Adana Demirspor vs Ankaraspor
Match result probability Model pick: Ankaraspor win
Adana Demirspor win
16.7%
Draw
12.2%
Ankaraspor winPick
71.1%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes50.9%
No49.1%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.574.1%
Under 2.525.9%
How much we know
Adana Demirspor history54 matches
Ankaraspor history52 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Ankaraspor
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
- Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 11:30 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre8 Nov · 12:30 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 70–79% band (71.1%). Picks in that band won 76.2% of the time, and the model said 73.9% on average, over 583 matches.
Why Ankaraspor are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Ankaraspor are rated 239 Elo points higher
Elo 1,495 against 1,256. On rating alone Ankaraspor would be expected to take 80% of the points on offer.
-
Ankaraspor score far more
0.78 goals a game over 54 matches for Adana Demirspor, against 1.79 over 52 for Ankaraspor.
-
Ankaraspor concede fewer
Adana Demirspor concede 4.00 a game, Ankaraspor 1.35.
-
Adana Demirspor games more often go over 2.5 goals
91% of Adana Demirspor matches, against 60% for Ankaraspor. The model puts this match at 74% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 2 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Ankaraspor@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1255.5
ELO
1494.8
54
ELO · Matches
52
1255.5
Current Team ELO
1494.8
1494.8
Current Opponent ELO
1255.5
-239.2
Current ELO Difference
239.2
0.20
Expected score
0.80
54
History Matches
52
-0.22
Residual Mean
0.00
33.62
Overperformance
49.76
-0.15
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.30
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
0.00
PPG
0.80
0.60
Goals for per game
2.20
5.40
Goals against per game
2.60
0.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
0.30
PPG
0.50
0.60
Goals for per game
1.70
4.40
Goals against per game
2.40
10.0%
Win rate
10.0%
0.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.70
0.66
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.42
4.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.40
2.24
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.92
0.30
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
2.48
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.78
Overall performance9 signals 90
54
Matches
52
0.22
PPG
1.40
3.7%
Win rate
36.5%
11.1%
Draw rate
30.8%
85.2%
Loss rate
32.7%
94.4%
Over 1.5 rate
82.7%
90.7%
Over 2.5 rate
59.6%
75.9%
Over 3.5 rate
32.7%
2.25
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.60
Venue performance10 signals 100
26
Matches
25
0.31
PPG
1.28
3.8%
Win rate
36.0%
19.2%
Draw rate
20.0%
76.9%
Loss rate
44.0%
92.3%
Over 1.5 rate
72.0%
84.6%
Over 2.5 rate
56.0%
61.5%
Over 3.5 rate
32.0%
2.20
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.46
26
History Matches
25
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
0.78
Goals for per game
1.79
51.9%
Scoring rate
84.6%
51.9%
BTTS rate
65.4%
0.88
Goals for per game
1.68
57.7%
Scoring rate
80.0%
57.7%
BTTS rate
56.0%
54
History Matches
52
0.78
Goals Mean
1.79
0.90
Goals Std
1.38
51.9%
Scored 1+ rate
84.6%
20.4%
Scored 2+ rate
50.0%
5.6%
Scored 3+ rate
25.0%
0.88
Venue Goals Mean
1.68
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
4.00
Goals against per game
1.35
98.1%
Conceding rate
76.9%
3.73
Goals against per game
1.40
96.2%
Conceding rate
76.0%
54
History Matches
52
4.00
Conceded Mean
1.35
1.89
Conceded Std
1.05
88.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
40.4%
79.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
13.5%
3.73
Venue Conceded Mean
1.40
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
1.9%
Clean-sheet rate
23.1%
48.1%
Failed-to-score rate
15.4%
3.8%
Clean-sheet rate
24.0%
42.3%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
1.9%
Clean-sheet rate
23.1%
48.1%
Failed-to-score rate
15.4%
3.8%
Clean-sheet rate
24.0%
42.3%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
1.9%
Clean-sheet rate
23.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
54
History Matches
52
0.46
Result entropy
1.00
2.25
Goal Difference Std
1.60
54.23
Stability score
0.23
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
54
Eligible Matches
52
3
Lead Matches
20
0.0%
Lead Win Rate
65.0%
0.11
Lead Points Retention
0.73
41
Trailing Matches
7
7.3%
Non-loss rate
14.3%
2.4%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
54
Halftime Coverage Matches
52
0.39
First Half Goals For Mean
0.77
1.87
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.38
0.39
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.02
2.13
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.96
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
190.9
Rest days
197.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
31
Normal Rest History Matches
37
0.10
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.24
22
Long Rest History Matches
14
0.41
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.93
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.12
Portability PPG Std
0.02
0.24
Portability PPG Range
0.04
80.51
Portability Score
95.74
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
54
Clean History Matches
52
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-239.2
PPG-1.18
GF-1.01
GA2.65
PPG-0.97
PPG-0.80
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate-0.21
Failed-to-score rate32.8%
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate-0.20
Failed-to-score rate22.3%
History Matches2
Goals Mean-1.01
Goals Std-0.48
Scored 1+ rate-0.33
Scored 2+ rate-0.30
Scored 3+ rate-0.19
Venue Goals Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.75
History Matches2
Conceded Mean2.65
Conceded Std0.83
Clean-sheet rate-0.21
Conceded 2+ rate48.5%
Conceded 3+ rate66.2%
Venue Conceded Mean2.33
Recent 10 Conceded Mean2.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std1.33
History Matches2
Result entropy-0.54
Goal Difference Std0.65
Stability score54.00
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.43
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.70
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches-17
Lead Win Rate-0.65
Lead Points Retention-0.62
Trailing Matches34
Non-loss rate-0.07
Trailing Win Rate2.4%
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean-0.38
First Half Goals Against Mean1.49
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.63
Second Half Goals Against Mean1.17
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.10
Portability PPG Range0.20
Portability Score-15.24
Rest days-6.08
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-6
Normal Rest Points Per Match-1.15
Long Rest History Matches8
Long Rest Points Per Match-1.52
Current Team ELO-239.2
Current Opponent ELO239.2
Current ELO Difference-478.4
Expected score-0.60
History Matches2
Residual Mean-0.22
Overperformance-16.14
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.15
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Adana Demirspor
L
Muş Sport Klübü7–1Adana Demirspor31 Oct · away
Pick: Muş Sport Klübü 80% · hit L
Adana Demirspor0–1İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik24 Oct · home
Pick: İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik 66% · hit L
68 Aksaray Belediyespor2–0Adana Demirspor18 Oct · away
Pick: 68 Aksaray Belediyespor 74% · hit L
Hakkari Zapspor6–1Adana Demirspor7 Oct · away
Pick: Adana Demirspor 41% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
Ankaraspor
L
Ankaraspor0–3Sebat Gençlikspor1 Nov · home
Pick: Ankaraspor 41% · missed W
Ankaraspor5–1Kastamonuspor24 Oct · home
Pick: Ankaraspor 42% · hit L
Muş Sport Klübü4–2Ankaraspor18 Oct · away
Pick: Muş Sport Klübü 64% · hit W
68 Aksaray Belediyespor0–1Ankaraspor4 Oct · away
Pick: 68 Aksaray Belediyespor 38% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Adana Demirspor and Ankaraspor meet in 2. Lig on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 12:30 UTC. The match is played at Yeni Adana Stadyumu. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Adana Demirspor win 16.7%, draw 12.2%, Ankaraspor win 71.1%. The pick is Ankaraspor win. Over 2.5 goals: 74.1%. Both teams to score: 50.9%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.