ScoreProb
FAW Championship Wales South - 14 2026

Afan Lido vs Caerphilly Athletic

Afan Lido Home · Elo 1,458
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Caerphilly Athletic Away · Elo 1,478
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Afan Lido win
Afan Lido winPick
68.3%
Draw
16.0%
Caerphilly Athletic win
15.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes49.0%
No51.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.564.4%
Under 2.535.6%

How much we know

Afan Lido history46 matches
Caerphilly Athletic history5 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 19:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (68.3%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Afan Lido are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,458 against 1,478. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Afan Lido score far more

    1.30 goals a game over 46 matches for Afan Lido, against 0.60 over 5 for Caerphilly Athletic.

  • Defences are close

    Afan Lido concede 1.85 a game, Caerphilly Athletic 2.00.

  • Caerphilly Athletic games more often go over 2.5 goals

    59% of Afan Lido matches, against 80% for Caerphilly Athletic. The model puts this match at 64% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Afan Lido
Caerphilly Athletic
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1457.9
ELO
1477.7
46
ELO · Matches
5
1457.9
Current Team ELO
1477.7
1477.7
Current Opponent ELO
1457.9
-19.81
Current ELO Difference
19.81
0.47
Expected score
0.53
46
History Matches
5
-0.05
Residual Mean
-0.20
46.80
Overperformance
45.91
0.16
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.20
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
0.80
2.00
Goals for per game
0.60
2.40
Goals against per game
2.00
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
0.80
2.00
Goals for per game
0.60
1.80
Goals against per game
2.00
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
2.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.60
1.61
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.80
1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.00
1.89
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.26
0.61
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
2.89
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.62
Overall performance9 signals
90
46
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
0.80
34.8%
Win rate
20.0%
15.2%
Draw rate
20.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
60.0%
76.1%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
58.7%
Over 2.5 rate
80.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
20.0%
2.24
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.62
Venue performance10 signals
100
23
Matches
2
1.39
PPG
0.00
43.5%
Win rate
0.0%
8.7%
Draw rate
0.0%
47.8%
Loss rate
100.0%
78.3%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
60.9%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
52.2%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
2.44
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.00
23
History Matches
2
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.30
Goals for per game
0.60
67.4%
Scoring rate
40.0%
54.3%
BTTS rate
40.0%
1.52
Goals for per game
0.00
65.2%
Scoring rate
0.0%
47.8%
BTTS rate
0.0%
2.25
Goals for per game
0.50
100.0%
Scoring rate
25.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
25.0%
46
History Matches
5
1.30
Goals Mean
0.60
1.30
Goals Std
0.80
67.4%
Scored 1+ rate
40.0%
34.8%
Scored 2+ rate
20.0%
17.4%
Scored 3+ rate
0.0%
1.52
Venue Goals Mean
0.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.85
Goals against per game
2.00
84.8%
Conceding rate
80.0%
1.78
Goals against per game
3.00
82.6%
Conceding rate
100.0%
2.00
Goals against per game
1.75
50.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
46
History Matches
5
1.85
Conceded Mean
2.00
1.50
Conceded Std
1.26
45.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
60.0%
28.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
60.0%
1.78
Venue Conceded Mean
3.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
15.2%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
32.6%
Failed-to-score rate
60.0%
17.4%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
34.8%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
75.0%
15.2%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
32.6%
Failed-to-score rate
60.0%
17.4%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
34.8%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
15.2%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
46
History Matches
5
0.91
Result entropy
0.86
2.24
Goal Difference Std
1.62
8.94
Stability score
13.50
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
46
Eligible Matches
5
7
Lead Matches
1
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
1.00
16
Trailing Matches
3
18.8%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
6.3%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
46
Halftime Coverage Matches
5
0.50
First Half Goals For Mean
0.20
0.72
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.00
0.80
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.40
1.13
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.00
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
76.25
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
24
Normal Rest History Matches
2
1.38
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.00
20
Long Rest History Matches
2
0.90
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
1.50
PPG
1.00
50.0%
Win rate
25.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
75.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
3.11
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.79
4
Current Competition Matches
4
1.50
Current Competition PPG
1.00
0.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.25
5
Competition Season Count
2
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.27
Portability PPG Std
—
0.63
Portability PPG Range
—
64.93
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
46
Clean History Matches
5
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-19.81
PPG0.40
GF0.70
GA-0.15
PPG0.50
PPG1.39
PPG0.40
PPG1.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches41
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Failed-to-score rate-0.27
History Matches21
Clean-sheet rate17.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.65
History Matches41
Goals Mean0.70
Goals Std0.50
Scored 1+ rate27.4%
Scored 2+ rate14.8%
Scored 3+ rate17.4%
Venue Goals Mean1.52
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.40
Recent 10 Goals Std0.81
History Matches41
Conceded Mean-0.15
Conceded Std0.24
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Conceded 2+ rate-0.14
Conceded 3+ rate-0.32
Venue Conceded Mean-1.22
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.62
History Matches41
Result entropy0.05
Goal Difference Std0.62
Stability score-4.56
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.25
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.27
Eligible Matches41
Lead Matches6
Lead Win Rate0.0%
Lead Points Retention0.00
Trailing Matches13
Non-loss rate18.8%
Trailing Win Rate6.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches41
First Half Goals For Mean0.30
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.28
Second Half Goals For Mean0.40
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.13
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.50
Competition Season Count3
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Rest days0.79
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches22
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.63
Long Rest History Matches18
Long Rest Points Per Match0.90
Current Team ELO-19.81
Current Opponent ELO19.81
Current ELO Difference-39.62
Expected score-0.06
History Matches41
Residual Mean0.16
Overperformance0.89
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.37

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Afan Lido

L
Cardiff Draconians2–0Afan Lido31 Oct · away
Pick: Afan Lido 44% · missed
W
llanelli AFC0–3Afan Lido23 Oct · away
Pick: Afan Lido 53% · hit
L
Afan Lido2–3Penybont18 Oct · home
Pick: Penybont 52% · hit
D
Afan Lido0–0Ynyshir Albions31 Aug · home
Pick: Afan Lido 51% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Caerphilly Athletic

L
Caerphilly Athletic0–1Caerau (Ely)30 Oct · home
Pick: Caerau (Ely) 47% · hit
W
Carmarthen Town1–3Caerphilly Athletic23 Oct · away
Pick: Carmarthen Town 76% · missed
W
Caerphilly Athletic1–0Chepstow Town17 Oct · home
Pick: Caerphilly Athletic 55% · hit
W
Baglan Dragons0–1Caerphilly Athletic31 Aug · away
Pick: Baglan Dragons 64% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Afan Lido and Caerphilly Athletic meet in FAW Championship on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 19:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Afan Lido win 68.3%, draw 16.0%, Caerphilly Athletic win 15.6%. The pick is Afan Lido win. Over 2.5 goals: 64.4%. Both teams to score: 49.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.