ScoreProb
Oberliga - Bayern Süd Germany Bayern Süd - 18 2026

1880 Wasserburg vs Sportfreunde Schwaig

1880 Wasserburg Home · Elo 1,505
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Sportfreunde Schwaig Away · Elo 1,504
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Sportfreunde Schwaig win
1880 Wasserburg win
35.4%
Draw
23.1%
Sportfreunde Schwaig winPick
41.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes61.8%
No38.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.562.1%
Under 2.537.9%

How much we know

1880 Wasserburg history7 matches
Sportfreunde Schwaig history42 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 18:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (41.4%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Sportfreunde Schwaig are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,505 against 1,504. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • 1880 Wasserburg score more

    1.71 goals a game over 7 matches for 1880 Wasserburg, against 1.52 over 42 for Sportfreunde Schwaig.

  • Sportfreunde Schwaig concede fewer

    1880 Wasserburg concede 2.14 a game, Sportfreunde Schwaig 1.33.

  • 1880 Wasserburg games more often go over 2.5 goals

    71% of 1880 Wasserburg matches, against 50% for Sportfreunde Schwaig. The model puts this match at 62% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
1880 Wasserburg
Sportfreunde Schwaig
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1504.9
ELO
1504.0
7
ELO · Matches
42
1504.9
Current Team ELO
1504.0
1504.0
Current Opponent ELO
1504.9
0.89
Current ELO Difference
-0.89
0.50
Expected score
0.50
7
History Matches
42
0.02
Residual Mean
0.01
50.59
Overperformance
50.61
0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.06
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
0.80
2.00
Goals for per game
1.00
1.40
Goals against per game
1.20
60.0%
Win rate
0.0%
7
Matches
10
1.43
PPG
1.40
1.71
Goals for per game
1.70
2.14
Goals against per game
1.20
42.9%
Win rate
30.0%
1.71
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.70
0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.27
2.14
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
1.64
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.75
0.91
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.92
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.43
Overall performance9 signals
90
7
Matches
42
1.43
PPG
1.40
42.9%
Win rate
35.7%
14.3%
Draw rate
33.3%
42.9%
Loss rate
31.0%
85.7%
Over 1.5 rate
78.6%
71.4%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
71.4%
Over 3.5 rate
31.0%
1.92
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.79
Venue performance10 signals
100
3
Matches
20
1.33
PPG
1.35
33.3%
Win rate
35.0%
33.3%
Draw rate
30.0%
33.3%
Loss rate
35.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
85.0%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
66.7%
Over 3.5 rate
30.0%
1.63
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.99
3
History Matches
20
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.71
Goals for per game
1.52
100.0%
Scoring rate
78.6%
71.4%
BTTS rate
57.1%
1.67
Goals for per game
1.45
100.0%
Scoring rate
80.0%
66.7%
BTTS rate
55.0%
1.71
Goals for per game
1.71
100.0%
Scoring rate
85.7%
71.4%
BTTS rate
85.7%
7
History Matches
42
1.71
Goals Mean
1.52
0.70
Goals Std
1.33
100.0%
Scored 1+ rate
78.6%
57.1%
Scored 2+ rate
38.1%
14.3%
Scored 3+ rate
19.0%
1.67
Venue Goals Mean
1.45
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
2.14
Goals against per game
1.33
71.4%
Conceding rate
71.4%
1.67
Goals against per game
1.40
66.7%
Conceding rate
75.0%
2.14
Goals against per game
1.14
71.4%
Conceding rate
85.7%
7
History Matches
42
2.14
Conceded Mean
1.33
1.64
Conceded Std
1.25
71.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
38.1%
42.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
14.3%
1.67
Venue Conceded Mean
1.40
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
21.4%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
21.4%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
7
History Matches
42
0.91
Result entropy
1.00
1.92
Goal Difference Std
1.79
8.59
Stability score
0.15
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
7
Eligible Matches
39
3
Lead Matches
12
66.7%
Lead Win Rate
58.3%
0.78
Lead Points Retention
0.72
2
Trailing Matches
10
0.0%
Non-loss rate
30.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
7
Halftime Coverage Matches
39
0.71
First Half Goals For Mean
0.74
1.00
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.59
1.00
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.79
1.14
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.74
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.06
Rest days
75.21
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
3
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.33
5
Normal Rest History Matches
23
1.40
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.48
0
Long Rest History Matches
15
—
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.40
Competition & season17 signals
170
7
Matches
7
1.43
PPG
1.43
42.9%
Win rate
28.6%
14.3%
Draw rate
57.1%
42.9%
Loss rate
14.3%
85.7%
Over 1.5 rate
85.7%
71.4%
Over 2.5 rate
57.1%
71.4%
Over 3.5 rate
28.6%
1.92
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.50
7
Current Competition Matches
7
1.43
Current Competition PPG
1.43
-0.43
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.57
1
Competition Season Count
3
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
—
Portability PPG Std
0.17
—
Portability PPG Range
0.40
—
Portability Score
74.45
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
7
Clean History Matches
42
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreLong Rest Points Per Match
ELO0.89
PPG0.02
GF0.19
GA0.81
PPG0.00
PPG-0.02
PPG1.20
PPG0.03
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-35
Clean-sheet rate0.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.21
History Matches-17
Clean-sheet rate8.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.20
History Matches-35
Goals Mean0.19
Goals Std-0.63
Scored 1+ rate21.4%
Scored 2+ rate19.0%
Scored 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Goals Mean0.22
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.01
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.57
History Matches-35
Conceded Mean0.81
Conceded Std0.39
Clean-sheet rate0.0%
Conceded 2+ rate33.3%
Conceded 3+ rate28.6%
Venue Conceded Mean0.27
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.94
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.89
History Matches-35
Result entropy-0.08
Goal Difference Std0.13
Stability score8.43
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.48
Eligible Matches-32
Lead Matches-9
Lead Win Rate8.3%
Lead Points Retention0.06
Trailing Matches-8
Non-loss rate-0.30
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-32
First Half Goals For Mean-0.03
First Half Goals Against Mean0.41
Second Half Goals For Mean0.21
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.40
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.00
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Rest days1.85
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Short Rest Points Per Match1.67
Normal Rest History Matches-18
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.08
Long Rest History Matches-15
Current Team ELO0.89
Current Opponent ELO-0.89
Current ELO Difference1.78
Expected score0.00
History Matches-35
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance-0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.04

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

1880 Wasserburg

W
Deisenhofen0–21880 Wasserburg31 Oct · away
Pick: Deisenhofen 55% · missed
L
1880 Wasserburg1–2Landshut23 Oct · home
Pick: Landshut 46% · hit
W
Hankofen-Hailing0–21880 Wasserburg17 Oct · away
Pick: Hankofen-Hailing 62% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Sportfreunde Schwaig

L
Pipinsried2–0Sportfreunde Schwaig31 Oct · away
Pick: Pipinsried 60% · hit
W
Sportfreunde Schwaig5–0Deisenhofen23 Oct · home
Pick: Sportfreunde Schwaig 46% · hit
D
Sportfreunde Schwaig3–31860 München II16 Oct · home
Pick: Sportfreunde Schwaig 38% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

1880 Wasserburg and Sportfreunde Schwaig meet in Oberliga - Bayern Süd on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 18:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: 1880 Wasserburg win 35.4%, draw 23.1%, Sportfreunde Schwaig win 41.4%. The pick is Sportfreunde Schwaig win. Over 2.5 goals: 62.1%. Both teams to score: 61.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.