ScoreProb
Girabola Angola Round 7 2026

1º de Agosto vs Wiliete

1º de Agosto Home · Elo 1,601
Wed 4 Nov
UTC
Not started
Wiliete Away · Elo 1,615
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Wiliete win
1º de Agosto win
28.6%
Draw
33.0%
Wiliete winPick
38.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes42.6%
No57.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.537.2%
Under 2.562.8%

How much we know

1º de Agosto history47 matches
Wiliete history49 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    29 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 16 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    4 Nov · 14:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (38.4%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Wiliete are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,601 against 1,615. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.36 goals a game over 47 matches for 1º de Agosto, against 1.41 over 49 for Wiliete.

  • 1º de Agosto concede fewer

    1º de Agosto concede 0.64 a game, Wiliete 0.94.

  • Wiliete games more often go over 2.5 goals

    32% of 1º de Agosto matches, against 45% for Wiliete. The model puts this match at 37% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
1º de Agosto
Wiliete
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1600.7
ELO
1615.0
47
ELO · Matches
49
1600.7
Current Team ELO
1615.0
1615.0
Current Opponent ELO
1600.7
-14.33
Current ELO Difference
14.33
0.48
Expected score
0.52
47
History Matches
49
0.10
Residual Mean
0.11
57.20
Overperformance
58.07
-0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.06
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
1.60
0.60
Goals for per game
1.00
0.40
Goals against per game
0.60
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
1.90
1.00
Goals for per game
1.20
0.60
Goals against per game
0.70
40.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
0.89
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.60
0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.70
0.49
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.46
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.11
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.81
Overall performance9 signals
90
47
Matches
49
1.81
PPG
1.90
44.7%
Win rate
55.1%
46.8%
Draw rate
24.5%
8.5%
Loss rate
20.4%
57.4%
Over 1.5 rate
73.5%
31.9%
Over 2.5 rate
44.9%
19.1%
Over 3.5 rate
14.3%
1.33
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.47
Venue performance10 signals
100
23
Matches
25
2.00
PPG
1.56
56.5%
Win rate
40.0%
30.4%
Draw rate
36.0%
13.0%
Loss rate
24.0%
60.9%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
39.1%
Over 2.5 rate
44.0%
21.7%
Over 3.5 rate
16.0%
1.48
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.42
23
History Matches
25
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.36
Goals for per game
1.41
76.6%
Scoring rate
81.6%
44.7%
BTTS rate
51.0%
1.57
Goals for per game
1.32
82.6%
Scoring rate
76.0%
47.8%
BTTS rate
64.0%
1.00
Goals for per game
2.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
47
History Matches
49
1.36
Goals Mean
1.41
1.24
Goals Std
1.05
76.6%
Scored 1+ rate
81.6%
34.0%
Scored 2+ rate
40.8%
14.9%
Scored 3+ rate
14.3%
1.57
Venue Goals Mean
1.32
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.64
Goals against per game
0.94
51.1%
Conceding rate
67.3%
0.70
Goals against per game
1.08
56.5%
Conceding rate
84.0%
0.00
Goals against per game
0.00
0.0%
Conceding rate
0.0%
47
History Matches
49
0.64
Conceded Mean
0.94
0.70
Conceded Std
0.79
12.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
24.5%
0.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
2.0%
0.70
Venue Conceded Mean
1.08
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
48.9%
Clean-sheet rate
32.7%
23.4%
Failed-to-score rate
18.4%
43.5%
Clean-sheet rate
16.0%
17.4%
Failed-to-score rate
24.0%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
48.9%
Clean-sheet rate
32.7%
23.4%
Failed-to-score rate
18.4%
43.5%
Clean-sheet rate
16.0%
17.4%
Failed-to-score rate
24.0%
48.9%
Clean-sheet rate
32.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
47
History Matches
49
0.84
Result entropy
0.91
1.33
Goal Difference Std
1.47
15.81
Stability score
9.22
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
47
Eligible Matches
48
16
Lead Matches
23
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
73.9%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.81
6
Trailing Matches
9
66.7%
Non-loss rate
22.2%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
47
Halftime Coverage Matches
48
0.57
First Half Goals For Mean
0.75
0.28
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.42
0.79
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.67
0.36
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.52
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
74.02
Rest days
72.92
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
2
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.50
27
Normal Rest History Matches
25
1.85
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.04
18
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.83
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.95
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
3.00
PPG
3.00
100.0%
Win rate
100.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
3.00
Current Competition PPG
3.00
1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
2.00
4
Competition Season Count
5
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.12
Portability PPG Std
0.19
0.24
Portability PPG Range
0.39
80.58
Portability Score
72.05
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
47
Clean History Matches
49
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-14.33
PPG-0.09
GF-0.05
GA-0.30
PPG0.00
PPG0.44
PPG0.00
PPG-0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate16.3%
Failed-to-score rate5.0%
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate27.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.07
History Matches-2
Goals Mean-0.05
Goals Std0.20
Scored 1+ rate-0.05
Scored 2+ rate-0.07
Scored 3+ rate0.6%
Venue Goals Mean0.25
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.29
History Matches-2
Conceded Mean-0.30
Conceded Std-0.10
Clean-sheet rate16.3%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.12
Conceded 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Conceded Mean-0.38
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.03
History Matches-2
Result entropy-0.07
Goal Difference Std-0.14
Stability score6.58
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.31
Eligible Matches-1
Lead Matches-7
Lead Win Rate1.1%
Lead Points Retention0.02
Trailing Matches-3
Non-loss rate44.4%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-1
First Half Goals For Mean-0.18
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.14
Second Half Goals For Mean0.12
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.16
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.00
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.07
Portability PPG Range-0.15
Portability Score8.53
Rest days1.10
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match0.50
Normal Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.19
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.12
Current Team ELO-14.33
Current Opponent ELO14.33
Current ELO Difference-28.66
Expected score-0.04
History Matches-2
Residual Mean-0.01
Overperformance-0.88
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.09

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

1º de Agosto

D
1º de Agosto1–1Petro de Luanda31 Oct · home
Pick: 1º de Agosto 38% · missed
L
Recreativo da Caála1–01º de Agosto27 Oct · away
Pick: 1º de Agosto 37% · missed
W
Virunga1–21º de Agosto18 Oct · away
Pick: Draw 34% · missed
W
1º de Agosto2–1Interclube1 Sep · home
Pick: 1º de Agosto 42% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Wiliete

W
Wiliete3–0Sporting de Cabinda1 Nov · home
Pick: Wiliete 90% · hit
D
Mamelodi Sundowns1–1Wiliete23 Oct · away
Pick: Mamelodi Sundowns 61% · missed
D
Wiliete0–0Mamelodi Sundowns18 Oct · home
Pick: Mamelodi Sundowns 45% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

1º de Agosto and Wiliete meet in Girabola on Wednesday 4 November 2026, kickoff 14:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC: 1º de Agosto win 28.6%, draw 33.0%, Wiliete win 38.4%. The pick is Wiliete win. Over 2.5 goals: 37.2%. Both teams to score: 42.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.