ScoreProb
A-League Australia Round 4 2026

Adelaide United vs Melbourne Victory

Adelaide United Home · Elo 1,508
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Melbourne Victory Away · Elo 1,552
Coopers Stadium, Adelaide Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Melbourne Victory win
Adelaide United win
30.5%
Draw
25.5%
Melbourne Victory winPick
44.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes60.5%
No39.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.560.2%
Under 2.539.8%

How much we know

Adelaide United history45 matches
Melbourne Victory history48 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 21 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 06:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (44.0%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Melbourne Victory are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Melbourne Victory are rated 44 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,552 against 1,508. On rating alone Melbourne Victory would be expected to take 56% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.62 goals a game over 45 matches for Adelaide United, against 1.60 over 48 for Melbourne Victory.

  • Melbourne Victory concede fewer

    Adelaide United concede 1.84 a game, Melbourne Victory 1.29.

  • Adelaide United games more often go over 2.5 goals

    67% of Adelaide United matches, against 52% for Melbourne Victory. The model puts this match at 60% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 20 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Adelaide United
Melbourne Victory@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1507.8
ELO
1551.6
45
ELO · Matches
48
1507.8
Current Team ELO
1551.6
1551.6
Current Opponent ELO
1507.8
-43.78
Current ELO Difference
43.78
0.44
Expected score
0.56
45
History Matches
48
0.00
Residual Mean
0.05
50.27
Overperformance
53.28
0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.10
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
1.60
0.80
Goals for per game
1.20
1.80
Goals against per game
0.20
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.60
1.40
Goals for per game
1.80
1.50
Goals against per game
0.80
30.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.66
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.80
0.67
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.75
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.51
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.73
Overall performance9 signals
90
45
Matches
48
1.20
PPG
1.52
31.1%
Win rate
41.7%
26.7%
Draw rate
27.1%
42.2%
Loss rate
31.3%
91.1%
Over 1.5 rate
72.9%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
52.1%
37.8%
Over 3.5 rate
35.4%
1.60
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.82
Venue performance10 signals
100
21
Matches
26
1.48
PPG
1.54
42.9%
Win rate
42.3%
19.0%
Draw rate
26.9%
38.1%
Loss rate
30.8%
90.5%
Over 1.5 rate
73.1%
61.9%
Over 2.5 rate
53.8%
42.9%
Over 3.5 rate
34.6%
1.85
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.70
21
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.62
Goals for per game
1.60
86.7%
Scoring rate
66.7%
77.8%
BTTS rate
47.9%
1.76
Goals for per game
1.50
81.0%
Scoring rate
69.2%
66.7%
BTTS rate
46.2%
45
History Matches
48
1.62
Goals Mean
1.60
1.18
Goals Std
1.47
86.7%
Scored 1+ rate
66.7%
42.2%
Scored 2+ rate
52.1%
22.2%
Scored 3+ rate
25.0%
1.76
Venue Goals Mean
1.50
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.84
Goals against per game
1.29
88.9%
Conceding rate
72.9%
1.67
Goals against per game
1.35
85.7%
Conceding rate
65.4%
45
History Matches
48
1.84
Conceded Mean
1.29
1.28
Conceded Std
1.15
53.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
35.4%
24.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
14.6%
1.67
Venue Conceded Mean
1.35
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
11.1%
Clean-sheet rate
27.1%
13.3%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
14.3%
Clean-sheet rate
34.6%
19.0%
Failed-to-score rate
30.8%
11.1%
Clean-sheet rate
27.1%
13.3%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
14.3%
Clean-sheet rate
34.6%
19.0%
Failed-to-score rate
30.8%
11.1%
Clean-sheet rate
27.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
45
History Matches
48
0.98
Result entropy
0.98
1.60
Goal Difference Std
1.82
1.71
Stability score
1.51
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
45
Eligible Matches
48
12
Lead Matches
16
50.0%
Lead Win Rate
68.8%
0.64
Lead Points Retention
0.77
18
Trailing Matches
10
33.3%
Non-loss rate
20.0%
16.7%
Trailing Win Rate
10.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
45
Halftime Coverage Matches
48
0.69
First Half Goals For Mean
0.71
0.82
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.54
0.93
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.90
1.02
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.75
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
88.85
Rest days
80.85
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
21
Normal Rest History Matches
19
1.62
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.53
23
Long Rest History Matches
28
0.87
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.46
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
5
Competition Season Count
5
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.43
Portability PPG Std
0.09
0.86
Portability PPG Range
0.21
53.85
Portability Score
84.37
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
45
Clean History Matches
48
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-43.78
PPG-0.32
GF0.02
GA0.55
PPG-0.06
PPG-0.80
PPG-0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate-0.16
Failed-to-score rate-0.20
History Matches-5
Clean-sheet rate-0.20
Failed-to-score rate-0.12
History Matches-3
Goals Mean0.02
Goals Std-0.29
Scored 1+ rate20.0%
Scored 2+ rate-0.10
Scored 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Goals Mean0.26
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.46
History Matches-3
Conceded Mean0.55
Conceded Std0.13
Clean-sheet rate-0.16
Conceded 2+ rate17.9%
Conceded 3+ rate9.9%
Venue Conceded Mean0.32
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.08
History Matches-3
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std-0.21
Stability score0.21
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.03
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.22
Eligible Matches-3
Lead Matches-4
Lead Win Rate-0.19
Lead Points Retention-0.13
Trailing Matches8
Non-loss rate13.3%
Trailing Win Rate6.7%
Halftime Coverage Matches-3
First Half Goals For Mean-0.02
First Half Goals Against Mean0.28
Second Half Goals For Mean0.04
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.27
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.34
Portability PPG Range0.65
Portability Score-30.53
Rest days8.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.09
Long Rest History Matches-5
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.59
Current Team ELO-43.78
Current Opponent ELO43.78
Current ELO Difference-87.55
Expected score-0.13
History Matches-3
Residual Mean-0.04
Overperformance-3.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.03

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Adelaide United

L
Perth Glory4–0Adelaide United1 Nov · away
Pick: Adelaide United 46% · missed
L
Adelaide United0–2Home United29 Oct · home
Pick: Home United 61% · hit
L
Sydney2–1Adelaide United25 Oct · away
Pick: Sydney 60% · hit
W
BG Pathum United1–2Adelaide United15 Oct · away
Pick: BG Pathum United 67% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Melbourne Victory

D
Melbourne Victory1–1Central Coast Mariners1 Nov · home
Pick: Melbourne Victory 59% · missed
L
Persib Bandung2–0Melbourne Victory28 Oct · away
Pick: Persib Bandung 62% · hit
D
Melbourne Victory1–1Melbourne City24 Oct · home
Pick: Melbourne City 40% · missed
L
Wellington Phoenix2–1Melbourne Victory18 Oct · away
Pick: Melbourne Victory 48% · missed
W
Melbourne Victory3–0FC Seoul14 Oct · home
Pick: FC Seoul 50% · missed

About this match

Adelaide United and Melbourne Victory meet in A-League on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 06:00 UTC. The match is played at Coopers Stadium, Adelaide. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Adelaide United win 30.5%, draw 25.5%, Melbourne Victory win 44.0%. The pick is Melbourne Victory win. Over 2.5 goals: 60.2%. Both teams to score: 60.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.