal Difference Std0.67
Stability score39.57
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.41
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.68
Eligible Matches-53
Lead Matches-17
Lead Win Rate38.9%
Lead Points Retention0.31
Trailing Matches-22
Non-loss rate-0.26
Trailing Win Rate-0.09
Halftime Coverage Matches-53
First Half Goals For Mean0.21
First Half Goals Against Mean0.05
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.04
Second Half Goals Against Mean1.65
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-3.67
Competition Season Count-4
Eligible Competition Season Count-3
Rest days0.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest History Matches-32
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.58
Long Rest History Matches-20
Long Rest Points Per Match-1.05
Current Team ELO-22.67
Current Opponent ELO22.67
Current ELO Difference-45.34
Expected score-0.07
History Matches-54
Residual Mean-0.13
Overperformance-1.99
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.07

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

1. FC Muhlhausen

W
FC Nöttingen1–21. FC Muhlhausen30 Oct · away
Pick: FC Nöttingen 71% · missed
D
1. FC Muhlhausen4–4Teningen25 Oct · home
Pick: Teningen 46% · missed
D
1. FC Muhlhausen0–0Balingen18 Oct · home
Pick: Balingen 38% · missed
W
1. FC Muhlhausen5–2Bahlinger SC30 Aug · home
Pick: Bahlinger SC 54% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

FC 08 Villingen

D
FC 08 Villingen1–1Karlsruhe II31 Oct · home
Pick: FC 08 Villingen 64% · missed
W
CFR Pforzheim0–2FC 08 Villingen24 Oct · away
Pick: FC 08 Villingen 46% · hit
L
FC 08 Villingen0–5FV Ravensburg16 Oct · home
Pick: FC 08 Villingen 54% · missed
L
FC 08 Villingen2–4Backnang29 Aug · home
Pick: Backnang 41% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

1. FC Muhlhausen and FC 08 Villingen meet in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: 1. FC Muhlhausen win 15.6%, draw 21.9%, FC 08 Villingen win 62.5%. The pick is FC 08 Villingen win. Over 2.5 goals: 78.9%. Both teams to score: 61.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.