ScoreProb
Non League Premier - Northern England Round 18 2026

AFC Emley vs Whitby Town

AFC Emley Home · Elo 1,501
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Whitby Town Away · Elo 1,434
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: AFC Emley win
AFC Emley winPick
58.1%
Draw
20.6%
Whitby Town win
21.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes48.9%
No51.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.553.8%
Under 2.546.2%

How much we know

AFC Emley history44 matches
Whitby Town history65 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (58.1%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why AFC Emley are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • AFC Emley are rated 68 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,501 against 1,434. On rating alone AFC Emley would be expected to take 60% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.16 goals a game over 44 matches for AFC Emley, against 1.06 over 65 for Whitby Town.

  • AFC Emley concede fewer

    AFC Emley concede 1.00 a game, Whitby Town 1.55.

  • Whitby Town games more often go over 2.5 goals

    39% of AFC Emley matches, against 51% for Whitby Town. The model puts this match at 54% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
AFC Emley
Whitby Town
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1501.2
ELO
1433.6
44
ELO · Matches
65
1501.2
Current Team ELO
1433.6
1433.6
Current Opponent ELO
1501.2
67.67
Current ELO Difference
-67.67
0.60
Expected score
0.40
44
History Matches
65
0.00
Residual Mean
-0.05
49.82
Overperformance
45.84
0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.07
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
0.60
1.20
Goals for per game
0.40
1.00
Goals against per game
3.00
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
0.90
1.50
Goals for per game
0.90
1.00
Goals against per game
2.20
30.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.90
1.69
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.94
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.20
0.77
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.89
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.01
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.41
Overall performance9 signals
90
44
Matches
65
1.34
PPG
1.12
34.1%
Win rate
29.2%
31.8%
Draw rate
24.6%
34.1%
Loss rate
46.2%
68.2%
Over 1.5 rate
73.8%
38.6%
Over 2.5 rate
50.8%
18.2%
Over 3.5 rate
27.7%
1.86
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.81
Venue performance10 signals
100
21
Matches
34
1.81
PPG
1.18
52.4%
Win rate
32.4%
23.8%
Draw rate
20.6%
23.8%
Loss rate
47.1%
71.4%
Over 1.5 rate
73.5%
42.9%
Over 2.5 rate
58.8%
14.3%
Over 3.5 rate
35.3%
2.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.90
21
History Matches
34
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.16
Goals for per game
1.06
59.1%
Scoring rate
67.7%
38.6%
BTTS rate
50.8%
1.52
Goals for per game
1.21
71.4%
Scoring rate
67.6%
42.9%
BTTS rate
52.9%
1.00
Goals for per game
0.67
66.7%
Scoring rate
33.3%
66.7%
BTTS rate
16.7%
44
History Matches
65
1.16
Goals Mean
1.06
1.38
Goals Std
1.01
59.1%
Scored 1+ rate
67.7%
31.8%
Scored 2+ rate
26.2%
11.4%
Scored 3+ rate
9.2%
1.52
Venue Goals Mean
1.21
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.00
Goals against per game
1.55
63.6%
Conceding rate
72.3%
0.81
Goals against per game
1.74
61.9%
Conceding rate
76.5%
0.83
Goals against per game
2.67
66.7%
Conceding rate
83.3%
44
History Matches
65
1.00
Conceded Mean
1.55
0.93
Conceded Std
1.41
29.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
46.2%
6.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
21.5%
0.81
Venue Conceded Mean
1.74
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
36.4%
Clean-sheet rate
27.7%
40.9%
Failed-to-score rate
32.3%
38.1%
Clean-sheet rate
23.5%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
32.4%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
66.7%
36.4%
Clean-sheet rate
27.7%
40.9%
Failed-to-score rate
32.3%
38.1%
Clean-sheet rate
23.5%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
32.4%
36.4%
Clean-sheet rate
27.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
44
History Matches
65
1.00
Result entropy
0.97
1.86
Goal Difference Std
1.81
0.05
Stability score
3.38
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
35
Eligible Matches
65
10
Lead Matches
19
70.0%
Lead Win Rate
68.4%
0.77
Lead Points Retention
0.72
9
Trailing Matches
25
22.2%
Non-loss rate
12.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
8.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
35
Halftime Coverage Matches
65
0.51
First Half Goals For Mean
0.54
0.43
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.72
0.57
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.52
0.69
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.83
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
73.84
Rest days
73.84
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
3
1.25
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
31
Normal Rest History Matches
50
1.32
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.12
8
Long Rest History Matches
11
1.25
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.27
Competition & season17 signals
170
6
Matches
6
1.50
PPG
1.00
33.3%
Win rate
33.3%
50.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
16.7%
Loss rate
66.7%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
0.69
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.89
6
Current Competition Matches
6
1.50
Current Competition PPG
1.00
0.17
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-2.00
6
Competition Season Count
6
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.07
Portability PPG Std
0.14
0.17
Portability PPG Range
0.33
87.94
Portability Score
77.79
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
44
Clean History Matches
65
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO67.67
PPG0.22
GF0.10
GA-0.55
PPG0.50
PPG0.63
PPG1.00
PPG0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-21
Clean-sheet rate8.7%
Failed-to-score rate8.6%
History Matches-13
Clean-sheet rate14.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches-21
Goals Mean0.10
Goals Std0.37
Scored 1+ rate-0.09
Scored 2+ rate5.7%
Scored 3+ rate2.1%
Venue Goals Mean0.32
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std0.74
History Matches-21
Conceded Mean-0.55
Conceded Std-0.49
Clean-sheet rate8.7%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.17
Conceded 3+ rate-0.15
Venue Conceded Mean-0.93
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-1.11
History Matches-21
Result entropy0.03
Goal Difference Std0.05
Stability score-3.34
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.40
Eligible Matches-30
Lead Matches-9
Lead Win Rate1.6%
Lead Points Retention0.05
Trailing Matches-16
Non-loss rate10.2%
Trailing Win Rate-0.08
Halftime Coverage Matches-30
First Half Goals For Mean-0.02
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.29
Second Half Goals For Mean0.05
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.15
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean2.17
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.07
Portability PPG Range-0.17
Portability Score10.15
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match0.25
Normal Rest History Matches-19
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.20
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.02
Current Team ELO67.67
Current Opponent ELO-67.67
Current ELO Difference135.3
Expected score0.19
History Matches-21
Residual Mean0.05
Overperformance3.98
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.13

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

AFC Emley

W
AFC Emley2–0Bamber Bridge3 Nov · home
Pick: AFC Emley 57% · hit
L
Alfreton Town2–1AFC Emley31 Oct · away
Pick: Alfreton Town 58% · hit
W
AFC Emley1–0Lancaster City24 Oct · home
Pick: AFC Emley 49% · hit
W
Stockton Town1–3AFC Emley17 Oct · away
Pick: Stockton Town 50% · missed
D
United of Manchester1–1AFC Emley13 Oct · away
Pick: United of Manchester 49% · missed

Whitby Town

L
Whitby Town0–5Stockton Town31 Oct · home
Pick: Stockton Town 47% · hit
L
United of Manchester4–2Whitby Town24 Oct · away
Pick: United of Manchester 58% · hit
W
Whitby Town1–0Curzon Ashton17 Oct · home
Pick: Curzon Ashton 49% · missed
W
Workington1–2Whitby Town13 Oct · away
Pick: Workington 54% · missed
L
Whitby Town2–6Gainsborough Trinity6 Oct · home
Pick: Gainsborough Trinity 54% · hit

About this match

AFC Emley and Whitby Town meet in Non League Premier - Northern on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: AFC Emley win 58.1%, draw 20.6%, Whitby Town win 21.3%. The pick is AFC Emley win. Over 2.5 goals: 53.8%. Both teams to score: 48.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.