ScoreProb
1. Division Cyprus Round 9 2026

AEL vs Krasava Ypsonas

AEL Home · Elo 1,504
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Krasava Ypsonas Away · Elo 1,505
Alphamega Stadium, Kolossi Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: AEL win
AEL winPick
54.9%
Draw
26.3%
Krasava Ypsonas win
18.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes50.0%
No50.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.551.5%
Under 2.548.5%

How much we know

AEL history55 matches
Krasava Ypsonas history47 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 14:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (54.9%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why AEL are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,504 against 1,505. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.24 goals a game over 55 matches for AEL, against 1.21 over 47 for Krasava Ypsonas.

  • Krasava Ypsonas concede fewer

    AEL concede 1.40 a game, Krasava Ypsonas 1.15.

  • AEL games more often go over 2.5 goals

    55% of AEL matches, against 40% for Krasava Ypsonas. The model puts this match at 51% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 20 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
AEL
Krasava Ypsonas
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1503.6
ELO
1504.8
55
ELO · Matches
47
1503.6
Current Team ELO
1504.8
1504.8
Current Opponent ELO
1503.6
-1.17
Current ELO Difference
1.17
0.50
Expected score
0.50
55
History Matches
47
0.00
Residual Mean
0.01
49.75
Overperformance
50.45
0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.11
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
1.20
1.80
Goals for per game
1.40
1.20
Goals against per game
1.60
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
1.80
1.60
Goals for per game
1.70
1.30
Goals against per game
1.60
40.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.70
1.11
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.27
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std
2.29
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.90
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.95
Overall performance9 signals
90
55
Matches
47
1.31
PPG
1.38
38.2%
Win rate
38.3%
16.4%
Draw rate
23.4%
45.5%
Loss rate
38.3%
81.8%
Over 1.5 rate
66.0%
54.5%
Over 2.5 rate
40.4%
23.6%
Over 3.5 rate
19.1%
1.92
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.04
Venue performance10 signals
100
25
Matches
23
1.24
PPG
1.17
36.0%
Win rate
30.4%
16.0%
Draw rate
26.1%
48.0%
Loss rate
43.5%
76.0%
Over 1.5 rate
60.9%
52.0%
Over 2.5 rate
34.8%
24.0%
Over 3.5 rate
17.4%
1.48
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.17
25
History Matches
23
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.24
Goals for per game
1.21
70.9%
Scoring rate
72.3%
49.1%
BTTS rate
38.3%
1.28
Goals for per game
1.04
76.0%
Scoring rate
65.2%
56.0%
BTTS rate
39.1%
55
History Matches
47
1.24
Goals Mean
1.21
1.08
Goals Std
1.09
70.9%
Scored 1+ rate
72.3%
36.4%
Scored 2+ rate
29.8%
12.7%
Scored 3+ rate
14.9%
1.28
Venue Goals Mean
1.04
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.40
Goals against per game
1.15
76.4%
Conceding rate
61.7%
1.32
Goals against per game
1.30
80.0%
Conceding rate
69.6%
55
History Matches
47
1.40
Conceded Mean
1.15
1.17
Conceded Std
1.43
40.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
25.5%
16.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.8%
1.32
Venue Conceded Mean
1.30
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
23.6%
Clean-sheet rate
38.3%
29.1%
Failed-to-score rate
27.7%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
30.4%
24.0%
Failed-to-score rate
34.8%
23.6%
Clean-sheet rate
38.3%
29.1%
Failed-to-score rate
27.7%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
30.4%
24.0%
Failed-to-score rate
34.8%
23.6%
Clean-sheet rate
38.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
55
History Matches
47
0.93
Result entropy
0.98
1.92
Goal Difference Std
2.04
6.95
Stability score
2.15
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
55
Eligible Matches
47
13
Lead Matches
12
69.2%
Lead Win Rate
91.7%
0.74
Lead Points Retention
0.92
23
Trailing Matches
15
26.1%
Non-loss rate
40.0%
13.0%
Trailing Win Rate
6.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
55
Halftime Coverage Matches
47
0.42
First Half Goals For Mean
0.38
0.60
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.49
0.82
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.83
0.80
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.66
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
79.92
Rest days
174.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
27
Normal Rest History Matches
24
1.15
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.33
26
Long Rest History Matches
22
1.54
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.50
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
6
Competition Season Count
4
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.17
Portability PPG Std
0.35
0.38
Portability PPG Range
0.70
74.57
Portability Score
58.67
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
55
Clean History Matches
47
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-1.17
PPG-0.07
GF0.02
GA0.25
PPG0.07
PPG0.40
PPG-0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches8
Clean-sheet rate-0.15
Failed-to-score rate1.4%
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate-0.10
Failed-to-score rate-0.11
History Matches8
Goals Mean0.02
Goals Std-0.01
Scored 1+ rate-0.01
Scored 2+ rate6.6%
Scored 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Goals Mean0.24
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.16
History Matches8
Conceded Mean0.25
Conceded Std-0.26
Clean-sheet rate-0.15
Conceded 2+ rate14.5%
Conceded 3+ rate3.6%
Venue Conceded Mean0.02
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-1.28
History Matches8
Result entropy-0.05
Goal Difference Std-0.11
Stability score4.81
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.05
Eligible Matches8
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate-0.22
Lead Points Retention-0.17
Trailing Matches8
Non-loss rate-0.14
Trailing Win Rate6.4%
Halftime Coverage Matches8
First Half Goals For Mean0.04
First Half Goals Against Mean0.11
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.01
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.14
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.18
Portability PPG Range-0.32
Portability Score15.90
Rest days-94.08
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.19
Long Rest History Matches4
Long Rest Points Per Match0.04
Current Team ELO-1.17
Current Opponent ELO1.17
Current ELO Difference-2.34
Expected score0.00
History Matches8
Residual Mean-0.01
Overperformance-0.70
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.08

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

AEL

W
AEL2–1Iraklis Yerolakkou3 Nov · home
Pick: AEL 56% · hit
L
Omonia Nicosia2–0AEL31 Oct · away
Pick: Omonia Nicosia 60% · hit
L
AEL1–3Aris25 Oct · home
Pick: Aris 44% · hit
W
Omonia Aradippou0–2AEL18 Oct · away
Pick: AEL 42% · hit
W
AEL2–0Anorthosis30 Aug · home
Pick: AEL 48% · hit

Krasava Ypsonas

D
Krasava Ypsonas2–2AEK Larnaca31 Oct · home
Pick: AEK Larnaca 50% · missed
D
Olympiakos1–1Krasava Ypsonas24 Oct · away
Pick: Olympiakos 43% · missed
W
Krasava Ypsonas2–1Karmiotissa17 Oct · home
Pick: Krasava Ypsonas 40% · hit
W
Spartakos Kitiou0–2Krasava Ypsonas14 Oct · away
Pick: Krasava Ypsonas 39% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

AEL and Krasava Ypsonas meet in 1. Division on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. The match is played at Alphamega Stadium, Kolossi. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: AEL win 54.9%, draw 26.3%, Krasava Ypsonas win 18.8%. The pick is AEL win. Over 2.5 goals: 51.5%. Both teams to score: 50.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.