ScoreProb
2. Lig Türkiye 2. Lig White Group - 10 2026

Sebat Gençlikspor vs Kastamonuspor

Sebat Gençlikspor Home · Elo 1,621
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Kastamonuspor Away · Elo 1,474
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Sebat Gençlikspor win
Sebat Gençlikspor winPick
52.0%
Draw
22.8%
Kastamonuspor win
25.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes53.1%
No46.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.558.0%
Under 2.542.0%

How much we know

Sebat Gençlikspor history46 matches
Kastamonuspor history55 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 1 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 10:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (52.0%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Sebat Gençlikspor are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Sebat Gençlikspor are rated 147 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,621 against 1,474. On rating alone Sebat Gençlikspor would be expected to take 70% of the points on offer.

  • Sebat Gençlikspor score more

    2.00 goals a game over 46 matches for Sebat Gençlikspor, against 1.33 over 55 for Kastamonuspor.

  • Sebat Gençlikspor concede fewer

    Sebat Gençlikspor concede 0.87 a game, Kastamonuspor 1.33.

  • Sebat Gençlikspor games more often go over 2.5 goals

    57% of Sebat Gençlikspor matches, against 45% for Kastamonuspor. The model puts this match at 58% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Apr 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Sebat Gençlikspor
Kastamonuspor
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1621.2
ELO
1473.8
46
ELO · Matches
55
1621.2
Current Team ELO
1473.8
1473.8
Current Opponent ELO
1621.2
147.4
Current ELO Difference
-147.4
0.70
Expected score
0.30
46
History Matches
55
0.13
Residual Mean
-0.03
58.94
Overperformance
48.00
-0.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.33
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
0.20
1.80
Goals for per game
1.00
1.00
Goals against per game
3.20
60.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
0.30
1.20
Goals for per game
0.60
0.80
Goals against per game
2.10
50.0%
Win rate
0.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.60
1.08
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.80
0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.10
0.87
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.45
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.56
1.11
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.36
Overall performance9 signals
90
46
Matches
55
2.15
PPG
1.36
65.2%
Win rate
34.5%
19.6%
Draw rate
32.7%
15.2%
Loss rate
32.7%
78.3%
Over 1.5 rate
78.2%
56.5%
Over 2.5 rate
45.5%
34.8%
Over 3.5 rate
27.3%
1.51
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.82
Venue performance10 signals
100
23
Matches
28
2.43
PPG
1.29
78.3%
Win rate
32.1%
8.7%
Draw rate
32.1%
13.0%
Loss rate
35.7%
82.6%
Over 1.5 rate
78.6%
60.9%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
43.5%
Over 3.5 rate
28.6%
1.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.56
23
History Matches
28
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
2.00
Goals for per game
1.33
87.0%
Scoring rate
70.9%
56.5%
BTTS rate
54.5%
2.39
Goals for per game
1.21
100.0%
Scoring rate
67.9%
56.5%
BTTS rate
60.7%
46
History Matches
55
2.00
Goals Mean
1.33
1.34
Goals Std
1.32
87.0%
Scored 1+ rate
70.9%
60.9%
Scored 2+ rate
38.2%
34.8%
Scored 3+ rate
10.9%
2.39
Venue Goals Mean
1.21
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.87
Goals against per game
1.33
65.2%
Conceding rate
78.2%
0.83
Goals against per game
1.50
56.5%
Conceding rate
89.3%
46
History Matches
55
0.87
Conceded Mean
1.33
0.77
Conceded Std
1.10
19.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
36.4%
2.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
10.9%
0.83
Venue Conceded Mean
1.50
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
34.8%
Clean-sheet rate
21.8%
13.0%
Failed-to-score rate
29.1%
43.5%
Clean-sheet rate
10.7%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
32.1%
34.8%
Clean-sheet rate
21.8%
13.0%
Failed-to-score rate
29.1%
43.5%
Clean-sheet rate
10.7%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
32.1%
34.8%
Clean-sheet rate
21.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
46
History Matches
55
0.81
Result entropy
1.00
1.51
Goal Difference Std
1.82
19.49
Stability score
0.03
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
46
Eligible Matches
55
14
Lead Matches
11
78.6%
Lead Win Rate
72.7%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.79
7
Trailing Matches
22
42.9%
Non-loss rate
31.8%
28.6%
Trailing Win Rate
4.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
46
Halftime Coverage Matches
55
0.57
First Half Goals For Mean
0.47
0.35
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.67
1.43
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.85
0.52
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.65
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
204.0
Rest days
196.9
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
31
Normal Rest History Matches
39
2.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.62
14
Long Rest History Matches
15
2.43
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.73
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
4
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.08
Portability PPG Std
0.31
0.15
Portability PPG Range
0.61
86.86
Portability Score
62.07
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
46
Clean History Matches
55
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO147.4
PPG0.79
GF0.67
GA-0.46
PPG1.15
PPG1.80
PPG1.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-9
Clean-sheet rate13.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.16
History Matches-5
Clean-sheet rate32.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.32
History Matches-9
Goals Mean0.67
Goals Std0.01
Scored 1+ rate16.0%
Scored 2+ rate22.7%
Scored 3+ rate23.9%
Venue Goals Mean1.18
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std0.28
History Matches-9
Conceded Mean-0.46
Conceded Std-0.33
Clean-sheet rate13.0%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.17
Conceded 3+ rate-0.09
Venue Conceded Mean-0.67
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.57
History Matches-9
Result entropy-0.19
Goal Difference Std-0.31
Stability score19.46
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.38
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.25
Eligible Matches-9
Lead Matches3
Lead Win Rate5.8%
Lead Points Retention0.05
Trailing Matches-15
Non-loss rate11.0%
Trailing Win Rate24.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-9
First Half Goals For Mean0.09
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.32
Second Half Goals For Mean0.58
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.13
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.23
Portability PPG Range-0.46
Portability Score24.79
Rest days7.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-8
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.38
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match1.70
Current Team ELO147.4
Current Opponent ELO-147.4
Current ELO Difference294.8
Expected score0.40
History Matches-9
Residual Mean0.16
Overperformance10.94
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.24

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Sebat Gençlikspor

W
Ankaraspor0–3Sebat Gençlikspor1 Nov · away
Pick: Ankaraspor 41% · missed
W
İnegölspor1–4Sebat Gençlikspor28 Oct · away
Pick: İnegölspor 43% · missed
W
Sebat Gençlikspor3–2Muş Sport Klübü24 Oct · home
Pick: Muş Sport Klübü 40% · missed
L
İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik2–1Sebat Gençlikspor18 Oct · away
Pick: Sebat Gençlikspor 37% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Kastamonuspor

L
Kastamonuspor0–5Elazığspor1 Nov · home
Pick: Elazığspor 50% · hit
L
Kastamonuspor1–424 Erzincanspor28 Oct · home
Pick: Kastamonuspor 43% · missed
L
Ankaraspor5–1Kastamonuspor24 Oct · away
Pick: Ankaraspor 42% · hit
D
Kastamonuspor2–2Isparta 32 Spor18 Oct · home
Pick: Kastamonuspor 45% · missed
W
Kastamonuspor2–1Arnavutköy Belediyespor4 Oct · home
Pick: Kastamonuspor 44% · hit

About this match

Sebat Gençlikspor and Kastamonuspor meet in 2. Lig on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 10:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Sebat Gençlikspor win 52.0%, draw 22.8%, Kastamonuspor win 25.2%. The pick is Sebat Gençlikspor win. Over 2.5 goals: 58.0%. Both teams to score: 53.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.