ScoreProb
FAW Championship Wales North - 14 2026

Bala Town vs Guilsfield

Bala Town Home · Elo 1,448
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Guilsfield Away · Elo 1,517
Maes Tegid, Bala Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Bala Town win
Bala Town winPick
58.1%
Draw
19.5%
Guilsfield win
22.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes55.8%
No44.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.557.8%
Under 2.542.2%

How much we know

Bala Town history50 matches
Guilsfield history45 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 11 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 19:45 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (58.1%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Bala Town are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Guilsfield are rated 69 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,517 against 1,448. On rating alone Guilsfield would be expected to take 60% of the points on offer.

  • Guilsfield score far more

    1.06 goals a game over 50 matches for Bala Town, against 1.73 over 45 for Guilsfield.

  • Defences are close

    Bala Town concede 1.54 a game, Guilsfield 1.49.

  • Guilsfield games more often go over 2.5 goals

    52% of Bala Town matches, against 67% for Guilsfield. The model puts this match at 58% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Bala Town
Guilsfield
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1447.7
ELO
1516.7
50
ELO · Matches
45
1447.7
Current Team ELO
1516.7
1516.7
Current Opponent ELO
1447.7
-69.03
Current ELO Difference
69.03
0.40
Expected score
0.60
50
History Matches
45
-0.05
Residual Mean
0.02
46.71
Overperformance
51.64
0.16
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.07
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
1.80
1.60
Goals for per game
2.20
1.60
Goals against per game
1.20
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
1.50
1.60
Goals for per game
1.80
1.10
Goals against per game
1.60
50.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
1.43
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.40
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
1.22
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.11
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
2.29
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.14
Overall performance9 signals
90
50
Matches
45
1.02
PPG
1.53
26.0%
Win rate
42.2%
24.0%
Draw rate
26.7%
50.0%
Loss rate
31.1%
76.0%
Over 1.5 rate
82.2%
52.0%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
28.0%
Over 3.5 rate
42.2%
1.88
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.68
Venue performance10 signals
100
26
Matches
21
1.15
PPG
1.05
26.9%
Win rate
23.8%
34.6%
Draw rate
33.3%
38.5%
Loss rate
42.9%
65.4%
Over 1.5 rate
81.0%
42.3%
Over 2.5 rate
52.4%
26.9%
Over 3.5 rate
28.6%
1.55
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.37
26
History Matches
21
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.06
Goals for per game
1.73
62.0%
Scoring rate
82.2%
44.0%
BTTS rate
71.1%
0.96
Goals for per game
1.14
57.7%
Scoring rate
71.4%
38.5%
BTTS rate
71.4%
2.33
Goals for per game
1.75
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
66.7%
BTTS rate
100.0%
50
History Matches
45
1.06
Goals Mean
1.73
1.16
Goals Std
1.24
62.0%
Scored 1+ rate
82.2%
26.0%
Scored 2+ rate
53.3%
12.0%
Scored 3+ rate
26.7%
0.96
Venue Goals Mean
1.14
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.54
Goals against per game
1.49
72.0%
Conceding rate
84.4%
1.35
Goals against per game
1.62
61.5%
Conceding rate
90.5%
0.67
Goals against per game
1.50
66.7%
Conceding rate
100.0%
50
History Matches
45
1.54
Conceded Mean
1.49
1.27
Conceded Std
1.13
54.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
37.8%
18.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
17.8%
1.35
Venue Conceded Mean
1.62
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
28.0%
Clean-sheet rate
15.6%
38.0%
Failed-to-score rate
17.8%
38.5%
Clean-sheet rate
9.5%
42.3%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
28.0%
Clean-sheet rate
15.6%
38.0%
Failed-to-score rate
17.8%
38.5%
Clean-sheet rate
9.5%
42.3%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
28.0%
Clean-sheet rate
15.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
50
History Matches
45
0.95
Result entropy
0.98
1.88
Goal Difference Std
1.68
5.40
Stability score
1.71
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
49
Eligible Matches
45
11
Lead Matches
16
81.8%
Lead Win Rate
81.3%
0.85
Lead Points Retention
0.85
19
Trailing Matches
12
10.5%
Non-loss rate
25.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
16.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
49
Halftime Coverage Matches
45
0.43
First Half Goals For Mean
0.89
0.67
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.78
0.59
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.84
0.90
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.71
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
76.26
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
2
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.50
20
Normal Rest History Matches
26
1.35
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.69
25
Long Rest History Matches
16
0.96
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.44
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
4
3.00
PPG
1.50
100.0%
Win rate
25.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
75.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
0.94
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.43
3
Current Competition Matches
4
3.00
Current Competition PPG
1.50
1.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.25
7
Competition Season Count
5
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
1.08
Portability PPG Std
0.19
2.50
Portability PPG Range
0.44
31.64
Portability Score
72.00
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
50
Clean History Matches
45
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-69.03
PPG-0.51
GF-0.67
GA0.05
PPG1.50
PPG0.11
PPG0.00
PPG0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate12.4%
Failed-to-score rate20.2%
History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate28.9%
Failed-to-score rate13.7%
History Matches5
Goals Mean-0.67
Goals Std-0.08
Scored 1+ rate-0.20
Scored 2+ rate-0.27
Scored 3+ rate-0.15
Venue Goals Mean-0.18
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.03
History Matches5
Conceded Mean0.05
Conceded Std0.14
Clean-sheet rate12.4%
Conceded 2+ rate16.2%
Conceded 3+ rate0.2%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.27
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.11
History Matches5
Result entropy-0.04
Goal Difference Std0.20
Stability score3.68
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.16
Eligible Matches4
Lead Matches-5
Lead Win Rate0.6%
Lead Points Retention-0.01
Trailing Matches7
Non-loss rate-0.14
Trailing Win Rate-0.17
Halftime Coverage Matches4
First Half Goals For Mean-0.46
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.10
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.25
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.19
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.42
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.89
Portability PPG Range2.06
Portability Score-40.36
Rest days0.78
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.50
Normal Rest History Matches-6
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.34
Long Rest History Matches9
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.48
Current Team ELO-69.03
Current Opponent ELO69.03
Current ELO Difference-138.1
Expected score-0.20
History Matches5
Residual Mean-0.07
Overperformance-4.93
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.09

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Bala Town

D
Brickfield Rangers1–1Bala Town31 Oct · away
Pick: Brickfield Rangers 48% · missed
D
Llanuwchllyn3–3Bala Town24 Oct · away
Pick: Bala Town 55% · missed
L
Bala Town3–4Holyhead Hotspur17 Oct · home
Pick: Bala Town 54% · missed
L
Bala Town0–1Newtown AFC31 Aug · home
Pick: Bala Town 38% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Guilsfield

D
Guilsfield2–2Porthmadog31 Oct · home
Pick: Guilsfield 45% · missed
D
Caersws2–2Guilsfield24 Oct · away
Pick: Caersws 39% · missed
D
Coedpoeth United3–3Guilsfield17 Oct · away
Pick: Guilsfield 38% · missed
W
Guilsfield4–0Penrhyncoch31 Aug · home
Pick: Guilsfield 58% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Bala Town and Guilsfield meet in FAW Championship on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 19:45 UTC. The match is played at Maes Tegid, Bala. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Bala Town win 58.1%, draw 19.5%, Guilsfield win 22.5%. The pick is Bala Town win. Over 2.5 goals: 57.8%. Both teams to score: 55.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.